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A.S.W.A. · #19 (**permalink**) 05-10-08, 01:45 PM

Plays for Saturday 5.10.08

TOTAL SYSTEM 12-3, +1180 in a little over a weeks time!!(2 series pending)
INNING SYSTEM 12-2, +1100 last 5 days!!(3 series pending)

The "TOTAL" System:
2* BAL/KC OVR 8.5 (Series is 1-1)
2* BOS/MIN UND 9 (Series is 0-1)

"1st Frame" Inning System: Will either team score in 1st inning?
2* FLA/WSH (YES)--- Added continuation series. Play until a series win is acheived.
2* BOS/MIN (NO)
2* PHI/SF (YES)
2* HOU/LAD (YES)

The UNDERDOG System:
3* CINCY +250
This line has absolutely risen to the max now at $250 comeback on Cincy and I am all over it. I have alot more confidence on this one than a basic dog system play for several reasons. Belisle matches up better than Arroyo in this game vs. Santana and the Mets. I always play these for action and not listed. Santana lays alot of juice at home and with no run support in 90% of his starts the "dog" is the better wager. On top of that, Santana will allow runs against a good hitting club. He almost lost the Pirates game and lost the Brewer home game. I think the reds bats can get to him to give Belisle the edge. Santana is also 1-2 in day games on the season. Now Matt Belisle does have an era close to 7 on the season but last season stifled the Mets in NY allowing 1 earned over 7 innings. He is a bright starter who can get the job done against this team. Matt Belisle should be able to go at least 6 today and I feel the Reds bats and his pitching combined can get them a win here today. Cincy 4-3 in another tight game for Santana and his non-run support. This time he will be on the other end of a one run game.

Added TOTALS:
1* FLA/WSH OVER 9.5
This is my top total play of the day. Still flat wagered as the same with the others listed. I like this game simply becasue when these teams get together runs a plenty are scored and you throw in Miler and O'Conner and you should have yourself a score-fest. Money is coming in on the under for some reason but I see no valid points why that would be. Is it because Miller has kind of settled down? Or does the public think O'Conner will be lights out? I see neither happening as past performance against the opponent is too obvious. Miller did only allow 3 against the Nats at home but 6 earned in Washington. He lets up alot of early runs. He's averaging 5 earned in his recent road starts and I see this continuing tonight. O'Conner also has struggled, against Florida that is, allowing 10 runs in 2 starts. He has looked decent at home most recently (in 2006) allowing 1 run over 3 starts in his last stint. He comes back to the starting role today looking for improvement but hes coming back against the wrong team. This one could be close either way as these teams play tight ball high or low scoring. Look for a 7-6 game but more importantly 13+ runs to cross in tonights match-up.

1* ATL/PIT UNDER 9.5
Chuck James goes for the Braves and faces Tom Gorzelanny. Tommy G has struggled a little against the Braves. Won't look as good as Snell did last night. The key to this game is the pitching of James who has completely dominated the Pirates in 2 starts. 0 earned. This is probably the team he would love to start against. I think this can continue. The Braves have found ways to win games of late and after losing another record setting 1 run game(most in league), I think they bounce back tonight. They should be able to put up at least 5 tonight, but I see a lopsided outcome with a 5-2 or 5-3 type game. I like 7 or 8 to come out max. I think in Pit, this line should be 8.5 to 9 runs. They have it at 9.5 and that is just inflated due to James' recent history and his e.r.a. I think he'll pitch fine this evening.

1* ARI/CHC OVER 8.5
A mid-afternoon game on Saturday for these clubs. Max Scherzer faces Ryan Dempster. Scherzer only lasted 4 innings against Philly in his lne start this season. The books tend to under value or even over estimate totals in match-ups that pit a newcomer. A prime example was in Tim Lincecum's first start in the bigs. The total was 7 I think and he allowed 5 runs very early in the game. The same here for Scherzer. He may have looked great other than pitching in the majors but the Cubs could get to him. I usually like going by past performance or an average of at least 3 allowed for pitchers like Scherzer. The key to this game is Dempster though, the opposition. He has looked good at home so far this season allowing 11 over 4 home starts but Arizona can hit the ball and his previous numbers against this team show that as well. He averages 4 runs a start over his career against the D-Backs and I see this continuing today. This game should go over by the 5th or 6th inning even if Scherzer puts together a 6 or 7 inning performance. Like the D-Backs to win this one and with the pens I don't expect much scoring late. I like a 7-4 game today. Play the over 8.5
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