Best of fortune to all who play

3/16/2008:

2007-08 NBA-CBB combined 265-225, 54.0%

Overall: 407-342, 54.3%

Current Bankroll: 8,470

Today’s wagers for Sunday March 16th:

$330 to win $300 North Carolina -5.5

Yesterday I called for Clemson to finally break that generation long SU losing streak against Duke. Today after such a win they probably feel like they’ve won the ACC Championship already. UNC got a scare from my Hokies yesterday, and haven’t fared well of late ATS wise. They’ve only covered once in their last five games, and so the public has lost their favor with them betting wise. UNC has my 6th place ranking nationally and Clemson has a ranking of 14th from me. Both teams have a defensive points per possession average of 0.97. UNC has an offensive points/possession number of 1.11 and Clemson sits at 1.05. The Tarheels went well below their average yesterday against Virginia Tech with a measly 0.89, but with a defensive rating of 0.90 they were able to pull out the win. Today they play a much more up tempo team in Clemson which is the way Carolina likes to do it. The Tigers have an offensive OPP of 1.05. They’ve put a huge scare into the Tarheels big time both games they played this season. The Tigers hit their OPP & DPP numbers yesterday with a number of 1.06 and 0.97. In the process they cashed us a nice win ticket. However unlike yesterday North Carolina has huge respect for Clemson. You see they had beaten Virginia Tech by 50 or so points a few weeks earlier. No matter what you tell those kids they still can’t get up but so much for such an opponent. That almost bit them yesterday, and I expect full concentration from these Tar-Heels today. They have the edge on offense the tempo of the game will be in their favor and they catch their opponent in a possible over celebration mode. Throw the lack of recent success against the spread and I’m going to pull the trigger on the mid-ranged favorite.

GL

Doc