|
Re: Service Plays: 11/19
DOCs
3 Unit Play. #530 Take Illinois -2 ½ over Arizona State (11:30 pm ESPN 2) The Fighting Illini already have a victory over Hawaii on the islands and are catching the Sun Devils at just the right moment, as they have yet to play a game in 2007. ASU was bad last year and don’t expect much improvement early on this year. Illinois will dominate on the boards and earn their third victory of the young season. Coach Pearl has an outstanding non-conference record and does not lose many games that he is supposed to win.
3 Unit Play. #532 Take UCLA -10 over Maryland (7:00 pm ESPN 2) Maryland has underachieved for a while since winning it all early in this decade and has been a selfish team that does not play much defense. That does not bode well when playing the Bruins, the best defensive team in the country. UCLA had a great recruiting class led by Kevin Love and Ben Howland can flat out coach and now he has talent to go along with that. UCLA pulls away late to win this game by 15 points.
3 Unit Play. #533 Take Missouri +3 over Michigan State (9:30 ESPN U) The oddsmakers have failed to realize that this neutral site location greatly favors the Tigers and expect them to pack the stands with fans. Michigan State has always started out slow in past years playing a brutal non-conference schedule that prepares them well for March, but takes its toll on them in November/December. The Tigers can now play defense led by Coach Anderson’s hard noise style that he brought over from UAB and thus will earn the victory on Monday, giving us a nice underdog cash.
Ferringo
4.5-Unit Play. Take #509 Western Michigan (-2) over Detroit (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Western Michigan has won two of the last three meetings between these two schools and covered four out of six. Brandon Cotton has officially left Detroit, leaving them without their top perimeter player. WMU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games and has an advantage with experience, depth, talent and height. The average margin of victory in this series over the past 10 years is 11.8 points. And while WMU won’t win by that much, they will win handily.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 145.0 Missouri vs. Michigan State (9:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take Missouri (+3) over Michigan State (9:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Michigan State has been lackluster, at best, up to this point in the season and Missouri is a team that I have tabbed as a sleeper in the Big 12. I think that this is a great spot to collect on the under, as the Tigers’ deliberate sets against the Spartans’ physical defense will slow this tempo to a halt. Also, MSG isn’t a place that either team is used to playing so I’m expecting a lot of clankers as these teams stay in the 60’s.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #529 Arizona State (+8.5) over Illinois (11:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19) AND Take #518 Charlotte (-2.5) over Monmouth (3:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Note: This is a 5-point teaser. If you prefer, or if you use a local that doesn’t allow teasers, you can play these as straight sides for 1-Unit apiece. I like both picks and love the value of the extra points in each game, hence the teaser. Do not play ASU for less than +3.0 and do not play Charlotte above -8.0.
Illinois has yet to impress me and this is a team I’m looking to fade early in the year and play on a bit later. Arizona State is a team I’m high on and this game should be played in the 50’s so having those extra points will be a tremendous advantage. I do think the Sun Devils can win this one outright.
Monmouth is a one-dimensional team that is not highly regarded even in the NEC. Charlotte is comparable to Notre Dame and Seton Hall, two teams that thrashed Monmouth, so we’ll look for more of the same this afternoon. Also, a win in this early game sets up another middling opportunity.
Eastman
1-Unit Play Take #532 UCLA Bruins -10 over Maryland Terrapins. (Monday, November 19, 7:00 pm EST).
UCLA (3-0) has the potential to be "scary good" this season. They've started the season without All-American point guard Darren Collisonn (knee), Michael Roll (torn plantar fascia) and James Keefe (off-season foot surgery). Collison probably wont be back until late November, perhaps in time for the game against George Washington game. Even without those players, the Bruins have won their first three games by an average of 29.0 points, and freshman Kevin Love has been a big reason why. Love has scored in double figures in each of the first three games, barely missing double-doubles in the most recent two. Love, last year’s player of the year in High School, is averaging 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds. Some veteran scouts say Love is the best big man at UCLA since Bill Walton and that's high praise indeed. Maryland is also 3-0, but coach Gary Williams has been unhappy with his teams sloppy play and lack of effort. After coasting to a win over North Florida, the Terrapins have struggled since against Hampton and Northeaster, shooting 40% each game. Now they get to face Ben Howland's defense oriented team. Don't be fooled. This is NOT one of Maryland’s great teams. Instead it’s one that UCLA should handle easily.
|