THE SPORTS REPORTER


****RECOMMENDED****

NEW ENGLAND over NY GIANTS by 6
[NY Giants, plus the points. It’s only one game, never overbet it.] Sports Reporter community:
You just won three straight NFL post-season Best Bets on the San Diego
Chargers. Where are you going next? ‘’We’re going to the Super Bowl!” Not with the
Chargers, but hey, that’s okay. They were a fun and profitable point-spread play while
they lasted. What do we have here? It looks very similar to the situation described last
week regarding New England. Bill Belichick is now the guy who Bill Belichick used to
beat. He is the big favorite who, if he continues to play the same way that got him here,
can be defended against in an opposing team’s effort to keep the game close and be in
it with a chance to win it at the end. Belichick’s own reputation and upwardly mobile path
was created that way 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXV against the Buffalo Bills, a landmark
game frequently referenced by us for the ultimate in offensive/defensive mesh --
being able to control the clock with and without the ball, taking away what a cocky offensive
opponent does best and forcing them to do something they wouldn’t necessarily
choose to do in order to avoid losing. Hey, Belichick was the guy whose defense beat Bill
Walsh-Joe Montana-Jerry Rice, and Jim Kelly-Thurman Thomas-Andre Reed within
seven days that season, supported by a no-name offense. He was the guy whose Patriots
were once 5-0 SU vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts, forcing Manning to become a more
patient passer, (and prompting the NFL to alter rules against defensive players which
now lead to cheap offensive gains via defensive penalties that have really cheapened
this sport). He was the guy who, with the 2001 New England underdogs, took down the
St. Louis Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf at +14. That’s the Belichick you look forward to
betting on in the post-season: the big underdog who is forced to break with tendencies
and come up with a different, creative package against a supremely talented but stubborn
opponent, and who also has the ability to sell that package to a group of experienced
players smart enough to buy into it.
But that role is not available to him here. Belichick is now – irony of ironies -- Mike Martz.
Lopsided early-season wins against a bunch of tomato cans and other teams in transitional
states (like the Chargers, who fell 38-14 at New England in Week 2), have created
not just a 18-0 SU record to be protected, but two-score point-spread differences.
This is the NFL, where margins of that size are usually unsustainable by virtue of the very
parity the NFL is designed to create. That axiom has been proven – or appears to have
been proven – in the 1-7 ATS exploits of bandwagon jumpers laying points on New
England in the last eight games played by the 18-0 SU Patriots. The spread failures and
narrower victory margins began against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson is the guy who tutored current Giants’ defensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo. The Eagles did their best to take away the deep pass from Tom Brady to
Randy Moss, changed defensive alignments, and pressured Tom Brady. Because
Philadelphia had some dynamic defensive personnel and was not a soft, lame-butt or
transitioning defense like the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills or Miami
Dolphins units that New England had feasted on earlier, they were able to play this way
and come close to winning. That was the “13 catches by Wes Welker” game. If you’re
playing against New England, you want Wes Welker to catch 13 passes because his
yards per catch of 10.5 is 33% lower than Moss’ ypc, and Moss caught three times as
many TD passes as Welker despite having 14 fewer receptions.
If Belichick is the one who must change anything to adapt to what the opponent is doing
– like running Laurence Maroney a season-high 22 to 26 times against the New York
Jets, and in both playoff wins against Jacksonville and San Diego – then he is getting
away from the big pass plays that powered the Patriots to the early blowout wins that
earned them their inflated power rating. The Pats are 0-3 ATS in games with 22 or more
carries by Maroney.
Before the season, Tom Coughlin said that he wanted the Giants to play like the NBA’s
champion San Antonio Spurs. Steady, unspectacular, fundamentally sound, accountable
to themselves and their teammates, and with respect for the coaches. Luckily for them,
The Man Who Loves Himself, Tiki Barber, quit after last season and Jeremy Shockey, The
Most Overrated Tight End That Ever Lived, was injured and “lost” for the season in Week
15. Note that the Giants are 5-0 ATS in the five games Shockey has missed. It’s good to
be doubly disease-free. Coughlin was on that 1990 New York Giants Super Bowl staff
with Belichick. He was coaching the no-name wide receivers Baker, Ingram and Manuel.
(Who?) He knows Belichick, he knows people who know Belichick. He knows that he has
the option of playing like Belichick used to play, and that Belichick knows as well as anyone
that if New York does play like Belichick used to play, then Belichick shouldn’t be a
14-point favorite in this game.
Spagnuolo replaced Tim Lewis as Giants’ defensive coordinator after last season. The
last “Lewis off” team was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl after
Lewis was canned after 2004 and replaced by **** LeBeau. Spagnuolo has two weeks
to consider and possibly practice 5- and 6-defensive back alignments to disrupt Tom
Brady’s timing. In other words, take a page from Belichick’s book. When Spagnuolo was
a defensive assistant in Philadelphia four years ago, the Eagles were –3 in turnovers but
lost by only 3 points to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. While Terrell Owens had the kind
of monster receiving game that the Giants’ Plaxico Burress just had against the Packers,
“New England handled frequent blitzes, Deion Branch caught four passes for 71 yards
on a series…” and, according to Branch, “We did a great job of adjusting during the
game. It was physical. A lot of guys were bumped and bruised." So, is there really a
major on-field difference between then, and now?
The key to the whole game is for the Giants to not trail by two scores. Supported by
return units that secure good starting field position, New York is usually well-balanced
enough on offense to avoid that situation as long as turnovers are avoided, as they have
been so far in the ’07 post-season. But if a two-score Giants deficit materializes, a savvy
New England defense can gamble against and bait Eli Manning. Experienced gamblers
with a lead, vs. a still-young quarterback, would probably press their advantage and win
easily. So here’s hoping the Giants don’t get all “Packer proud” and expose their secondary
to excessive, stubborn man coverage that allows big plays or big, cheap gains
via penalties. Make the Patriots work and sweat for their yards. New England averaged
24 first downs per game during the regular season, 24.5 in the two playoff wins. But in
games against opponents whose offenses averaged 22 first downs (Indianapolis), 20
(Philadelphia), 20 (NY Giants) and 20 (Jacksonville), the Patriots did not cover the spread.
Geez, if only Eli was capable of scrambling for a few first downs like Jeff Hostetler was,
the Giants would win this game outright. NEW ENGLAND, 30-24.