Winning November (3 of 4 winning months).
14 of 18 NBA Winners (14-4 Run)
Basketball 2007: 37-18 (67%)
NBA 2007: 28-14 (67%)
College Basketball 2007: 9-4 (66%)
61% (77-48) Since July 23rd
(4 Months and Counting)
12-5 NFL POD Run.
Monday's card (2)
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NFL
Baltimore vs. New England
Earlier on last week I went with New England as one of my hilton selections. New England did not cover at home last MNF which has give Baltimore value for some, but I want you to notice a trend - it is very difficult for a team to cover a nationally televised game - as in they are the only one - such as a MNF or a Thursday Night Football game back to back. I'll give you some examples - remember when the Steelers easily handled the Ravens but then failed to cover at home against the Dolphins. Then, this team covered against the Bengals as they came back with a cover. The Packers covered very nicely at Denver on MNF yet they failed to cover at Dallas on Thursday Night Football. Vegas is very successful at making teams who seem wonderful one week, not so wonderful the following week for their cover or when they are nationally televised again. Such is the case for this Patriots team who did not cover against the Eagles, but will look to cover here as the Ravens simply seem to have trouble scoring points. The Ravens are currently in their longest losing streak of their franchise at 5 and their defense is outside the top 15th in the NFL this year. Kyle Boller is still taking snaps for this team as McNair is injured and the Ravens linebacking core is still a banged up and so are the Patriots who will be missing Roosevelt Colvin for this game. Some history - the Ravens - or the once Cleveland Browns fired Bill B back in the day and Bill B gets to face a former team that used to be his employer. Baltimore has not covered 5 ballgames while the Pats have not covered 2 of their last 3, but then again, the Pats 9-2 ATS this year while the Ravens are a startling 1-10 ATS this year. This will be a cold game and the wind will be gusting between 15-20 miles per hour and consequently, the total has come down from 51.5 to 48 . Keep in mind that the Ravens will look to this game as being their "Super Bowl" according to one of their defensive players as they are out of playoff contention.
NBA
NBA Injuries that you should be aware of if not already
Hawks: Stoudamire and Law are still questionable.
Raptors: Bosh - Doubtful
Ford - Questionable
Bargnani - Out
Utah: Jason Williams - Doubtful.
Boozer - Questionable
Okur - Questionable
Golden State: Barnes and Pietrus are Questionable.
Charlotte vs. Toronto
Charlotte has lost back to back road games including to the Bulls on the road and the Heat on the road in what was a revenge game for the Heat. They were 7 point dogs in both games and lost both by more than 15 points a piece. The Bobcats have missed 4 straight covers while the Raptors had covered 6 in a row before falling short to Washington on the road. Toronto has played in 3 straight unders at home has played in 5 of 6 overs as well. Keep in mind the injury situations for the Raptors as their big 3 are banged up for this game and it seems at least 2 of them will not play tonight but they do have young guys who are stepping up such as Jamario Moon in place. I would lean on the under but Charlott's defense has certainly been lacking on the road. Charlotte will try to at least take one of these games on their road trip but Toronto is a tough place to play as this team nearly won outright without a couple of their stars at Washington. Charlotte's problem clearly this year is their lack of bench which comes into play in the second half as their leading scorer off the bench has less than 5 points per game.
Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
Atlanta has actually covered this matchup in back to back games as they fell short in overtime last year at Philly but still covered as 9.5 dogs. The Hawks to their credit are 6-9 this year which is a vast improvement from years' past as this team looks to hover around .500 and they do come off an impressive win on the road against the Timberwolves and Miami and beating the Bucks by 16 at home. However, they fell to the Hornets recently at home as they look to bounce back. The last 6 of 7 times these two teams have met the game has gone over and the Hawks come off a dissappointing game at home where they played decent defense but struggled on offense. I would lean on the over here but the Hawks have played 6 straight unders and both teams are on bounce-backs with Philly on a bounce-back at home as they look to rebound from a tough overtime loss to New Jersey on the road.
Portland vs. Memphis
Portland covered as 2 point favorites back on November 9th winning by 12 and the last 3 times these teams met in Portland, the game went under. After starting off the year on a solid ATS run, Portland is 1-9 ATS. One of the key factors for their lack of an ATS run is the fact that this team has not been covering ballgames at home and has lost its last 9 of 10 games straight up. Portland is also having some serious issues scoring the basketball as well as the following point totals for their games are as follows: 79, 80, 89, 74 and 87 which has led to 5 straight unders. The total has been steadily coming down for this game and keep in mind that Memphis is looking for revenge from their earlier season loss. Portland is also playing back to back games as they are having a rough road trip where they lost to San Antonio by 21. Memphis has no problem blowing out teams as they blew out the Twolves by nearly 30 at home recently. I think Memphis likely covers due to the lack of Portland's offense.
Golden State vs. Orlando
Orlando has 15 wins already on the year, but as I've noted before, as soon as Jackson has come back this GS team has gone on a great ATS run. Something that I want you to note is that Orlando is a strong defensive team that does not get enough credit and has played 3 of 4 unders on this road trip and the Warriors on the road have played 6 of 7 unders.
