I agree baseball is as close at it gets to roulette, in respect to major sports betting. Numbers are our best friend for the most part. I think the idea of long term numbers makes sense in most instances. Though, my thought is that not all circumstances will back up the long term figures. Loss of key offensive players, additions/subtractions of pitchers in the starting rotation, and personel changes in the bullpen, can make a club a whole new animal the very next year. I think it comes down to, every day some guys hit real well and some guys pitch real well, taking the favorite seems to work about as well as taking the dog. That's probably not the right figure, but you dont see a more even game day in day out in basketball or football.

Just some thoughts.

Of course, I look at the long standing trends everyday, as we should look at all numbers in the game.