To Purchase Bowl Selections: Click on the following Link: All Bowl Selections for 2007 Bowl Season will be up by Sunday morning and this includes up to the National Championship Game. Best of luck. IndianCowboy - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper
December 22nd (Sat): Papa Johns.com (Alabama): Southern Miss vs. Cincy
I hate laying points but Southern Miss is a top 90 power ranked team and they face the Bearcats who are a top 15 power ranking team. I essentially have this game by the pure numbers as a win for Cincy by 15 points. Cincy has lost just 3 games this year and that was too Pitt, Louisville and West Virginia. A top 10 school, and 2 schools in the top 50 - yes, Pittsburgh is a top 50 power ranked squad. Southern Miss is a rushing team as they are top 65 in the nation offense but around 100 in passing yards but in the top 25 in rushing yards. Their defense is 50th in the nation in essentially all categories, passing, rushing and overall. The Bearcats are top 30 in the nation in offense, and top 15 in the nation in points scored. They are 25th in the nation in passing and top 60 in the nation in rushing the ball. They are an excellent rushing defense ranked in the top 20 but teams pass on them for an average of 265 yards a ballgame which puts them as one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. The irony is that Southern Miss does not pass the ball well and are a running team. The Bearcat defense is also top 20 in the nation in points allowed giving up less than 19 points a contest and considering they were in the Big East, this is quite a feat. Keep in mind the Bearcats were 8-2-1 ATS and 9-3 overall. These 2 teams actually met in 2004 when Cincy won 52-24 as 5.5 dogs. So, Southern Miss does have a bit of a revenge coming into this game. The total for this game has taken a sharp rise above from opening in the low 50's while the side has remained steady for the most part. The advantage for Southern Miss in this game is the fact this game is played in Alabama which they can travel a bit better to. The last time Cincy played teams that were outside the top 80, these were the results:
Away: Against a top 90 Miami of Ohio team - winning 47-10.
Home: Against a top 100 ranked Marshall team beating them 40-14
Away: Against a top 90 San Diego State beating them 52-23.
The last 2 times that Southern Miss has played teams that were in the top 50, their only 2 times that is: The results were as follows:
Away: Against a top 20 Tennessee team losing 19-39 Tennessee
Away: Against a top 50 Boise State team losing 16-38.
I think this game likely goes over as I think Cincy ends up winning this game but Southern Miss will want to send its coach off with a win after his 17 year tenure at Southern Miss.
December 22nd (Sat): Pioneer Las Vegas: UCLA vs. BYU
I have BYU as a top 25 power ranking team and UCLA as a top 40 power ranking team. Keep in mind this game is being played in Las Vegas but the UCLA faithful will travel well there. I have UCLA losing this game by a field goal, but I'll be frank, I don't trust UCLA football and I never will. This team is as fickle as they come. This is an intriguing matchup because these 2 teams have already played earlier this year with UCLA winning at home 27-17 but keep in mind that BYU is a much different team as since starting the season 1-2, they have gone on to win their last of their last 8 and are on a 7 game winning streak. In fact, this team is now ranked 19th in the nation. Keep in mind that this line has gone up to 6 in some places. BYU has the 15th ranked best offense in the nation overall, the 13th best passing attack and the 60th best rushing attack. On defense, this team 10th in the nation overall, 13th in the nation in points allowed, 9th in the nation rushing yards and top 45 in the nation in passing yards allowed. UCLA is top 100 in the nation in offense, only scored 17 points on this BYU defense the first time around at home, and on defense they are top 35 in the nation to their credit but 71st in passing yards allowed, although they do have a solid run defense. This could be a bit of a letdown for BYU as they face a UCLA team that has a ton of injuries and is banged up. Keep in mind that UCLA went 2-5 to close the season and the AP reports just 5 offensive touchdowns in its last 4 games. BYU will want to make a case next year for a better bowl game and I believe all the motivation they need for this game is revenge and the head coach for UCLA will not be on the sideline as he has been fired. I think this is a bad spot for UCLA as this likely goes to BYU by a double-digit margin - this game is likely to go under as well.
December 23rd (Sun): Sheraton Hawaii: Boise State vs. East Carolina
I make it a point to not bet against Boise State, but a lot of interesting things going on with this game. My math formula has Boise State winning this game by 9. There is also quite a bit of reverse line movement in this game as the opening line on this game was around -11 and yet it has gone down despite 80% of the public being on Boise State. Boise has a way of covering ballgames despite what the spread is, however, Hawaii did not treat them well last time as they lost on the road to Hawaii for the conference championship. I saw a consensus wager where over 2000 votes was on Boise State and just 500 was on East Carolina. Thus, this is the biggest public game on the board with Boise State as the heaviest favorite for Bowl Season 2007. It is very tough to bet against a Boise State team that has covered this spread that is laid on them the past 6 games if you take out the Hawaii game. East Carolina is 72nd in the nation in offense but a top 40 rushing team but one of the worst teams in the nation in stopping the pass which is what yields this high total for this game. Boise State is 10th in the nation in total offense and top 30 in the nation in the pass and the rushing offense. This should give fits to a team that is so horrible on pass defense. Boise State is a very good defense overall as they are top 30 to 35 in most defensive categories. I try to stay away frmo any game in Hawaii as I think that entire state is shady when it comes to ATS covers. But, with the bit of reverse line movement, I would not be surprised if East Carolina sneaks in for the backdoor in this game.
December 26th (Wed): Motor City (Detroit): Purdue vs. Central Michigan
The true opening of this line was around -4 for Purdue and it took a quick hike up to about -9.5 in early line movement and now it has come back down to -7.5 prior to gametime this afternoon. The total opened up at 67 and quickly took a hike as well. I have Central Michigan as a top 70 team and Purdue as a top 55 team facing each other. Purdue comes into this game having lost 3 in a row however but they were all tough conference losses to Penn State on the road but covering the 8 point spread, losing to Michigan State by 17 at home as 4 point chalk and losing to Indiana on the road as a small favorite as the game went under 61 points. Central Michigan had played in 7 straight overs after playing an under against Miami of Ohio but still winning 35-10 on the road as 3 point road chalk. Besides that horrible game against Clemson, during that streak, Central Michigan has dropped at least 35 points on each team. Keep in mind that this is essentially a home game for Central Michigan as it is in their home state although the Purdue Boilermakers do travel well. Central Michigan is the 21st ranked offense in the nation as they are 32 and 36 in their respective passing and rushing attack and the defense is 112th in passing defense and top 70 in rushing defense, but still ranked 107th overall in the nation in yards allowed. Purdue is 37th overall on offense, 18th in passing and top 40 in the nation in rushing. Purdue's defense is actually respectable as they are 62nd overall in the nation, 71st against the pass and 56th against the rush. They are top 50 in the nation in points allowed at 24.8. These 2 teams did meet earlier this year as Purdue won 45-22 and a total of 67 points were scored. Don't forget that Purdue has lost the previous 3 bowl games. Tough to call a side here as Central Michigan has not done well against top 60 team all year and I would not be surprised if this game goes under.
December 27th (Thu): Pacific Life Holiday (San Diego) Arizona State vs. Texas
I can't wait for this game. In part because it is a Pac-10 vs. a Big 12 game but also because I like Erickson and what he has done with the Arizona State team. This game opened at a PK and quickly moved in favor of Texas at -2.5. The public is riding the Longhorns a bit more at 55% and the total has jumped from 60 to 62. Keep in mind that Arizona State is ranked higher than Texas coming into this game and Arizona State has the home field advantage so to speak as compared to Texas, but the Longhorns given the respect that Big 12 Football gets, given the success they have in years' past, get the love over the PAC 10 Arizona State team. The Texas defense has been subject of late going over the last 3 ballgames giving up 35 points to Oklahoma State and 38 points to Texas A&M. Arizona State has lost 4 straight covers which is another reason the public doubts the higher ranked Sun Devils a bit more. Texas is 14th in the nation in offense which might surprise some folks and top 55 in the nation in defense. Arizona State's offense is not as prolific as this team is ranked top 55 on offense, while their passing game is top 40 in the nation, the Sun Devil defense is top 30 in the nation, as they are 12th in the nation in stopping the run and 22nd in points allowed. I believe Arizona State is a lot like UCLA in the way their defense carries the way for this ballclub - granted unless they are facing USC where they got torched for 44 points. This team has faced a 26-40 ranked team just once thus far and defeated them and that was 24-20 against UCLA on the road. Arizona State's offense has been held in check for the most part when facing the better teams in the nation - and higher power rankings, for example: they have faced 5 top 50 teams in a row and their point totals are as follows in order: 31 (cal), 23 (oregon), 24 (ucla), 24 (usc) and 20 against Arizona. Consequently, Arizona State has played the under in 4 of their last 5 ballgames. The Longhorns were outside the top 100 in pass defense and that flat out killed this team as they were thrown all over on the road especially - not to mention for 41 points against Kansas State at home.
Mack Brown stated that all jobs were open for the Longhorns after the game against the Aggies where if they won, they could have played for a BCS bowl game, needless to say, Texas comes into this game fired up after their poor performance, which is another reason why this team is favored for this ballgame . Mixed feelings about this game as my power ranking shows Arizona State by a field goal, yet I like the Longhorns as they will be more prepped for this game. A lean on the under here as Erickson is a defensive coach and I think turnovers will be likely for both squads - Arizona State is top 5 in the nation in sacks allowed and Texas is top 75 in turnover differential as McCoy turned the ball over heavily this year.
December 28th (Fri): Champ Sports (Orlando) BC vs. Michigan State
Boston College is a top 15 power ranked team they come off losing 3 of their last 5 ballgames including the home loss to Virginia Tech by a final score of 16-30 for the ACC Championship. Now, this team that was once 7-0 sits at 9-3 and faces a Michigan State team that is top 50 in the power ranking in the nation. Some might have expected the line to be higher, yet 70%+ of the public is riding Boston College to beat Michigan State. The line actually opened up at -3 for Boston College and now sits at -5 as people are preferring the once 2nd ranked squad over the Big 10 school. One thing you have to admire about Michigan State is their ability to put up points. Their lowest output of the season was 17 points on the road against Ohio State and at home against Pitt and besides that they have been able to put up points with relative ease. Theier defense has also give up at least 24 points in their last 7 contests. Somethin to note is that whenever Boston College faces teams that around the top 40 range, the game typically goes over. Michigan State to their credit put up considerable points on a Penn State team that prouds itself on defense and dropped 30 on them. Spartans are 35th in the nation in total offense as they are 60th in the pass and 25th with the run. Their defense is roughly top 40 in the nation and they are top 60 in points allowed. Boston College is the #1 team in the land as it relates to rush defense, but 105th in passing yards allowed. BC is 6th in the nation in passing and 106th in rush defense. I expect both teams to air the ball out today.
December 28th (Fri): Texas Bowl (Houston): TCU vs. Houston
I have TCU as a top 60 team facing a Houston team that is top 80 in the nation. The public currently likes TCU as a 58% favorite which explains why the line has shot up a big as TCU is also more of a public team than Houston. TCU has lost 5 games this year and they were top 40 Texas and Air Force on the road. The did lose to top 80 Wyoming at home and lost to top 40 BYU and away and home. They face a Houston team that is top 80 once again and I have them winning this game right around the spread. Against similarly ranked teams this team was averaging around 45 to 50 points per ballgame and are 3-2 ATS - similarly ranked top 60 to 90 ranked teams that is. TCU did open as a 4 point favorite and the line has continued to rise. All of Houston's wins come against teams that are outside the top 75. In fact, their wins come against teams that are outside the top 80 as the best team they have beat this season is top 85 Colorado State. Whenever this team has played a team within the top 60 such as TCU, they have not fared well. Their losses this year come against top 70 Tulsa 7-56 and they lost to Oregon 27-48. To this team's credit, they did lose to Alabama 24-30 on the road and East Carolina defeated them 35-37 at home as well who are top 50 and tpo 80 ballclubs. These teams actually met in 2004 with TCU winning 34-27 and covering thsi similar spread right around -6.5 as the game went under the total at that time which was set at 65. Houston has played the under in 5 straight games and has scored at least 34 points in 7 straight ballgames. TCU has the 65th best offense in the nation while having a top 20 defense and Houston comes out of the Conference USA - the same conference that featured Central Florida and Memphis who faced each other in the first bowl game of the year - high powered offenses. Houston has the 4th ranked offense in the nation and the 49th best defense. TCU is top 20 in the nation in rushing yards allowed and total points allowed.
Keep in mind that Houston's head coach left the team for Baylor and took some of the coordinators along with him so they will not be here for this game. Why is this a big deal? Well, considering the head coach also called the offensive plays, this is a big deal as he did call the offense for the 4th ranked offense in the nation.
December 28th (Fri): Emerald Bowl (San Fran): Maryland vs. Oregon State
This game comes down to really do you trust ACC football? Here you have Maryland, a team that is very good at times this year who have had some faulty games, catching 5 points against Oregon State. The Terps were just 90th in the nation on offense as they were 70th in rushing and 80th in passing yards. The Terp defense ranked 40th to 45th in most categories but did rank top 30 in points allowed. I have the Terps losing this game by a field goal as they are a top 40 power ranked team. Maryland does have wins against Rutgers on the road, Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State. To Oregon State's credit, they are ranked in the top 20 in the power ranking but one of those wins comes against Oregon who was shorthanded without their starting quarterback yet they nearly lost that game as they won 38-31. Oregon State ranks as the 11th best defense in the country as they are 2nd in the nation in rush yards but 72nd in the nation in passing yards allowed. Both teams have won their respective bowl games the last 3 years under their current coaches as the AP reports.
December 29th (Sat): Meineke (Charlotte): Uconn vs. Wake
Interesting note about this game is that that the line actually was around -5.5 in favor of Wake, but has come down to a couple points as the public is 50/50 on both of these teams. Uconn is a top 85 team in the nation on offense and on defense this team is 34th. The Huskies are 16th in the nation in pass defense and 65th in the nation in rush defense while being 12th in the nation in points allowed. Wake is a top 100 offense as they are a bit weaker on offense than Uconn and ranked 41st in the natino in defense overall. Thus, they are a bit better on offense than Wake, but a bit weaker on defense. However, Wake is top 80 in the nation in defense and 16th in the nation in rushing yards allowed. Wake is 36th in the nation points allowed. Thus, in most categories, Uconn is slightly better than Wake but that also figures in to your respect to the Big East and ACC Football. Both teams are very well coached and Uconn comes off that embarrassing loss to West Virginia 21-66. Both teams have done very well in covering the spread this year as Conn was 7-3 ATS and Wake was 8-4 ATS. I have Conn and Wake as both in the top 30 in the power rankings. Wake is 1-2 against top 30 power ranked teams however Uconn is 1-3 against top 30 power ranking teams as well. I have Uconn as a slightly better ranked team than Wake but it could be decided by a field goal either way.
December 29th (Sat): Autozone (Memphis,TN): UCF vs. Miss. State
I want you to note that Kevin Smith ran for more than a 170 yards in each of his last 7 ballgames. Central Florida is ranked top 30 in the nation in offense and 60th in the nation on defense. Keep in mind that UCF will look to run the ball and Miss. State is 113th in the nation on offense and just 108th in passing yards as this team is a defensive team overall. They are 10th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 70th in the nation in rushing yards allowed but UCF will stick to what brought them to the dance which is rushing the ball with Smith continuously and look for Miss State to put an extra man in the box. UCF is ranked just 100th in passing yards so this game should be primarily won or lost on the ground. I believe this game likely goes under today and I would not be surprised if Miss. State won this game outright given that UCF has not beat a top 40 team all year and Miss. State does have losses but they come to the likes of Arkansas, WVU, Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina, which Central Florida has beat a lot of teams outside the top 80 and I think the Bulldogs could pull the outright upset here.
December 30th (Sun): Petro Sun (LA): Colorado vs. Alabama
This game is in Louisiana as essentially the Tide travel well and have a small advantage coming into this game with respect to the crowd. The Tide are just 6-6 this season and as a Bama fan I can personally tell you there were 4 things that the Crimson Tide wanted to accomplish this year:
1) Hire a coach of strong reputation and sign him to a long-term contract - They got their first choice - Accomplished.
2) Win 7 or more ballgames - Not Accomplished.
3) Beat Auburn - Not Accomplished (6 years of losing and counting - as a Tide fan, I know)
4) Win a Bowl Game - ?
Thus, Saban, had just 3 goals to accomplish this year - #2 to #4 and the first 2 have not been accomplished. He has a chance to salavage at least one of these goals in this bowl game.
Don't forget that the AP Reports that it was Saban's "colorful quotes" is what kept the South Carolina Gamecocks - one of just 10 SEC teams that were bowl eligible - not to get a bowl game as the Tide were selected over South Carlolina for this contest .
There are some important facts that you should know including that the Tide defense and Colorado defense are both suspect. The Buffs defense is ranked 66th overall, but a closer look will tell you that their pass defense is ranked 104th in the nation, but their run defense is 32nd and they are 80th in points allowed. The Buffs are 73rd in the nation in points scored. The Tide have the 76th best offense, are roughly top 30 in the nation in defense overall.
I have the Tide as a top 45 team in the nation (to South Carolina's credit, I had them as a top 40 team and that is coming from a Tide fan as realy South Carolina should have deserved this bid, but the Tide did play in this bowl game last year and provided one of the best games of the Bowl Season 2006). The Tide have lost their last 4 straight and they face a Buff team that is ranked in the top 50. Essentially, the Tide are 5 spots higher. I think this game is likely to go over here as the Buffalo defense is suspect both at home and on the road in giving up points - but they can also exploit the lack of linebacker play for Bama that are just getting used to Saban's system. I have this game around 31-28.
