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Old 06-12-08, 01:20 PM
lillefty lillefty is offline
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Re: lillefty's plays 6/12

NBA 175-145-7 .$ +.4094.50 thu 3-0 $ 1,513
CBB 194-176-6 $ -.......9.00
MLB 218-198-6 .$ +.6670.00 Thu 5-1 $ + 1,394
NHL 22-30-2.... $ - ..350.75
NFL 7-7 ..........$ -....123.50
CFB 6-3 ..........$ +...213.00
props 1-0.........$ +...500.00
tot 622-559-21 $ +.11444.75
Parlays 4-16 ....$ +....796.65 thu 1-0 $ + 377.65
tot since jan 1..$ +..12240.40
_______________________________
starting bankroll $7,500 on jan 1
Jan totals 134-107-6 .$ + 1,439.25
Feb totals 94-105-5 ..$ - 1,139.50 (+299.75 ytd)
Mar totals 106-90-2 ..$ + 881.50(+ 1,181.25 ytd)
apr totals 136-133-5..$ + 774.50(+ 1,955.75 ytd)
may totals 118-91-3..$ + 5,954.00(+ 7,909.75 ytd)
________________________________
pending futures bets....
redsox under 93 wins lay $550 to make $500
_____________________________________

based on winnings this week I have crossed the $17 grand bankroll total. This will allow me to up my base bet to $170(one unit). I always try to keep my base unit as 1% of my bank roll for those who are looking at this for the 1st time.

**** when shopping for lines, I have found that you get the best price on the dogs on the opening lines. Midnight is better than 6 am, which is better than noon, which is better than 6 pm***

MLB

pit/wash over 8.5(win) gorzelanny is in a groove right now, he grooves every pitch down the middle of the plate. In his last 3 he has 13.2 inn , 16 hits 8 bb whip 1.70. Bergmann who sold his soul to the devil in early may...lol.. has succumbed to playing for the injury ravaged, punchless nats. the only reason this isnt a 3 unit game is my concern will the nats get the 4 necessary to make this go over. Both bullpens are struggling and are in the bottom 1/2 of the league.
tex/kc over 10(even)(win) doesn't every game with tex in it end up over 10 lately? Actually it is 9 of 11 but the other 2 hit 9 runs. This is a play more on the bullpens than the starters. Both are completely overworked and the results show it. Bannister is soild both during the day and at home but unless he goes 7 or 8 too much pen will get tex to 6 or 7. Hurley is making his first major league start. His recent minor league #'s suggest that it was just his day to pitch and that is why he is here. He has a 5.30 era on the season in AAA and a whip near 1.5. Unfamiliarity breeds an under but once again if he only goes 5 or 6 that is 3 inn too many for the texas pen to pitch.
cubs/atl under 9.5(3 units)(win) ok I realize big z sucked last game but maybe that should have made this line 7.5 or 8...but 9.5???? Thank you. These 2 aces have nice #'s vs the other teams.
San fran(+105)(win) I don't think I need to go into deep analysis here. Reynolds is a struggling rookie and Sanchez has given quality start after quality start. Giants have been playing well and I don't see the sweep from the rocks here
orioles(+155)(loss) orioles have played boston tough this year. They show no fear going up against boston . They have attacked both on offense and on the mound. In this matchup we get the o's ace guthrie. With any run support he would have 7 or 8 wins right now. He has pitched very well vs sox in past. Consider these #'s cora 1-12(.083), drew 2-10(.200), lowell 2-13(.154), lugo 1-10(.100), tek 2-9(.222), youk 3-16(.188). Now these #'s vs lester: Huff 4-11(.364), jones 5-7(.714), markakis 5-13(.385), payton 4-13(.325), roberts 4-12(.333). Add in the fact that o's pen is better than sox pen and what you come up with is the following...1.ace(o's) vs 3rd or 4th starter,2. majority of sox batters struggle vs guthrie , while majority of o's hitters hit well vs lester , 3. bullpen is better for the o's and 4. You want to give me +155? i'll take my chances
min/cle over 9.5(+105)(3 units)(win)...lay 510/535.50 I hate to agree with the succinct analysis of the I see...in fact...in addition...this says it all crew(read the service plays and if you don't laugh at how many use this tactic I will be surprised) but I have to go with them on this one. Livan is batting practice right now in fact, his last 6 starts he has given up 62 hits. I see livan giving up many hits today.So should everyone else. These 2 bullpens are flat out bad right now , with both pens having an era over 7 last week. ump will help as 7 of his 11 games have gone over this year.





NBA
celts +7.5(3 units)(win) the celts have controlled the pace throught this series and as the c's get healthier this is bad for the lakers. They need their space created by the fast break to create solid 3 opportunities. Kobe will get his everyone knows that. I see the celtics, especially if rondo's ankle is better than it was last game, being more aggressive offensively , driving to the hole more and asserting themselves down low where their real advantage is.
celts ML(+290)lay 170 to make 493....WWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
cs/la under 191.5(3 units)(win) these games are in the c's pace and if the lakers couldn't force their pace in game 3 what makes anyone think they will do so in game 4? I see this being another 92-89 game.
parlay
san diego(w/peavy) + c's/la u 191.5(win) 170/ 377.65


all games are $187 to make $170(1 unit) unless noted

I will be testing out my own tweak on the MLB dog system, hoping for some nice return with little downside. We will see how it goes.

MLB dog system(wins are based on series win not actual games)
272-58 $ 17,412 thur 1-1 $ (16440) divide series losses equally into upcoming series.

MLB dog system games look like this:All plays for series (320-334) starting on mon & tue will have base bets of $3000. $2,995(chase 317) + $5(base bet) = $3.000 . Good luck to all.

MLB system plays ...look to clear out these games and start a new series.
series 329..game 3...atl(+125) $12000/$15000(loss). 2-1 atl...9th inn..2 outs 2 strikes....damn!!
series 332..game 3...sf(+110) $12600/$13860(win)

good luck and take care,

lillefty

Last edited by lillefty; 06-13-08 at 01:27 AM. Reason: add win/loss early games
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