Best of fortune to all who play

3/15/2008:

2007-08 NBA-CBB combined 262-224, 53.9%

Overall: 404-341, 54.2%

Current Bankroll: 7,900

Today’s wagers for Saturday March 15th:

$330 to win $300 Clemson +4.5

Just as much as UNC & Duke are the solid top two in the ACC that same thing can be said for Clemson. The Tigers are just as good on defense as any of these four teams remaining here today with a 0.97 defensive Points/Possession (DPP) (same as UNC-Va Tech & Duke). Clemson has never beaten Duke (at least not to my knowledge) yet we have a very small line of four sitting out there. My Rankings have Duke sitting at 5th and Clemson at a solid 14th nationally. Duke has covered the last two meetings but you have to go way back in time to find three straight covers by the Blue-Devils. Duke is only 3-2 SU this year verses teams that like an up tempo game (average 62 or more shots/game). Clemson meanwhile is 7-3 SU this season verses teams that are making 37% or more from behind the arc. This may be the day Tiger fans!

$330 to win $300 Wisconsin -3

I have Wisconsin ranked 3rd nationally. They have an OPP of 1.07 on offense and a defensive OPP (offensive points/possession) of 0.89 (very solid). Michigan State is ranked 17th for me (actually second in the Big 10) as they have an offensive OPP of 1.03 and a DPP of 0.96. Wisconsin has won six straight ATS and as far as I know they’ve not won seven straight ever (0-1 going for it). The line of three is also scary as the public is on them at around a 73% clip (not always a good thing). That defensive edge and they way they run their offense has me thinking that this game will be much like last year conference tourney result a win for the Badgers with a score of 70-57 as four point favorites.

$330 to win $300 Illinois -2

The Gophers are feeling the love today with that unreal win last night. Now they’re getting points against a six conference winning team in Illinois. The books know what they are doing here as I can see Minnesota backers going to the line rather heavily. No bull**** though I have Illinois ranked 37th compared to Minnesota’s 52nd. Some may ask why that is well it’s simple. Strength of schedule and how each team has played to it. By my numbers Illinois played a SOS ranking of 21st nationally while Minnesota played the 252nd SOS. The Illini have an OPP of 0.98 and a defensive PP of 0.98 as well. Minnesota (playing the 252nd SOS) has an OPP of 0.99 and defensive points/possession of 1.02 (third worse in the Big 10). Illinois has the slipper on now they just have to execute against the young Gophers. BTW I love what Tubby has going up there, but today I believe they get caught.

That’s it for 4:00 EST or earlier games. I’ll be back shortly with the rest of my board.

GL

Doc