Aftermath Sports (August edition)

A.S.W.A. · #1 (**permalink**) 08-04-08, 02:48 PM

Last day of the month

Since the All-Star Break: + $2790

Yesterday's results: 4-3, +305
Innings came through for a 3-1 total day along with a very big Seattle win.
A Marlins Grand Slam in the 9th would've made for an even bigger night but it didn't happen.
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AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
------------------------------
(2008) AUGUST CURRENTLY: - $810
Since Mid-March 2008: +$11,095

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

The "1st Frame" Inning System(Will there be a run scored in the first inning?)
2* SEA/CLE (YES) If a win isn't obtained by 5 minutes before next play starts add it.
2* BOS/CHW (YES)

2* NYM/FLA OVER 9.5 (Total System)
2* LA DODGERS +155
3* PHILLY +175
2* MIN/OAK UNDER 8
2* ST LOUIS -120

2* TEXAS +185
3* BAL +220
5* PIT +220

A.S.W.A. · #2 (**permalink**) 08-04-08, 03:57 PM

TODAY'S PLAYS:

1.5* CLEVELAND/TAMPA UNDER 7.5
Bot of these starters should be award canidates somewhere down the line if not this year maybe next year. Garza has been a home workhorse allowing just 15 earned in 64+ innings of work. What is even more impressive is Cliff Lee who has a 10-2 overall record with only 42 earned runs on his record for the season. On the road he is 8-2, 2.69 which is damn near impressive away from home. Look for this game to reach no higher than 3-2. Both starters should only allow 2 tops over 6+ innings each. Look for a late winning run off one of the bullpens. Don't think either starter will earn a decision in this one.

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
4* HOU/CHC (YES -125 BODOG)
2* OAK/TOR (NO -160 DIAMOND or THE GREEK)
2* WSH/COL (YES -115 BODOG)

The "DOG" System
All Dog System plays are action regardless of starter.
This 5-pack of high juice is all dogs starting from around 6:07 est and ending in the wee hours of the morning with a couple late plays. I'll start with the A's first and go down the line. Every single one of these dogs pose value just by the price they are all getting alone. It is never wise to play favorites just because it is a mis-match on paper. For there to be 5 of these in one day simply states to bettors that they will be sucked dry tonight. If all 5 of these plays lose or 4 of 5 lose I may have to retire this system. It has never shown this little profit this late in a season and tonight is the biggest test of them all. One would not be content with playing just one heavy fave, so in turn a second wager is placed. At 1-1 the books will earn on you. So if dogs go 1-1 then I win quietly. So again I'll start with the first game on the card:
1* Oakland +185 over Toronto
Halladay is definitly deserving of this price as he has dominated recently. But lets dive deeper. Gallagher has the talent to make it. Pitching in his new uni he only allowed 2 runs against the Yanks. He already faced the Jays when with the Cubs allowing 3. Halladay will allow at least 2-3 in this game. I personally liked Smith better in this one but the A's have a shot at this price. As did the Pirates yesterday but they failed. This one should finish a 4-3 game or 4-2. A's need to start winning as they have dropped 6 straight now. They can hit the Jays so we'll see what happens.
1* Houston +185 over Chicago
Yes it is Dempster at home bringing a 10-1, 2.72 era into this one against Moehler. If you look at Dempster's stats from years ago, he is definitly having a career year as a starter. Going from allowing 5-7 runs vs. each team to only allowing 2 per start is an improvement. However this game should be closer than one would think. Brian Moehler is not that bad, this line has dropped a bit from an early opening line, and the total is set at 10 runs which leads me to believe this game could get out of hand. Moehler is allowing 1 run every 2 innings on average while Dempster is allowing 1 every 3 innings at home. Once the starters exit we should see a 4-2 or 4-3 type game, leaving it to the bullpens. Houston is on a hot streak right now and the Cubs are coming off a comfy home series win against lowly Pittsburgh who cant win in Wrigley of late. Think this one stays under the total and should be a one run game either way.
1* Washington +200 over Colorado
The last time Redding faced this team they were hot and on the verge of going to the World Series. Colorado isn't the hot team this time around. The Nats exploded by Cincy after a hefty losing streak and look to get another win under the belt tonight. Personally, I think the Nats match-up well and should be in this one. Redding hasn't been awful on the road this year and in his last 2 of 3 road starts has allowed just one run. Cook is similar at home, as far as era is concerned but of late, at home he hasn't been special. Plus this is a guy and a team that should never be laying anywhere near 200 a pop this season. Cook, who in his last 5 home starts has allowed 19 earned runs and hasn't gone less than 7 innings in those 5 starts. Personally I think it comes to bullpens here in a 5-4 or 6-4 type game. Bettors are thinking that the Nats will flounder after a nice home series win against the Reds. Wouldn't put my money against them either.
1* Pittsburgh +255 over Arizona
This is the one that everyone says, "Are you crazy? No way it will happen." Maybe not tonight but it will in the future and has in the past. You won't get a win everytime with these mismatches but surely 4 of 10 you'd be a rich man over the long haul. Danny Haren is a machine at home going 8-2 with a 2.20 averaging 2 runs earned over 7 and 1/3 innings. Herrera has pretty much been a 5th wheel for this rotation but surprisingly has a 6 inning shutout performance against San Diego and his team has won the 3 of 4 games he has started. The loss was on the road but at this price maybe he keeps this Pirates team in the game to squeak out a win. I mean Arizona should win this easy but they are a .500 club basically so I'll take my chances here.
1* Baltimore +185 over LA Angels
The games Saunders has pitched in at home against Baltimore saw 11 runs total each time. Sarfate got his one start at NY out of his system and although the O's got whipped 13-3 he did only allow 3 earned in 4 innings. Not great but not bad either. This one will be a high scoring affair so if it does get out of hand look for a 6-5 type game or more runs to be put up. The O's bats have been doing well so they should be able to hang with LA. Over juiced game because the Angels are the hottest team currently in the majors. They are coming off a loss as well and a long flight back to LA.

A.S.W.A. · #3 (**permalink**) 08-05-08, 10:34 AM

YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: 6-3, +1085
You never can ask for a better start to the calendar month than what finished up to be a brilliant day in baseball. No doubt in my mind that this will be a month for the record books so get your calculators out. The Pirates dog system play unquestionably could've annihlilated books all over as they got out to a 3-0 early lead on Haren and led 4-3 early on. The 6 run inning killed it though. Baltimore also had some late fight getting to the Angels pen and making the game nail-biting to say the least. All in all, the dog system goes 2-3 for profit as expected. The top total of the day also just nipped the under for a win and the inning system steamrolled for a 3-0 night for $800, a chunk of the daily earnings.
Now up an unprecidented $4640 since the all-star break. Undoubtedly there aren't many who can say this. I am confident this streak will blaze on through August, maybe not every night, but each week and to finish the month without question.

A.S.W.A. · #4 (**permalink**) 08-05-08, 02:45 PM

DOG SYSTEM:

2* Houston +230 over Chicago
After what some call a lucky break winning with Houston in an unfinished game last night I say more power to the Stros as they have now won 4 in a row. Look to make it 5 today as Wandy Rod takes the mound in hopes of putting together a performance like the last time against these Cubbies. He allowed 0 earned in that game. Harden on the other hand has never faced the Houston club so to lay this much is a little scary. Yes, Harden has put together an even more impressive run in his new stadium than previously but still, this guy is well over-due to get rocked and the hot Astros could very well be that team today to do it. For this team to get this much loot on the dollar I will certainly take my chances. Big name pitcher with no history against a hot ball-club is a no-no in my book.

WiseGuy1 · #5 (**permalink**) 08-05-08, 07:33 PM

Close one on the Astros ASWA,
I laid 3 bills on the Cubs, but had to sweat it out, the juicyjuice being astronomical. Keep up the current streak, posts are informative as ever.
Wise

A.S.W.A. · #6 (**permalink**) 08-06-08, 12:33 PM

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

3* DET/CHW UNDER 11
This is a 3* play this evening due in part to this play being a system total play as well. Both of these teams can score without a doubt but if you dive into these numbers in this game you can find greater things. Gavin Floyd has faced the Tigers at home 3 times over the last 2 seasons and this team is only averaging 3 runs per start. Floyd went 7.1 last time out and didn't allow a run earned. I think bettors are looking at games played in Detroit or more recently because, allthough this game could easily go over the posted total, history says otherwise. Robertson too has been impressive at Chicago. Only 3 and 4 runs were put up by the Sox in his last 2 road starts there. He has struggled more with this team at home and has been horrible on the road this season. I'll go with Floyd's 2.49 era at home over anything else here. He has dominated at home of late and this should continue. This one should wind up in the 7-9 run range.
1* MIL/CIN OVER 9
When a team has allowed 50+ runs in 5 starts with Bush on the mound you really wonder why this total went from 9.5 to 9 today. I sure do. Dave Bush has not pitched well at Cincy ever, and his bullpen has failed to back him in any of those 5 previous starts. Cincy has exploded for 15 runs against Bush and relief in 2006 and just last year 11 runs crossed in 2 of Bush's starts at Cincy. Bush only lasted 1 inning last September at Cincy and honestly I can't see these bats just dying all of a sudden against a guy with a near 7 era on the road this season. Volquez has simmered a bit from a dominant 1 earned run per start pitcher to roughly 3 or more of late. I personally think Cincy should cruise in this one but look for double digits to put up total easily. I have at least 14 coming across in this one.

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
2* FLA/PHI (YES -120 Bodog)
2* SD/NYM (YES even Bodog)
CONTINUATION SERIES (YES)
2* NYY/TEX (YES -140 Bodog)
only with a loss play both 2* WSH/COL (-130), and 2* BAL/LAA (-120)

2* DOG: Baltimore +195 over LA Angels
1* DOG: Pittsburgh +260 over Arizona

A.S.W.A. · #7 (**permalink**) 08-06-08, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiseGuy1

Close one on the Astros ASWA,
I laid 3 bills on the Cubs, but had to sweat it out, the juicyjuice being astronomical. Keep up the current streak, posts are informative as ever.
Wise

Yeah that is sweating it. Up 6-1 to trail after the midway point??? ugh! was a tough loss for me.
Have a couple early plays that will be up shortly for Wednesday the 6th.

A.S.W.A. · #8 (**permalink**) 08-06-08, 01:05 PM

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
CONTINUATION SERIES (YES) : 2* MIL/CIN (YES -120 Bodog)
If a loss wait for added plays.

2* DOG: Cleveland +200 over Tampa Bay
Look for Sowers to surprise everyone today by keeping this Indians club in this game. He has been awful on the road this season but hasn't been bad against the Rays in his career. Kazmir is valued high because of his home dominance plus he is pitching for one of the premier teams in the league in 2008. I've never seen TB ever laying -200 or more this many times. Kaz has been a heavy fave in the past and hasn't had much success. Cleveland shouldn't get more than 2 or 3 off Kaz and likewise with Tampa against Sowers. Look for a 4-3 type game here and at this value I like the Indians as a 2* play for an early dog system play.

A.S.W.A. · #9 (**permalink**) 08-06-08, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A.S.W.A.

For August 4th thru August 31st, 4 weeks.

YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: 2-5-1, -480
Not really what I was looking for after a brilliant start to the week. The Tigers/Sox game looked good after the first few innings but runs crossed at an alarming rate at the midpoint and shattered any chance of hitting that play. The Reds on the other hand made Bush look like a super-hero last night as they couldn't put anything together. It was 2-1 in the first and the Reds left the bags loaded setting the tone for the evening. I'll accept a push in any situation like that. Inning System went 1-2 last night as both Florida and the Mets left runners on in the first without getting one to come in. Texas didn't however as they put 2 up with 2 outs in the first. The dog system looked as though it would start off hot yesterday but the Stros pen floundered as the Cubs took revenge from the previous called game. Harden never faced Houston and he pretty much got roughed up. Wandy Rod also got lit up early but settled down. Baltimore and the now likely new man in their rotation handeled LA to get us some of the dog loss back. Pittsburgh played well but fell short 3-1. Big day on the horizon and I start it off with a couple early games Wednesday! Good Luck!

------------------------------
AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
------------------------------
APRIL 2008: $5000+ earned all sports.
MAY 2008: $4970 earned all sports.
JUNE 2008: $445 earned all sports.
JULY 2008 : - $2160 (Losing effort)
AUGUST 2008: $ 555

Since the All-Star Break: + $4160

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

2* TOTAL SYSTEM PLAY: DET/CHW UNDER 9.5
Playing to win two of three games. Must win situation tonight to keep system play alive.

1.5* MIN/SEA OVER 8.5
This one should clear 10 runs tonight as both Blackburn and Washburn are quality starters but dive into the numbers to get a better look. In both of Washburn's starts last year at home Minny put up 6 runs in each contest. Jarrod is also coming off a bad outing against Baltimore and has a 2-5 record at home this season with a 5.62 era. Minny should be able to put up their half of the 8.5 easy in this one at least ending with 5-7 runs. Blackburn has been impressive on the road lately but still holds a 4.48 for the season on the road. Even if this guy pitches decent allowing 2-3 over 6, if you look at his bullpen backing in those last 4 quality starts it will have you questioning the integrity of an under wager tonight. Not counting the Yankee game even, where Minny allowed a total of 12, 7 runs allowed by the bullpen in the other 3 road starts. Blackburn only had allowed 1 or 2 runs when he exited, so figure the rest into the equation. Both these teams will score when they face each other. Both teams should at least put up 5 IMO. Look for at least 11 to cross all-together.

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
CONTINUATION SERIES (YES) : 2* MIL/CIN (YES -120 Bodog)

2* DET/CHW (NO -110 Greek)
2* FLA/PHI (YES -145 Bodog)
2* SD/NYM (YES -105 Greek)

2* DOG: Cleveland +200 over Tampa Bay
Look for Sowers to surprise everyone today by keeping this Indians club in this game. He has been awful on the road this season but hasn't been bad against the Rays in his career. Kazmir is valued high because of his home dominance plus he is pitching for one of the premier teams in the league in 2008. I've never seen TB ever laying -200 or more this many times. Kaz has been a heavy fave in the past and hasn't had much success. Cleveland shouldn't get more than 2 or 3 off Kaz and likewise with Tampa against Sowers. Look for a 4-3 type game here and at this value I like the Indians as a 2* play for an early dog system play.
1* Baltimore +200 over LA Angels
Garret Olson faces Ervin Santana today in another afternoon game. Dog plays are always action regardless of starter because it goes both ways. We could get lucky in some cases and face a lesser valued pitcher or get unlucky as well. Needless to say at a high comeback price its worth it everytime to play the dogs. Olson looks to keep the O's winning alive as they won last night against Garland and look to get one early here. The Angels will be laying more than 200 alot more often now as everyone is betting them. The Dog System in general will pick up these days as well as we have seen an increasing amount of plays in the last few days. Santana has pretty much been able to go deep in games against Baltimore besides the last outing which was on the road. Look for him to continue this trend going 6-7 today. If Baltimore gets to him early he may see limited action. I strongly feel Olson will keep the O's in this one regardless in either a one or two run ballgame. Look for 8 or 9 to be scored in this one.
1* Pittsburgh +205 over Arizona
Karstens looks to continue his newly found dominance. In his last road start at Chicago he went 6 innings allowing 5 hits and no runs. He was a heavy underdog in that one against Jason Marquis. Like Marquis, Randy Johnson doesn't see many lines at -200+ these days. He will for the first time this year, this afternoon as he looks to get hot again at home. Somehow I fail to see why this guy is laying this much. Yes, Pittsburgh is bad on the road, coming off a loss, and Karstens' sophomore outing with his new team but Johnson? The man with a 5.62 era at home? The man who has allowed 7 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 home starts? A man who is on a slightly better than .500 club? I will certainly take my chances here, especially when these teams have traded wins 2 for 2 in all 6 meetings this year. Ari won 2, then Pit took the next 2, and Ari with 2 more. arstens will not shut out Arizona in this outing but he will keep this team in the game. Johnson does have a good resume at home against the Pirates in the past but how can you count 7-8 years ago as a solid helpful statistic? The only thing thats being looked at is Johnson's 20+ inning scoreless streak. That will end today, trust me. Pirates in a close one.
1* Washington +190 over Colorado
Here is another prime example. Do the oddsmakers really think Colorado will have another second half to remember? Francis hasn't been this bad in I don't know how long. At this price, this is the best play of the day of any dogs. Francis should not be laying this no matter what. Is it because he was somewhat decent allowing only 4 earned runs in his last 2 home starts? He has a 5+ era regardless facing a team that has put up some runs on him and his bullpen pals in the past. Facing them twice in the last two seasons, once in '07, and once in '06, he allowed 8 runs in those combined starts. The bullpen also allowed 3 runs in each game. Nats should be able to put up 5-7 tonight and I feel that is enough for Odalis Perez who is averaging roughly 4 earned per start at Colorado over the last several years. This one should go over the posted total. Nats by 2.
1* San Diego +185 over NY Mets
Yet another example of a pitcher who hasn't established anything in 2008 other than a 4+ era at home. Pedro always gives his team a chance to win games but will they back him when they have to face Baek who has been red-hot for the SD pitching staff. I see this one ending up somewhere in the 4-3 type game. Baek has pretty much dominated at home and on the road and is having a good year. Pedro does have a little history behind facing SD but the way he has pitched this season I wouldn't be surprised if the Pads put up a few on him. Mets have been slumping recently as has most of the NL east. Look for San Diego to get on the board early and if these dead bats can actually put up a few runs tonight that makes the chances of winning this one even better.

Plays for August 6th!

A.S.W.A. · #10 (**permalink**) 08-07-08, 12:21 AM

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

2* TOTAL SYSTEM PLAY: DET/CHW UNDER 10.5 (series 1-1)
Playing to win two of three games. Final of the best of 3.

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
1 system play released mid afternoon

5* DOG: San Diego +220 over NY Mets
This is one of the highest ranked dog system plays if not the highest of 2008. The Mets are 3-8 in Santana's last 11 starts. Johan keeps the Mets in the games but its the batting and bullpen that is in question. Josh Banks has done fairly well this season and already holds a victory against the Mets earlier this season. Santana got outdueled in his start against the Pads this season losing a 2-1 game.
In 2005, Santana allowed 4 runs in his only home start against SD. Don't see them getting that many off him tomorrow but maybe off the bullpen. I think we will witness a 2-2 or 3-2 game late but again in the inning or 2 that the Mets have the relief out there anything is possible. Look for SD to spoil a good outing by Johan. SD edges NY 4-3.

1* Florida +200 over Philly
Hamels isn't a stranger to this type of line. He allowed 7 earned in his last home start vs. the Fish. He has looked beatable in recent starts against Florida, Atlanta and most recently St. Louis. Chris Volstad on the other hand has been profitable as a dog. His last road start was actually against the Cubs in which he and the Marlins were heavy dogs. Volstad has pitched better on the road than home and has a better road era than Hamels does at home. These division games can go either way. I would predict a 6-4 outcome in this one. This reminds me of 2 Jeff Karstens starts as heavy dogs that proved to be winners. Worth the shot here.

A.S.W.A. · #11 (**permalink**) 08-07-08, 03:14 PM

Added afternoon play:

1* Washington + 185 over Colorado (Game 1)
The first of two after the ppd game last night. Oddsmakers are still all with Colorado making short work of the Nats today. I like this game alot more than the game 2 match-up. Colorado is not going to pull off the same kind of run they ended last season with. Francis again as I've previously said should not be laying this much. Still think the Nats will at least put up 5 or more today. Bergmann will allow some runs today but I think the Nats will outscore this mediocre team to win this one.

A.S.W.A. · #12 (**permalink**) 08-07-08, 06:06 PM

Here is the entire card for me tonight.
Added from earlier posts were the Nats in game 2, 2 inning plays and an added total. The Sox/Tigers was bumped from a 2* to a 3* play tonight as well. Good Luck!!

***PLEASE NOTE THE ADDED * TO THE DET/CHW TOTAL. IT IS A SYSTEM AND BONUS PLAY!!!

Yesterday's results: 7-3, +820
Big inning wins yesterday along with a couple of key dog system wins carries a 70% evening on 10 plays. Profit at $820 and now close to $5000 since the all-star break. Looking to break that $5000 mark after today's action.

------------------------------
AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
------------------------------
APRIL 2008: $5000+ earned all sports.
MAY 2008: $4970 earned all sports.
JUNE 2008: $445 earned all sports.
JULY 2008 : - $2160 (Losing effort)
AUGUST 2008: $ 1375

Since the All-Star Break: + $4980

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

3* TOTAL SYSTEM PLAY: DET/CHW UNDER 10.5 (series 1-1)
Looking for a total system decider tonight and also this is my 2nd ranked total play for today. Both Miner and Vasquez should play an under in this one. Miner has looked pretty good in his last few starts and Vasquez has held Detroit down at home in his last 3 home starts. Look for the Tigers losing to continue as the Sox should win this game. Should be somewhere in the 8-9 run range tonight.

1* Tampa Bay/Seattle UNDER 8
Both Andy Sonnanstine and Felix Hernandez are quality starters. If you look at their numbers you get a feeling this one would not come close to an 8 run posted total. Sonnanstine comes in at 11-6 on the season and last season held Seattle to 1 run. He has developed into a better pitcher this season as he and Edwin Jackson really grew up and learned alot over the last year. Joining Shields and Kaz, this team has the rotation to win it all. I think they will stay in this one as Hernandez has gone 7.2 innings in all 3 of his home starts against Tampa. He has allowed 1 earned in each of those 3 starts. Look for a 3-2 type ballgame here clearing the total easily.

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
2* NYY/TEX (YES -140)
2* DET/CHW (YES -125)

5* DOG: San Diego +220 over NY Mets
This is one of the highest ranked dog system plays if not the highest of 2008. The Mets are 3-8 in Santana's last 11 starts. Johan keeps the Mets in the games but its the batting and bullpen that is in question. Josh Banks has done fairly well this season and already holds a victory against the Mets earlier this season. Santana got outdueled in his start against the Pads this season losing a 2-1 game.
In 2005, Santana allowed 4 runs in his only home start against SD. Don't see them getting that many off him tomorrow but maybe off the bullpen. I think we will witness a 2-2 or 3-2 game late but again in the inning or 2 that the Mets have the relief out there anything is possible. Look for SD to spoil a good outing by Johan. SD edges NY 4-3.

1* Florida +200 over Philly
Hamels isn't a stranger to this type of line. He allowed 7 earned in his last home start vs. the Fish. He has looked beatable in recent starts against Florida, Atlanta and most recently St. Louis. Chris Volstad on the other hand has been profitable as a dog. His last road start was actually against the Cubs in which he and the Marlins were heavy dogs. Volstad has pitched better on the road than home and has a better road era than Hamels does at home. These division games can go either way. I would predict a 6-4 outcome in this one. This reminds me of 2 Jeff Karstens starts as heavy dogs that proved to be winners. Worth the shot here.

1* Washington +185 over Colorado (Game 1)
The first of two after the ppd game last night. Oddsmakers are still all with Colorado making short work of the Nats today. I like this game alot more than the game 2 match-up. Colorado is not going to pull off the same kind of run they ended last season with. Francis again as I've previously said should not be laying this much. Still think the Nats will at least put up 5 or more today. Bergmann will allow some runs today but I think the Nats will outscore this mediocre team to win this one.

1* Washington +200 over Colorado (Game 2)
Perez as stated yesterday will probably allow a few in this one. Jiminez has faced Washington at home once and only allowed 1 earned in that one. It looks as though the Nats would be out of this one early and not get back in it but again a sub-par team laying -230 and more at some books I will take my chances. This system has been dominant for the last 5 years I have been doing this. I don't see anything to say otherwise. The more dog plays there are the more wins that will occur. Now is that time of the season. This one will be closer than everyone thinks. Nats look like a game 1 winner so they look to win back to back today at Colorado. Look for Perez to pitch up to high standards tonight. Jiminez has been a great home starter but going back to repetition, this starter should not be laying this much. Francis faltered, Jiminez can falter as well. this line will most likely fall before gametime.

A.S.W.A. · #13 (**permalink**) 08-08-08, 06:20 PM

For August 4th thru August 31st, 4 weeks.

Yesterday's results: 5-3, -195
The biggest story of yesterday is how bad the Padres really are or is it how bad the Mets bullpen really is. The Pads wasted 2 opportunities to score in a botched stoppage of a double play to allow a run to score, and poor baserunning by Hairston. Pads should've led 5-3 after the homer and even with a homer by Wright a tie at least to that point. Didn't happen and a 5* loss on that game. The 3 other dog system plays win easily as the Nats took 2 straight in a double-header and Volstad continued his dominance on the road beating the Phills. Overall a 5-3 day in total but because of the 5* loss with SD and the 3* loss on a 3-run 9th inning for Detroit , it was a losing day. Still in a comfortable position heading into the weekend up $1180 this week and $4785 since the break.
------------------------------
AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
------------------------------
APRIL 2008: $5000+ earned all sports.
MAY 2008: $4970 earned all sports.
JUNE 2008: $445 earned all sports.
JULY 2008 : - $2160 (Losing effort)
AUGUST 2008: $ 1180

Since the All-Star Break: + $4785

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

2* TOTAL SYSTEM PLAY: CLE/TOR UNDER 10.5
This has just become a system play for the weekend. This line has also jumped a whole run and I feel that too many bettors are doubting the abilities of these two starters. Think the line was right the first time as I see about 9-10 scored in this one.

1* MIN/KC UNDER 9.5
I know this one has dropped but as always my totals rarely see a line move come into play so take it regardless. Even last night the Tigers line moved up a half and it still lost no matter how you look at it. Kevin Slowey has been pretty sharp for Minny and holds a 1 run 9 inning outing at Kansas City already this season. Look for him to continue the dominance tonight. Davies has looked at his best against this Minny club. He has only allowed 4 runs in his last 3 starts against them and should continue to perform up to standard as well. Look for this one to be in the 4-2 range tonight.

1.5* ATL/ARI UNDER 9
Personally I think Campillo and Davis have proven they can definitly pitch. Campillo has been hot of late not allowing a run in his last 2 outings although one of those outings was a very short stint. He has already faced Arizona this season allowing just 1 earned run in a 4 inning span. He has been able to go deeper in games since that meeting and I feel he will go fairly deep tonight. Look for the Braves to get a few off Davis in this one but it should be a close game regardless as the Braves lose more 1 run games than any other team. Atlanta also has been a great under team this season no matter who starts the game and who finishes it. This one, too, should finish up somewhere in the 5-6 run range as well. Game could go either way.

2* Washington +280 over Milwaukee
Don't overlook Balester's ability in this one. Sabathia is a monster on the hill, undoubtedly, but the Nats got back to back wins last night, and they are even heavier dogs tonight. Bettors are chancing that they are due to lose a road game after winning a series with Colorado. Nats look like they can be a little hot right now, just like the Astros are hot right now. Nats have won 6 of 7 and 3 of the last 4 road games. WOW! It can continue tonight as their starter has gone roughly 5 innings or a little more in his 3 road starts this season. Just enough to help out your bullpen. He has only allowed 9 runs in those combined starts. At Florida he allowed 1 and his last outing 3. I think Milwaukee won't be able to tee off on this guy. Sabathia has been the best of the best in years past and although he looks like he'll cruise in this one he is averaging 2 runs every 5 innings at home with his new team. the Nats should be able to get 2 or more tonight. C.C. is due to get roughed up and tonight could be the night he allows 4 or 5 earned. At this price its almost a dumb move to not play it. I'm even one upping it for $400 and going to add a play on the Nats -1.5 for a gut feeling unit. Trust me, you never bet a team that is playing a hot team and laying this much money. Bettors will find a way even if it is to take Milwaukee -2.5 runs to eliminate juice. Not saying this one is a lock but it would surely be a nice hit after the SD loss yesterday. Nats in another thriller, 5-3.

SPECIAL ADDED SIDES:
1* DET -1.5 +135 (A's on a downswing and the Tigers broke the 6 gm losing streak last night.)
1* WSH -1.5 +400 (Reverse run line at select books, and definitely worth every penny.)

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
2* PIT/PHI (YES -120 Bodog)
2* FLA/NYM (YES -110 Bodog)

Inning System Continuation Series:
2* TEX/BAL (YES -120) and CLE/TOR (YES -115 Bodog)
If both don't win add: 2* NYY/LAA (YES -115)
__________________

A.S.W.A. · #14 (**permalink**) 08-09-08, 12:11 PM

Yesterday's results: 4-7, -575
The bad day yesterday was the risks that were made with a couple of moneyline plays that didn't work out. Look for a big bounce-back over the next two days in baseball. May also throw down a couple of NFL plays for tonight. $400 lost last night was on the Detroit and Nationals plays. The remainder of the card wasn't solid but wasn't that bad. I figure when you have a solid start to a month like I am having it is easily a wise decision to throw a couple bills down on a longshot or two. I am a couple misses away from about $3000 more to my profit for this month. Looking back, it was well worth the opportunity. Eventually these will hit and the books will feel the Aftermath!
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AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
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APRIL 2008: $5000+ earned all sports.
MAY 2008: $4970 earned all sports.
JUNE 2008: $445 earned all sports.
JULY 2008 : - $2160 (Losing effort)
AUGUST 2008: $605

Since the All-Star Break: + $4210

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

2.5* HOU/CIN OVER 9.5
1* TEX/BAL OVER 10

5-pack Dog System Saturday

3* OAKLAND +180-----Detroit is floundering losing 7 of 8, also an added 2* side play(3* total)
2* ST. LOUIS +180
1* CLEVELAND +195
1* WASHINGTON +200
1* PITTSBURGH +205

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
4* PIT/PHI (YES)
4* TEX/BAL (YES)
__________________

A.S.W.A. · #15 (**permalink**) 08-10-08, 01:00 PM

Yesterday's results: 4-5, +470

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AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
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APRIL 2008: $5000+ earned all sports.
MAY 2008: $4970 earned all sports.
JUNE 2008: $445 earned all sports.
JULY 2008 : - $2160 (Losing effort)
AUGUST 2008: $1075

Since the All-Star Break: + $4680

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:

1* Toronto +135
Cliff Lee hasn't pitched all that well at Toronto in his career. Although he is having a good season, look for the blue birds to squeak this one out with Richmond on the mound who should keep them in it. This game will come down to the better bullpen, and Toronto has that advantage. Look for them to take the last game in this series.

1* DOG: Pittsburgh +200
Moyer against Davis as the Phills are struggling with runs and Moyer is a better road pitcher in '08. Davis hasn't started since 2005 and posts 2 earned in 5+ innings this season on the road. This one will be closer than everyone thinks as the Phills have only scored 4 runs in the first two in this series. Moyer will need run support in order to win this game. At the price it is worthy of a unit play.
2* DOG: Atlanta +200
The Braves are hot all of a sudden. They have taken the first three of this series. This normally would be a higher rated play but Arizona sends Webb to the mound to try and salvage one win of a four game home series. Webb struggled with Atlanta previously this season so we'll see what happens. I think Atlanta will try for one last playoff push before they fall furthur out of the wild-card race. Hampton will continue to gain confidence and we will see him have better outings than he has. Great to see a guy come back after that long of an absence. He'll finish the season strong hoping to get a contract elsewhere. The Braves will be in this game. Shouldn't be more than 9 runs in this game.

"1st Frame" Inning System (Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?)
4* TEX/BAL (YES)
2* PIT/PHI (YES)
2* BOS/CHW (YES)
2* SD/COL (YES)

A.S.W.A. · #16 (**permalink**) 08-12-08, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A.S.W.A.

August 4th thru August 31st, 4 weeks.

Since the All-Star Break: + $4830

Yesterday's results: 3-4, +150
Technically not what I was looking for but a winning weekend will hold me over for now. Not much going on for Monday. Had to come up with a special parlay. I have to at least play 3 plays today!

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AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
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(2008) AUGUST CURRENTLY: +$1225
APRIL: $5000+ earned, MAY +$4970, JUNE +$445, JULY -$2160.

Last Week: +$1225 in profit.
This Week: 0

TODAY'S SELECTIONS:
0.5* SPECIAL 5 TEAM PARLAY MONDAY

NYY $
LAD $
CLE -1.5
PIT +1.5
PHI/LA OVR 8

to win $1375

Here's the breakdown for this special parlay. I personally think the Yanks will bounce back after the terrible series with LA. They need a win tonight against a team they have scored many on and with Ponson looking good of late its a go on this play. Yanks also can hit Perkins as they have done along with putting up a plenty when Ponson starts. The LA Dodgers are the second selection as I feel Lowe will outdual Kendrick who has struggled at LA previously. Lowe should hold Philly to 2 runs tops and I think about how the Phills have failed to score a bunch of runs only putting up 10 in the series against Pittsburgh's lowly pitching staff and bullpen. Next in line is Cleveland, and I'm straight up run line here as I feel Carmona will only allow 1 or 2 and go deep. Can't say the same for the O's starter. Cleveland should easily win this by 2+. I also like the Pirates today as they are also a dog system play but more importantly here I will lay a little in this parlay taking a runline. Pedro seems to pitch in 1 or 2 run games against the Pirates and the Mets have won by a run against this team 3 of the last 7 home wins. Duke will keep them in this game and the Pirates do have a chance to win this outright don't forget. They have won 7 of the last 15 meetings so its a toss-up. Lastly on the list for this 5-teamer is the over 8, between Philly and LA. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 in LA. Kendrick looked awful in his last outing at LA allowing 5 earned. Look for this game to clear the 8 run mark tonight. This one should finish 5-3 at least or higher.

1* Pittsburgh +185
1* Washington +210
Both of these match-ups will be tighter than it actually looks like. Yesterdays dog plays weren't really tight games at all. Look for a couple of wins or 1-run games here. Pittsburgh should be in this one and have a great chance to beat Pedro who I feel isn't really into this team by the looks of his pitching this season. He may not even be 100%. Duke gives the Pirates a good chance to win in this game. As for the Nats and Brewers, look for Mock to pitch pretty well. Milwaukee looks as though they are getting hot in August but after Bush's last start I can see him having a let down non-quality start. I think this game has under potential making me like a tight game even more. Worth the money playing the Nats today.

Nothing else on tap today thusfar but if something big pops up I will certainly add it!
Lets put the books through the storm this week and continue the hot post-all-star run!!

Aug 11th picks

A.S.W.A. · #17 (**permalink**) 08-12-08, 04:20 PM

August 4th thru August 31st, 4 weeks.

Since the All-Star Break: + $4865

Yesterday's results: 1-2, +35
A missed 5-team parlay with only the Yankees failing. 4 out of 5 hit leaving me drooling. Dog system goes 1-1 for profit yesterday as well. A winning day, but not much. That makes 4 in a row.

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AFTERMATH MLB SYSTEMS
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