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A.S.W.A. · #29 (**permalink**) 05-13-08, 04:13 PM

Plays for Tuesday 5.13.08

Monday's re-cap can be found below. Week 1 in May: +3100 all sports!!!

TOTAL SYSTEM (13-4, +1360 in less than 2 weeks, with 2 series pending and 1 new series)
INNING SYSTEM (18-3, +2250 last 8 days, and an added 7 new system plays tonight)

The "TOTAL" System: (listed pitchers must go for action on all totals plays)
2* NYY/TB OVER 8.5
2* SEA/TEX UNDER 9.5
2* MIN/TOR UNDER 9

"1st Frame" Inning System: Will either team score in 1st inning?
4* ATL/PHI (YES) (Continuation series and a regular system play reason for 4*)
2* SD/CHC (YES) (Part of the continuation or starting a new continuation.)
2* OAK/CLE (NO)
2* BOS/BAL (NO)
2* COL/ARI (YES)
-------------------(I over-looked these 2 last night so play with caution. Both are 4 gm series)
2* SEA/TEX (YES)
2* CHW/LAA (NO)

The UNDERDOG System:
1* Washington +185
Lannan has pitched exceptionally well on the road of late including a 1 earned run performance against them back in April. I think books are speculating that the Mets got clobbered last night and are on the revenge kick, but it could mean a new slump for this team. Maine can out pitch the Nats allowing an average of 2.5 runs over his last 4 starts against them at home. Look for this game to come down to bullpen pitching if Lannan can keep his team in this game. The public loves NY tonight and the line is rising. Jumping on this now, who knows if it will go higher or lower. I feel comfortable with it as it is. Think the Nats can squeak one out here tonight.

Added TOTALS:
1* COL/ARI UNDER 9
This is always a fun series to watch. I wanted to pull the trigger on Johnson vs. the Cubs but they saved him for tonight as this is a much more important game. Johnson ptches well aainst Colorado as he does against the Cubs. I like the under tonight as much as I liked the total in the game Sunday. It is set high because Johnson is older and less effective and Francis has started off pretty bad with an era of 5+. I think Francis bounces back tonight and get his first win of the season. I don't expect many to be put up. I can see the Rocks getting out to a 3-1 early lead and holding it. Look for no more than 6 runs here unless both pitchers struggle in the early going. Francis has allowed 7 earned in his last trip to Arizona but his previous 4 starts there he allowed only 5 runs. I think history speaks. Johnson, pitching in Arizona against these Rockies has allowed only 5 earned in his last 5 starts. Out of the 5, 3 of those starts were scoreless ptched games for Johnson. 3-2 or 4-2 game here.

1* BOS/BAL UNDER 8.5
This line got bumped to 8.5 late last night at some books. Beckett and Guthrie go head to head and the last time these 2 faced off it was a 3-2 game. I like the trend to continue here. Both teams rely on good pitching especially in this series. Beckett has only had one bad start against the O's in his last 6, a 5 earned run performance in which he lost but he did go 8 innings strong and the under in that game still came in. Beckett has played the under 4 of 5 in his last 5 starts against Baltimore. Besides that 5 earned performance he is lightning against this team only allowing 2 runs most of the time. Guthrie on the other side has seen troubles this season, having a couple of tough outings, nothing real bad, but no support. 3 of his last 4 road starts have gone under. He has pitched well against Boston in last years 3 outings, allowing just 5 runs in 18 and 2/3 innings. At home he shut down Boston and held them to 2 runs over 5 innings. I wouldn't expect more than 6 to cross in this game as well with a 3-2 or 4-2 type game also.

Monday's re-cap(5.12.08)
Aftermath Sports picked up 2 more wins on Monday with the Inning System. Seems as though it is too good to be true. We'll see how it holds up. Unfortunately besides that I was on the wrong side of some plays yesterday. The Braves and Pirates got a pushed total yesterday after neither team could hit late in the game. The marlins over was an easy win after it looked bleak early on in a 3-0 game going into the middle innings. Florida allowed some middle inning runs. More than some and I nailed the over a little after the game was halfway through. The Total System couldn't get it done last night as the Seattle/Texas game was done after a 5-1 first inning. At that point you knew it was going to be one of thos nights. The Yanks and Pettite allowed runs but couldn't hit Garza which was surprising. One run away from pushing that game. The series aren't over yet so I have to bounce back big with those Total System series plays tonight to force a deciding game. I could've played an under in the Boston game 4 to try to get even in that weekend series but I took the loss because I didn't like either starter last night and even doesn't do the system any good. Nice call on that one. All in all I picked up positive units on Monday, not what was wanted but we'll see how Tuesday and Wednesday turns out. 2-0 on system plays with 2 pending, some new ones upcoming but overall it was a 3-2-1, +0.6* day. Better than a losing day so I'll take it!
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