Baseball, like hockey, is a completely different animal to wager on. The moneyline scares many away, because many gambler's understand a pointspread, but many have a difficult time gauging value from the moneyline. There is a lot to consider, but I wanted to key in on one area, that plays beyond the team, or pitching strength, but involves what I consider "emotional" fators. It wil be the topic for today's research. Did you ever wonder what happens to a team after losing a game by a single run? Do they end up spending their aces in the bullpen? Do they emotionally bring less energy into their next game, after a tough loss? Do they do the opposite, and bear down harder, to avenge the tough loss? There are arguements, as you see relating to value on each side, depending on which emotion, you believe prevails,but the true test, is found going back in and seeing which, if any fits the situation. The history over the past 3 yers shows, that these teams that lose by 1 run, come back fighting hard the next night, and have shown a winning percentage in each of the last 3 years, if they are a dog in their very next game. This all sounds great, but the story as of 5/14 this season, has shown a differnt trend. Since the season began, teams that have lost the day before by a single run, are just 49-65 when playing as a dog or 43%. This translates to -4.93 units to date. So is this the beginning of a new trend, or is it a bad stat to a good system that by season's end, will perform in + units, as it has for the past seasons? The jury is still out, but I will continue to moitor, and update this trend, to see if it catches fire.