Alright guys, here it is... this is big money here. Chase up to 6 games. Here is how we play according to this chart (it has been developed through 5 years of research)
The W/L O/U is how we play on that team when they hit the road trip. The only two teams we play to win ON THE ROAD, are Atlanta and the Yankees, everyone we play WITH the home team(s).
The O/U is, again, how we would play the team going on the road. Some teams are destined it seems to cover Overs wayyy more than Unders.
First few series begin on the 31st.
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`08 MLB Road System (110-1) +83 units....(2 Pending) (loss @ 75-0)
** After loss, been playing "to win" 2 units until caught up.**
joe you said chase up to 5 games on the road trip of 6 or more. So we'll chase the 1st game and if we lost after 5 games we'll give up?
Or we'll have to wait for the last 5 games before start the chase.
so the teams with no W/L or O/U we don't play them on those? just on what is posted? And also obviously the teams not posted (seeing only 25) do not fit the system?
Exactly..... and Tiger.... Sorry, 5 games is wrong, we chase all 6 (thanks for bringing that to my attention).. We chase the entire series, or the first 6 games of the series. Like in the NBA system, the first game or two will knock out the majority of the series. Example... in 2007.. 4 series went into game 6, 3 lost (obviously)....in 2006 3 series went into 6 games and only 2 lost.
I'm still putting time into this spreadsheet... I'll post it when I'm done.
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`08 MLB Road System (110-1) +83 units....(2 Pending) (loss @ 75-0)
** After loss, been playing "to win" 2 units until caught up.**
Last edited by JoeMoney1440 : 03-12-08 at 11:40 PM.
one more thing i would like to bring to the attention of others is a chase for sf giants that has been $$$$$ since the new park opened. i live in the bay area so the sf giants are my team. despite barry bonds, pac bell stadium at night is very hard to score runs because of the wind. every home stand i always wait till an over hits. once an over hits i chase the under. Usually hits right after or next game. oh, and exclude day games from this chase because day games at this park allows a lot of hits. trust me on this!
you could always start off smaller...$50 or $25 just to get a bankroll going. That's what I'll usually do when I'm staring off. Although you want to kick your self when you think back "what if" but NEVER do that and never be gready. Start slow then when you've got the $$$$ bump it up.
The ave. home team is -120 or so. That's betting 1.2 units to win 1 unit. If a road team like the Astros wins 5 in a row (and we keep losing our bets), the 6th game will look like this:
Bet 60.66 units to win 50.55 units.
Your unit size better be tiny. That's one bet out of perhaps a dozen that you may be trying to get down on.
Jmoney - This looks like a winner. Thanks for doing the research. Have a couple questions though.
How are you getting your unit winning totals for each year? I did the math and I'm coming up with a different number. For example using 2006 W/Ls and O/U records provided and 1 unit = $10
no problem guys... and JoJo.. the reason your math comes out wrong is because... a chase can't ever be set on -120 odds... I mean at times last year we were going with like -165,. They add up fast.
As for a unit size... I would reccommend starting very very small... perhaps... ½% or your bankroll. Whatever size bankroll you have would determine what you actually bet. I went with 1% last year.... and sweating my balls off a few times. ($5,000) @ 1% = $50... and losing in the 6th game was sickening. 1 series set me back over $2000 :'(.... however, it all comes out in the wash. I would use ½ to 1% of your total BR. You will need them.
I also use a low amount, because I sorta eye-ball another system my buddy has stumbled across.. so I always leave room open for that one too
Good luck guys....
9 plays on the 31st!!!
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`08 MLB Road System (110-1) +83 units....(2 Pending) (loss @ 75-0)
** After loss, been playing "to win" 2 units until caught up.**
hey joe that was another question i had
how many plays are there going to be on a regular day.
i realize it depend on the series but knowing if there are going to be an average of 5-7 games as opposed to 9-10 games makes a difference
This is going to be crazy to keep up with esp. with my work blocking gaming sites! I'm going to make an executive decision and join in on your system Joe. Best of luck!
Joe - is there any way to see how profitable this system is when betting the spread instead of the ML? Like Bud - I am very nervous with the ML since one loss can be ugly and two losses can be devestating. Thanks
As an example (for those not following the hockey thread), I lost on a game 2 yesterday and a game 3 yesterday to the tune of 24 units. I just don't think a chase on the sides for up to 6 games is doable. I know it wouldn't happen much, but it will happen enough.
Linear Mode
