Here are the other 2 I have going tonight, June 17th...
$300 Mil/Cle Under 10.5
David Huff has impressed after starting his career in Cleveland on a sour note. His first two starts this year ended up showing him allowing 13 ERs in just less than 7 innings. Since then he has settled in and although he hasnt gone deep in any games but for 1, he has limited ERs allowed over his last 4 games. He has seemingly gotten better whith each outing and in his last he allowed 3 Ers in over 7 innings of work. Surprisingly, at a 10.5 total margin of runs, Huff has gone under that total 3 of his last 4 with finals of 3,7,12, and 10 runs. Suppan has been sharp also lately and has allowed 5 ERs in his last 4 road outings, 2 of them shutouts. After two massive run scoring nights look for a cease in the offense with a more defensive outlook in this one.
$300 Tampa Bay +105
The Rockies finally lost a game. The first time they allowed double digit runs since May 25 and the first game where they allowed more than 4 since their win streak. After getting into a comfort zone with winning Colorado may flip this around and start losing several. With that being said the starting pitching favors TB with Price who has really allowed 1 ER per start. The problem has been the bullpen, but TB handled Colorado nicely and should continue pitching better. Tampa is on a 6 game win streak and this will continue tonight. Cook allowed 6 ERs in his last outing vs. TB. This season after allowing 1 ER in 2 consecutive starts he allowed 4 ERs. Look for TB to rough him and keep to their winning ways.
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The Aftermath...
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As usual..looks like the correct record is gonna get lost in the shuffle because we're hurrying to get plays posted. Come on GF..your act is getting very old!
Current standing: -78.90 units Units remaining: 278.90
Can't say I am not ashamed of the current start to this little personal challenge. Even 10 unit plays are struggling going just 7-7 after a tremendous start. Look for these babies to get hot soon. Looking at a possible 13-3 run over the next 16 to solidify what I stated(near 70% winning clip). I have my work cut out for me, but just as there has been some real bad days, there can and will be good ones, real good ones when this turns around. I will certainly finish this out win or lose thru August 31st. In fact, I do have 75 days left which makes this an even greater accomplishment if it pulls through. I told everyone to watch for a few weeks first. Let's see how this finishes out!
6/18/09
$1000 Philly -160 $300 St. Louis -115 $300 Hou/Tex Under 10.5
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The Aftermath...
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10 unit plays are nausiating lately, but I have noticed that one of the angles has a horrible 1-5 track record with NL teams, which have been most of the plays. These plays went 18-6 to start the year for me, most which of course were before posting here. They will turn around and probably win at 75-80% the rest of the way. As the season progresses these systems get stronger and I still did not break a sweat yet. Still plenty of time. Standard 1-5 units on totals and 3, 5 or 10 units on sides. Nothing will change. Keeping the same formulas and formats and this will turn around fast. Guaranteed profitable night tonight!
6/19/09
$1000 Philly -145
The Phillies had their chances yesterday letting the bullpen let another slip away. It seems as though since Lidge has been out this team and their pen have thrown in the towel. Not a good relief showing over the last week or so. They will stay at home and face the woeful Orioles, who took 2 of 3 from the reeling Mets. Phillies should win this easily on paper against a weaker AL team. All will depend on how they play and close it out. Bastardo comes off his career worst since making his debut this year. His team needs him to be strong today and he will bounce back big time. The biggest question is will Rich Hill continue pitching the way he has on the road? Against the Phills, I see an early exit for Hill. Philly will win this one easily and forget any previous heart-breaking losses.
$1000 San Fran -105 $200 Tex/SF Under 8
Randy Johnson has to be feeling good. Coming off his 300th win, he has gotten new life as a starter and has been overly sharp of late. A look a Johnsons last 5 starts based on total run output for game: 3,9,6,4,7. This one should finish in the 5-7 run range. Feldman has not been a slouch going 5-1 this season for Texas, who comes off the loss last night. The Rangers were 7-1 in games Feldman started but have lost their last 2 he started. SF is 21-12 at home this season, and after coming off 3 straight home losses look for them to win tonight. Under is 7-0 last 7 gms for Texas vs. NL West. Feldman is 22-6 to the under in his last 28 gms. Rangers have gone 20-7-1 to the under facing a left handed starter.
$500 Washington -110
Washington is a terrible series game 1 play as I have stated many times, but they took 2 of 3 from the Yanks, and could be heading toward a little mini win streak. This team was just about at a .250 win pct. so look for them to start winning some more games, especially on home grounds. Toronto comes in, overvalued by the public, as dogs. A no-brainer, right? Wrong, as the Nats will get a good solid outing from Zim and take this game 1 tonight. Toronto just swept Philly and they go into Washington as dogs? Oddsmakers know something is up in this one. This will be one of those upsets as a fave games. Washington has had some bullpen improvement over the last several and Tallet for Toronto is also coming off an 8 ER outing, so look for him to be a bit shaky possibly.
$500 Detroit -110
The Brewers looked real good against Cleveland, last series but how bad was their pitching? I think Detroit will take full advantage of that as the Brewers were scoring alot but allowing almost as much over the last few games. Looper has not had success in Detroit over the last 2 seasons. In 2 starts there, he allowed 11 ERs. On the road this year, he has allowed 9 ERs in his last 2, and 15 ERs in his last 4 on road. Look for Detroit to take care of him early in this one. Armando Galarraga has more than struggled this year but is well overde to start pitching better. His last home start wasnt a bad one going 7 and allowing 3 ERs to Boston. Look for similar tonight and if he does pitch like that Detroit will easily get him enough run support as they have done all season.
$300 LA Dodgers +100
Soon the Dodgers will get Manny back but for now, they are doing fine without him. Billingsley has the better overall last 3 outings as far as stats go compared to Saunders and the Angels roughed up Billingsley this year. Overall these teams tend to play the low scoring game, and with that being said I feel this will favor the Dodgers. LA did win a 1-0 game with Billingsley on the hill last year. If he can bounce back this time around and pitch good enough, the Dodgers will put up enough in this one to win it. Saunders did lose a 6-0 final to LAD last season. Look for a 4-2 type game here with LA beating LAA.
$300 Cleveland +105(Early start)
Cleveland will look to steal one on the road this afternoon against the Cubs. Cliff Lee will face Rich Harden. Both starters have become household names for fans of these clubs but with a total set at 9 runs look for one of these starters to allow more than one would think. I capped this game at roughly 7 runs. Both teams have had bullpen issues as well recently so this one could get out of hand late. Lee will go deep in this one leaving few mistakes for the Cleveland pen to make. The Indians pen has not allowed a run in the last 4 games Lee started in. That is 7 innings. Lee has allowed just 5 ERs in his last 3 and 9 ERrs over his last 4 on road. Harden has not been good at home with a 5+ ERA in Wrigley. That should be the deciding factor in this one.
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The Aftermath...
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Looks like Cleveland is at it again. Boy do I wish I took first 5 innings, 5 run leads are not safe. 7-7 on Derrek Lee's solo shot and Kerry Wood's first ER in 11 games.
Looks like Cleveland is at it again. Boy do I wish I took first 5 innings, 5 run leads are not safe. 7-7 on Derrek Lee's solo shot and Kerry Wood's first ER in 11 games.
Same result saturday for Indians fans. Dodgers pulled the same stunt last night costing me 2 plays come from behind.
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The Aftermath...
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$300 LAD/LAA Under 9
It is Weaver vs. Weaver tonight. Interesting match-up. Last night the Angels came back and cost me and went over in the process which makes me a candidate for an under play tonight. These teams have surely had some low scoring affairs in the past. Jered owns the Dodgers, and without Manny in this line-up he should shine brighter. Five previous outings vs. LAD with only 5 ERs total. He has shut them out twice. Jeff will need to keep pace with his brother and even though he has struggled in the past I think there is the extra motivational factor tonight to get him a stellar outing. I would lean Angels as they are smoking hot and with Jered and his 1.01 home ERA who could blame one for choosing the home fave tonight. Under is the smarter play tonight in a competitive 4-2 final.
$300 Oak/SD Over 8
Tonight pits B. Anderson against W. Silva. Neither starter can be talked about in a good light. Opponents have put up 5 runs in each of Silvas starts this year. He allowed 5 ERs in his last to a banged up NYM offense. The overs are hitting more than usual at Petco of late. Anderson is the concern, allowing 6 ERs in 2 of his last 3 on road. He has gone less than 5 innings in 4 of his last 8 outings. 3 of the 4 were on the road, so the odds get better for us. He has gone over in 5 of his last 7 starts, in which opponents are putting up over 7 runs per game on average in those 7 outings. Brett could win this total alone. He has pitched bad in 3 of his last 4, and with bad road history this one will clear the 8 runs.
$100 Arz/Sea Under 9
Vargas has absolutely been on fire, especially at home. He will go tonight instead of Bedard. Vargas seems to bring out the best in his opposition as well. At home, Vargas has a 1.80 ERA. Much better than his 3.56 overall. His first home start as a Mariner saw a battle with Justin Masterson and a 3-2 final. Then he faced Randy Johnson in a 2-1 final. Lastly a 3-2 final vs. Baltimore, where Bergeson pitched a gem too. In fact, all 7 of Vargas starts have gone under. I like him at home, coming off a rough outing, trying to keep a spot in rotation as well. Buckner needs a good outing too, as he has allowed 14 ERs in his last 2 starts, both at home. He shows better numbers away as he only allowed 1 ER on the road this year.
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The Aftermath...
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After today's games I will have the stats updated. I was not surprised yesterday that the Angels scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to ruin the under and the M's and D-Backs scoring 7 runs from the 7th inning on or just Seattle putting 5 up in their final 2 at bats to cost me the under in that one. 1-2 for a 1.3 unit loss. Just the way the plays have been losing for these past couple weeks. Hopefully I can get on the right side of some upcoming games for a change. Hoping for a monster day today!
Happy Father's Day 6/21
$300 Detroit -120 $200 Mil/Det Under 8
Look for both Yovani Gallardo and Justin Verlander to go deep in this contest leaving the bullpens with short work this afternoon. That along with solid pitching will keep this one under the reduced total of now 8 runs. Gallardo has fluctuated with how deep he has gone in games on the road. His stats over the last 5 rd gms: 9 innings, 7,5,8, and 5. Look for him to bounceback and go the 7 innings today. If he keeps innings short and does not walk Tigers today that should happen. In his last 5 outings of over 5 innings, opponents have scored a total of 6 runs. Verlander is back to form. He is on a bounce back start but has only allowed 2 ERs in his last 4 home starts. The Brewers pen has been performing poorly so Detroit will steal this one late.
$300 Washington +115
Look at these Nationals. Winning the last 2 at Yanks and now the first 2 at home vs. Jays. They will sweep today. Baseball is all about streaks, and the are streaking in a positive way right now after one of the worst starts I have seen. The starters are taking the reigns, and the bullpen is finally pitching well. The Nats have had lengthy outings for their starting rotation with Detwiler last night and Lannan almost going the distance the other night. Actually no starter has gone less than 5 innings during this win streak or in their last 10 games for that matter. Martis comes off a strong outing in NY and should shine brighter today. This team has the confidence to pull it off and I see them getting it done.
$1000 Philly -160
The Phillies are not in a good place. They were swept by Toronto at home, now lose 2 straight to Baltimore. Things should not get worse as this team needs to turn it around now! Hamels needs to go the distance today or close to it to give his bullpen a much needed day of rest. He can very well do it. Phills have lost 7 of 8 and of those 7 losses, 5 of them were the bullpens doing. Philly has stayed close in games or have had leads and the pen has allowed the game to get blown open. The only way to stop this is to break the cycle for a day. Hamels needs a strong performance. I love the match-up as Guthrie has an 8+ ERA on the road this year and in his last 3 games as well. Phills should finally break the barrier today and win by 5+.
$300 San Fran +125
Millwood will face Zito today in the finale. Kevin Millwood is having a phenominal year, but lets not hold him in that high of a light away from home. His team is only 2-4 when he starts on the road compared to 6-2 with him starting at home. Zito would need an extremely solid outing today to get his team a win. I feel after his poor home outing last time out, he will come back stronger today. This one should be a tight game but these starters could allow several today so lean over. Giants have stolen 2 games in this series on late run scoring. See them doing it again.
$300 San Diego +110
I love the Pads as the home dogs today. Brett Anderson pitched better tan I thought yesterday. Alot of people are putting a big ride on Dallas Braden for today. The Pads are by no means a good ballclub this year but neither is Oakland. They have failed to get run support and even with a well pitched game from Braden they can still lose. Correia allowed 1 ER in his last start vs. Oakland last year but will face a different line-up. Braden has pitched well in 9 of his last 10 outings this year. Funny how the As managed to win just 4 of those 10 games, 3 of them by 2 runs or less. They also won 2 of those 4 wins by only 1. This one should stay tight either way. I like the home dog over an iffy As ballclub for the final play of Fathers Day!
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The Aftermath...
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The Standard: 200 units by 8/31/09
Current standing: -106.3 units
Units remaining: 306.3
6/22/09
$500 NY Mets +100
The Cardinals come into NY tonight maybe a little overvalued with Wellemeyer on the hill. The public like the Cards but Redding has been better than normal of late, and he will continue his run tonight. As should most games, this one will come down to the starting pitching early on in this one. The bullpens should not have much of an issue. Both teams should have an easy time with relief in this series. Wellemeyer has struggled against the Mets in his last 2 giving up 10 ERs in 10 innings and even with a banged up line-up. I feel the Mets should see at least 4 cross in this one. Well has an ERA iof 5+ on the road this year and 6+ in his last 3 starts. Whoever gets more off the starters will win tonight and the Mets should handle that task easily. $500 Atlanta -150
You can sure bet the Atlanta Braves are ready tonight after being fired up in yesterdays contest on the losing end in Boston. The Braves play this one game make-up with the Cubs. The Braves have gotten solid pitching in their series with the Cubs and this should continue for this one. Braves have struggled offensively as if that is new to this club. The pitching has been the best it has been in years, but the bats are not putting up runs. Cubs with Dempster tonight are just 3-11 as a team as underdogs, so what might look like a sure win may not be. Look for Javy Vasquez to get the job done tonight with Atlanta putting up more than usual. $500 Oakland -150
As far as teams to open as a fave, the As are probably the only team on the board deserving of the line. They have been playing better of late, and send Cahill to the mound to face off with J. Sanchez. Cahill has seen opponents put up 3-4 runs on average in gms started at home recently. He has allowed 5 ERs in his last 3. Sanchez is the weak spot in this game. Although he shut down Oakland last season in a 11-1 win, he did not face this line-up this year just yet. Sanchez comes in with a 5.43 ERA on the season. A disappointment in some peoples eyes. Even worse he is 0-6, 6.39 ERA on road in 2009. It does not get better as he has allowed a 7.71 ERA to form over his last 3 starts, 2 of those on the road. Cahill has the edge, bullpens shouldnt have an effect on the outcome. As by a few. $500 LA Angels -110 $100 Col/LAA Under 9
Cook will try to keep the Colorado win streak going again. The Rockies are putting together a run like a couple years ago at the end of the season. Palmer will go for the Angels and he is 6-0 on the year. He stands at 4-0 at home. I went against him in his last outing and today I am going with him and the Angels to win a low scoring contest. Both starters have an under 3.00 ERA over their last 3 ballgames. A combined 4-0 mark between them over those 3 starts each. The Angels are 8-1 when Palmer takes the hill and should get enough off Cook to seal this one up. The Rockies are 4-1 in Cooks starts when he pitches more than 6 innings. When he goes 6 or less it is a different story. I doubt he will last more than 6 innings tonight. Look for a 5-3 final.
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The Aftermath...
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Finally, a nice profitable night. Hopefully the remaining 70 days will be worth the wait for a nice chunk of change. A 7-play card tonight hopefully the start of positive things to come. What I am facing is roughly 300 units in the next 70 days, or 10 weeks. As much as the losing streak sucked out of me, I am not one of those fly by night posters that will just run when things are at their worst. I am sticking with this as it has succeeded for the last several years of doing it. Hopefully the winning will continue this season. I am here til the end, whether I accomplish the goal at hand or not. We have 70 days til truth or failure.
The Standard: 300 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-2, +8.4 units Units remaining: 300
6/23/09
$750 Texas +130
Harrison will go for Texas coming off being swept in SF. Max Scherzer will take the home hill for Zona after they too were swept. Both starters have gotten their teams wins of late as the Rangers are 5-2 in the last 7 Harrison has started, while the D-Backs are 6-2 in Scherzer starts. Both teams come in 2-6 in each of their last 8 games. The key here is the bullpens, and Texas will have the big edge in this one. Arizona pen is allowing 1 ER in less than 2 innings on the year. Scherzer has struggled at home with a near 6 ERA. Harrison had a great early May but fell apart in late May. He bounced back in his last start and should return to dominant form tonight against a team that has scored 4 or less runs in 15 of their last 21 games. Plenty of value with Texas as dogs.
$500 Cubs +115
Zambrano has a 1.66 ERA over his last 3 outings. He has allowed just 5 ERs in 28 innings over his last 4 outings. His last 2 on the road have shown nearly 15 innings with just 1 ER allowed. After being shut out last night things may look up for Cubbies tonight. Still questioning why the Rays let Jackson go? Stellar season with his new club. He is only 1-1 at home though, with a 3.00 ERA. Both starters will pitch well, no doubt but I see the Cubbies winning this one late, by a 5-3 margin. Lean under in this one.
$500 Milwaukee -110
Jeff Suppan of the Brewers will face Liriano for Minny. Liriano has good numbers against Milwaukee in 2 starts previously back in 2006. Things have changed since then including his struggles in 09. Liriano has given up 15 ERs in his last 4 road outings, including a 7 ER performance in Chicago. He is 2-8 overall, 1-4 on road with a 6.43 ERA. Suppan is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.50 ERA. Suppan allowed just 2 ERs in 7 innings at home vs. Min last season. The big question mark is the Brewers bullpen. If Suppan can give a strong outing like last season and limit the pen work to 2-3 innings, I see Milwaukee taking this one tonight. Like the starter match-up with the small home fave Brew Crew tonight. If they get enough off Liriano they will cruise in this one.
$500 Kansas City -130
Greinke has struggled lately. Russ Ortiz has looked sharp getting into the mix as Astros starter. When the Royals put up more than 5 runs with Greinke on the hill they are 4-0 this season. A showing of 5 or less puts them at 4-6 with Greinke starting. Run support is key tonight. Ortiz has started in 4 home games this year going 5 innings on average, allowing 2 ERs. Opponents have averaged 4-5 runs per game in his starts this year. The big factor here is the NL ballpark which will favor Greinke. Last season he allowed just 1 ERs in his last 14 innings during road interleague play. Having the pitcher spot bat is key for Greinke and will help him throughout the first 5 innings at least. Royals should get enough on the board to help his cause. KC by a few.
$500 San Diego +120 $200 SD/Sea Over 8.5
The Padres are a good value underdog today considering Olson has not pitched well at home for Seattle this year. Coming off a 4-3 win in San Diego, the Ms look to do more damage to this club at home. Opponents have scored 5 runs in both of Olsons starts at home. Olson has also allowed 5 ERs in 2 of his 5 starts for Seattle. Opponents also are averaging 5 runs per contest when Olson starts. Gaudin has been a mess this year, and I feel the public perception with this re-match is that the same results will take place. Seattle and the under will come in, but I disagree. With these two on the hill I think we will see double digits tonight in a high scoring affair. I see Gaudin pitching stronger than he has previously getting on the winning end tonight. Pads by a run.
$200 San Fran/Oakland Under 7
Lincecum and Mazzaro will do battle once again, this time in Oakland. Last meeting the Giants shut out Oakland at home 3-0. Mazzaro has been a strong move to the rotation for Oakland but should see a couple cross while he is out there tonight. I still feel he will go deep into this one as Oakland has been more pitcher friendly than San Fran has. Lincecum will try to continue his mastery against this line-up tonight. He has a 16 consectutive scoreless inning streak vs. Oakland still in tact. Giants won 1-0 last season in Oakland while the 3-0 Giants win occured just 10 days ago. I see at least 15 innings with these starters combined in a near 2-1 finish tonight. Under looks more than a little nice!
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The Aftermath...
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The write-ups yesterday certainly were dead on for the most part, still needing that one win to have a big night. The late games were well called, Milwaukee didn't get enough off Liriano which was stated so that was a bust, and the Cubs lost one late but with the Cubs up 4-3 that could've been almost correctly called. Harrison didn't show up and that was was over early on as the D-Backs put up 8 last night, the most they have scored in a while. Onto Wednesday!
The Standard: 300 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 4-3, -3 units Units remaining: 303
6/24/09
$200 LAD/ChW UNDER 9
Top total as Wolf and Floyd face off. I like both of these starters and what they have done recently. The bullpens have done a bang up job as well. Wolf was on a tear early this season and simmered of late allowing 11 ERs over 2 starts not long ago but has bounced back. He gave up 0 ERs in Texas of all places, and 1 ER vs. Oak. He still holds a 2.28 ERA on the road this season and has proven he can hang with MLBs top pitchers. Floyd has also been on a tear of his own of late allowing only 1 ER in each of his last 3 starts. He holds a 2.68 ERA at home and a 1.25 ERA in his last 3. After a shaky s tretch he has settled in with 6 straight quality starts in my opinion. Opponents have only put up 10 runs in his recent 5 home outings so look for this one to finish under the 9 with room to spare.
$200 San Fran +105
Gio Gonzalez will take the place for Outman who will miss tonight due to elbow issues. Randy Johnson will go for SF. RJ allowed just 2 ERs in his mtg with Oakland this season at home. On the road I see him having an even better outing. Gonzalez has been awful as a starter and reliever. He has a 7.27 ERA as reliever, and last season as starter allowed 29 ERs in 28 inngs. Opponents totaled 50 runs in 7 starts last year. He may pitch better at home as alot of those starts were based on the road, but the guy has yet to prove himself. He would need a solid 1 or 2 ER outing to beat Johnson tonight. I would expect a move favoring SF in this one but take them with the plus money as they should win based on pitching as they did last night.
$200 Seattle -135
Morrow has looked shaky in the past but this season looks better as far as runs allowed. He just needs to go deeper. Two of Morrows final 3 starts of 2008 were 6 ER performances but this season looks sharp only allowing 3 ERs in his 2 outings. Yes he has only pitched 7 innings, but his team will back him tonight facing Josh Geer. The run support was shaky for Morrow as Seattle only scored 3 runs in those starts and lost both games. I think with SD in town and a ton of run scoring last night will send this one into possible hibernation. I dont see many runs being scored by SD tonight. Geer may not be as good on the road against Seattle. He allowed 3 runs last mtg this year but opponents have scored 29 runs in his last 3 rd starts, and 42 runs over his last 5 on rd.
$100 Minnesota -115
Minnesota pitching has slowly caught fire of late and Blackburn is another example. He is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his last 3 ballgames. He has climbed the ladder in his last 3 outings going 7,8 and 9 innings respectively. Milwaukee struggled against the bullpen and struggled after the first couple innings last night. That will likely continue with Blackburn on the hill. Both Blackburn and his opposition Looper, have had one career start against the respective opponent. Neither looked sharp. Looper will continue to struggle as he has given up 11 ERs in his last 2 games. Not even 10 innings pitched over those 2. Minny should easily get 5-6 runs and that should be enough to win this one.
$100 Cincy/Tor OVER 8.5
This has risen at most books during the completion of this write-up. The move will not matter in the slightest. Opened at 8.5 runs and is on the rise. These teams easily hit an over last night and will do the same tonight. I would guarantee double digits in this one as Arroyo will face Richmond. Both starters have a 4+ ERA in each of their last 3 including on the road and home for the season respectively in this spot. Arroyo has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 on road. He also allowed 10 ERs in his meeting in Toronto last meeting, last year. He may have a stronger outing than last but will still be tagged for several. Richmond has also given up 5 ERs in 2 of his last 3 home outings. Opponents average almost 6 runs per game over his last 5 starts. Look for at least a dozen to cross in this game.
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The Aftermath...
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Write-ups are a little shorter than usual based off an early card today. All sides are action, totals listed starters.
The Standard: 300 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-2, +1.75 units
Units remaining: 301.25
6/25/09
$200 St.Louis -115 $100 StL/NYM Under 7
Johan Santana has not looked the same of late. Seems like he is fighting the losing battle with many of his teammates out of action. It is showing on the mound. The Mets cruised 11-0 last night so look for them to be dormant today in a revenge game for STL. Especially with Carpenter going. Opponents are averaging 2.5 runs per game when Carpenter starts, and that includes his 3 inning short outing this season. Carp has allowed 10 ERs in 9 starts this season. Johan will do battle today and bring his best but it wont be enough. Look for a 3-2 final. Mets were 22-12 in Santana starts LY. Only 7-11 in games where Santana was dog or was laying less than -170. TY Mets are 8-6 with him as starter, 4-4 as dogs or faves less than -170 and are 1-3 in his last 4 outings.
$200 Kansas City +105
This one likely should go over the total but more importantly KC should be able to get plenty of runs and win this one easy. Bannister faces Moehler. Moehler has a 9+ ERA at home this season and stands at 0-3 there. With some low outputs in the first 2 games look for KC to especially put up a bunch. Bannister has shown good signs lately and has looked sharp in his last 3 games. It is the pen that has failed him. That will not happen today.
$200 Cubs -110
Lilly has a 2.21 ERA over his last 3. Galarraga has struggled mightily since early in the year. Galarraga has only pitched 6 total innings in his last 2 outings. I played to victory in the last Galarraga outing, now I will fade him today. Cubbies will stop the road sweep in Detroit and get some revenge from the first 2 in this series.
$200 NYY/Atlanta UNDER 8.5
Pettitte and Lowe will face off in the rubber-match series game. NY won last night with 4 late inning rallies for runs. Braves gave that one away. These starters should keep runs off the board as long as things dont get sloppy like last night. Lowe has struggled of late, so I would lean Yanks here. Overall Pettitte has dominated road opponents of late and the Yanks would have only gotten a couple last night if the Braves didnt fork over about 5 runs. Neither team has been able to put up tons lately and that will continue tonight in a 4-2 ballgame.
$200 Texas/Arizona OVER 9.5
Texas comes off the win last night looking for run scoring. Tonight they may get it as they face Garland who has a 7.82 home ERA. He allowed 20 ERs against Texas last year in just 3 starts. This year opponents at home have put up nearly 10 runs per game in Garlands last 3 at home. Overall at home on the year, opponents have scored 52 runs in his 7 home outings. A weak home starter and a weak bullpen equals a ton of run scoring coming off a 2-1 game the night before.
$200 Cincy +120
How could one pass up Cueto as a dog tonight over Brett Cecil who has not looked that great. Cueto has allowed 5 ERs in his last 4 road outings. The bullpen remains to be seen to see how well they will perform tonight. But even in those games opponents averaged 4 runs per. I would certainly ride against the public here, as they weigh heavy on Cecil who has allowed 11 ERs in his last 2 outings. Cincy should put up 3-4 alone on Cecil and take this one by a run or two.
$300 Washington +110
Smoltz makes his Sox debut tonight in Washington, a place he has succeeded in the past. The thing is, he may be rusty, he may not be able to go too long tonight. There is value on the Nats as home dogs tonight with the public heavy on Boston. If Smoltz goes 3 innings with pain or stiffness(highly possible) the Nats could have an easy night. Oh, and Jordan Zimmermann has not been pitching that bad recently and this could set up a big outing for him. Home dog to take the final game in this series.
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The Aftermath...
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Three one run losses busted any chance of a profitable day with the late plays coming through for a save.
6/26/09
$500 Chisox +105 Washington +150 Houston +105 Tampa Bay -140
Analysis: The public loves the O's and the Tigers. I can personally see both teams losing today, and hopefully so as these are 2 of the 4 big ones tonight. O's were just swept, and the Nats have ultimately shown life in the 11th hour of their season. At a +150 there is no reason why this team can't win tonight. Their bullpen has done much better against two of the AL's best in the Yanks and Sox. Detwiler has been impressive and I like him over Bergeson tonight as things are clicking for the Nats. Detroit is overvalued tonight as road faves after sweeping a lowly Cubs ballclub. I expect Wandy Rod to come out and outperform Verlander for the win. Speaking of the Cubs, they can not seem to win ballgames of late. Swept by Detroit when 2 of the games were in reach for wins until they folded up shop. This afternoon Contreras will have his way with these Cubs and keep them on the losing path. Finally, the Rays have shown some life as have the Marlins. Should be a close call tonight, but I have found that teams going on the road after facing a weak opponent at home struggle. I expect the fish will struggle tonight after a seemingly easy series with Baltimore.
$300 Texas -1.5(-115) SD/Tex Under 10.5 Oakland -140
Analysis: Looking to get at least 2 of 3 of these, but 3-0 would be nice. Millwood should be this heavy of a fave tonight at home as he has been dominant in this ballpark. The Pads are just awful and send Walter Silva to the hill. Silva and the Pads allow 5 or more each time he starts. With Texas getting the offense going this should be a 5+ run margin. Millwood should not allow more than a couple tonight unless this one gets sloppy, hence the only chance of an over hitting. Like the under as I see no more than 9 coming in. Besides for a 9 run outburst the other night, the Pads have scored 26 runs in the last 10 games. As far as the Rockies and their 17 wins in 18 games streak is all but over losing 2 straight. They head into another seemingly weak series with Oakland and Brett Anderson who pitched well last time out despite losing. Rocks are on the downswing now and will struggle to hit Anderson. Public favors Colorado heavily, as +130 dogs but there is a reason why this line is what it is. Let us not forget that. When a line sometimes looks to good to be true it is.
$100 Bos/Atl Under 8 Fla/TB Under 8
Analysis: Small plays on these two totals for a few reasons... Beckett has absolutely owned Atlanta in years past. It seems like whether it is 2008 or 2003, his stats dont change much vs. Braves. He has alot of 0's when facing Atlanta as far as ERs go so look for Atlanta to struggle for runs after putting up close to double digits last night. This stays under with a greatly contested game by Jurrjens and an error free effort by Escobar and the Braves fielders. Johnson will face Shields and these guys steadily put up good numbers in Tampa. Shields obviously is the good guy at home and Johnson and the fish see opponents putting up an average of 3 regularly on the road. I see a 4-3 game at best here tonight as long as the bullpens finish strong.
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The Aftermath...
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Yesterday: 4-5, -4.35 units
Units remaining: 305.60
6/27/09
$400 San Fran/Milwaukee OVER 9 $400 Wsh/Balt UNDER 10.5 $400 Cincy/Cleve UNDER 10.5 $300 Oakland -130 $200 Florida/Tampa Bay UNDER 9.5 $200 Seattle/LA Dodgers UNDER 7.5 $100 Yanks/Mets UNDER 9
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The Aftermath...
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6-1 for 13+ units yesterday. Hopefully this is the new beginning.
Instead of posting the 300 units as the goal, which might be misleading, I am back to the 200 showing I am down 92 units since the start as I try to climb my way back.
The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09) Yesterday: 6-1, +13.10 units Units remaining: 292.50
6/28/09
$300 Milwaukee -150 $300 Houston +125 $300 Philly/Toronto OVER 10 $100 Colorado/Oakland UNDER 7.5
$1000 NY Yankees -130
The New Yorks will face for the last time in 2009 most likely. Wang will go for the Yanks while Hernandez counters to try to get the Mets a win in the series. Mets are still in a bad way without their stars. When they return, maybe they can make a run, but until then...For now the Mets will struggle until that can become a reality. The Yanks have owned the Mets at the plate. Wang has seemingly gotten better with each start despite his 11+ ERA on the year. His last 2, were nearly identical with 3 ERs, 4 Ks, 6 hits allowed over 5 inngs. NYY lost both of those gms. Hernandez has not had luck vs. Yanks. His recent 3 show him allowing 6 runs on average in 5 innings. Yanks will stay hot, get a good enough outing from Wang, and sweep the Mets in the final IL game of 09.
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The Aftermath...
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The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-3, +0.2 units Units remaining: 292.30
6/29/09
(70%+ angles should hit 6 of next 8 sides)
$500 Washington +170
Nats have a 10-0 angle backing them tonight with this one, as this is my strongest of the evening in terms of probable win pct. The Nats are coming off the win while Florida was swept on the road. The public will over-value the home team in this situation in which they are. The Nats are getting good dog money as Olsen returns to face his old club. The motivational factor is in efeect, not to mention a revenge angle that shows the Nats blew 3 possible wins against this Marlins team earlier this season. Nats pen has been performing much better at this point in time and this time I see them holding onto a win. Should be a tight contest either way. Nats by a run.
$500 NY Mets +120
Mets gave us a 10 unit winner last night but after another embarrassing loss to the Yanks, they will be hungry for blood tonight against Braden Looper. The one bright spot for the Mets right now is their rotation as Redding, Hernandez and now Nieve, who goes tonight, have been key. No run support is killing this team. I feel if they can get at least 3-4 off Loop tonight, they should handle the Brewers in the first game of this series. After being held to a handful of hits over the last couple games look for the Metropolitans to fire up on all cylinders tonight and get this much needed road win.
$500 Toronto -150
Halladay will be back tonight for Toronto as he has missed time recently. The Jays host the Rays in game 1 of this set. Toronto needs Roy to get back into the groove he has been in. Halladay, hurt or not, is a must play at home laying only minimal chalk here tonight as he is 10-1 on the year. He is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home, while his opposition has struggled of late. Niemann has given up 9 ERs in his last 3, with 2 of those on the road. Now that isnt terrible but it is when you discuss the fact he has only gone less thab 13 innings over those 3 starts. If he does not give TB a good strong long outing tonight, they will not have a chance. Toronto should be able to outscore the Rays, and if they get Niemann out early they will have a field day on the shaky Rays pen. Toronto by a couple.
$500 Detroit -110
Porcello is a must play off the win yesterday where he is superb on the road. Anderson has struggled at home all year and is 1-4 with a 5+ ERA there. Oakland is usually a pitcher friendly park but Anderson would not agree. Opponents have scored 3 or less in 8 of Porcellos last 10 starts. Oakland has scored 3 or less in 4 of their last 5 at home so there are no guarantees of a big night. Detroit should win this by 3 or more based on the numbers of both teams pitching and hitting. Oakland has also lost by 2.5 runs average in their last 5 gms during their losing streak.
$500 LA Dodgers -110
Someone needs to stop the Rockies before they cruise to a wild card berth and claim another NL championship. The competition has not been strong for Colorado as they have faced some weak clubs and good ballclubs that were slumping. They lost the series to a hot Angles team, and the LAD rank up there. LA has lost 4 of 5 but have yet to lose 3 straight games all year let alone 3 straight at home. They swept Colorado last time here, outscoring them 27-10 in a 3 game series. Wolf is on a bounce-back, and considering this Dodger team pounded Jimenez last time puts a damper on the Rockies winning yet again. Rocks are 1-4 in Jimenezs last 5 road starts. Colorado swept on the road and stay on the road, a place where LA has won 26 of 38. LA by a few.
$500 Texas -120 $200 LAA/Tex Under 10.5
This game is off a similar scenario as the Marlins fade was the other night. Marlins had an easy opponent and went on the road to face a tougher team. Same here as the Angels took care of business at Arizona and now face a division rival in Texas. The Rangers are coming off a slump with hitting besides for two games ago where they scored 12. This one should go under the total of a steep 10.5, where both of Texas totals went under in their last couple. Sully goes for the Angels while Padilla starts for Texas. Both starters have done exceptional this year, mind you Sully has only two starts, but impressive. Sully has not faced a line-up quite like this and if Texas can put up 4-5 they should easily take this one. I see a 5-3 final here.
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The Aftermath...
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The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-5, -22 units
Units remaining: 314.30
6/30/09
$500 Arizona -130
As bad as the Backs have looked I think they outmatch Arroyo and Cincy tonight. Arroyo has been awful over his last several especially at home.
$500 Seattle +220
Big chance here as Morrow comes off the decent outing. He previously held the Yanks to 1 ER over 7 innings. I won't be shocked if the result is the same tonight. Yanks have played weak slumping teams lately, way overvalued.
$300 Cubs/Pirates OVER 8
Lilly is coming off a rough start and I look for him to struggle tonight. No evidence states this will be a low scoring game. Both sides would need to not hit and pitchers would need great outings. Don't see it. Look for at least 9 in this one, 5-4.
$200 LAA/Texas OVER 10.5
Look at Saunders and Feldman in this park against these rosters and you would agree. Coming off a low scoring game yesterday, Sauders has struggled against Tex for the most part and this one should see 13-15.
$200 Boston -120
Worth the shot with Sox as small road faves coming off win last night. Smoltz got the rust out after a rough outing last time. He will bounce back strong tonight being undervalued. Hill has been a nice fill for the O's but has struggled in home starts this year.
$200 Philly +115 $100 Phi/Atlanta OVER 9
These teams will hit the ball in this game. Philly seems to be scoring again and Lowe has struggled. Blanton has been great lately but has not had success with Atlanta. Philly will get it done on Atlanta's pen late in this one. Look for at least 12 scored tonight.
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The Aftermath...
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The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 2-4-1, -5.7 units
Units remaining: 320
I am happy that June is over. Gives me a fresh start for a new month and hopefully these 1 run losses stop over the next 60+ days. The losses have been nothing short of brutal, capping off with Philly pitching in a non force situation with runners in scoring position and one out(lousy call). How about Seattle coming back twice but falling short in NY. Morrow got out of trouble several times. They had opportunity. Lastly, was that really Boston who blew a 10-1 lead in the bottom of the 7th and 8th innings last night. Come on. It doesn't get much worse when the capping is dead to rights and you still somehow seem to lose. Best call of the night was the Texas over which came in right in the middle of the 13-15 predicted runs in a 9-5 final. Let's get July rolling.
$1000 Toronto +115
Jays look to avoid being swept today and with Ricky Romero on the mound it is very possible that the Jays accomplish this task at hand. Romero has allowed just 10 ERs in 31 innings at home this year. He has allowed 3 or less ERs in 8 of his last 10. Dominant all year long so far. James Shields counters for the Rays who look to win their 8th straight. Shields usually pitches well vs. Toronto but the Jays finished with 13 runs in his last 2 outings while his previous 6 to those starts saw the jays total 18 runs. If the Jays can hit today and give Romero run support this one is in the bag. Jays are winless in their last 10 games when they average less than .250 hitting for the game. They need hits today and will get them. Jays 4-3.
$100 NYM/Mil OVER 7.5
The Mets have just been awful of late. Their lack of hitting is now bleeding into their pitching as Nieve and Santana struggled recently vs. Brew. Today Pelfrey has his turn. He allowed 4 ERs in 5 innings last time out vs. Milwaukee. Gallardo goes for Milwaukee and shut down the Mets this season over 6 strong innings of 5 hit ball. Brew won that one 1-0. This time around the Mets should muster up a couple at least but it is the Brewers that should send this one over the total. These teams equalled 25 runs already in this series. I dont see the run scoring stopping today. I just hope this is not one of those 2-1 games going into the 7th. Should see at least 9 here.
$300 Arz/Cin UNDER 8.5
Garland and Cueto look to continue the trend of unders these teams have played for years. I feel that this one should see at most 7 runs tonight keeping this one under the 8.5 listed. Garland is doing a much better job on the road compared to at home. He only has a 2.60 ERA away from home, and has looked sharp overall in 2 of his last 3. The problem is run support as the D-Backs have been outscored 55-31 in the 8 previous losses with Garland on the hill. As a team the backs are 2-8 in Garland's last 10 starts. Look for Cincy to win and get revenge after last night but still keeping this one under. Cueto has allowed just 5 ERs in his 3 starts vs. Arz and the D-Backs have scored just 6 total in those games.
$200 Chisox/Cle UNDER 9.5
One of the better totals on the board for today. Contreras has been superb lately as has Sowers. Contreras has allowed 7 ERs over his last 4 games. Sowers is coming off a stunning start at home vs. Cincy. Contreras has pretty much owned Cleveland over his last 4 meetings. How about 4 ERs in those games including both in Cleveland were shutouts. Cleveland has averaged 2 runs per game in those previous meetings. Sowers did allow 5 ERs at home this year to this Sox club but allowed just 2 ERs in his last meeting with them. Unless the pens fail in this one these starters will likely keep this one under.
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The Aftermath...
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The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-1, +15.4 units
Currently: -104.6 units
Units remaining: 304.6
Great way to kick off July, going 3-1 last night for 15+ units. Hopefully this month will reverse mirror June. 61 days remaining, a good two full months. Totals have been the hotter of the selections placed. A tally of 11-3-1 in roughly a weeks time for nearly 20 units in profit. Hopefully sides will start doing the same.
7/2/09
$300 Kansas City +135
The Royals are going to give comebacker Bruce Chen another shot tonight. The White Sox look to continue their hot hitting when they travel to KC. Chisox may be overvalued today, coming off the travel after game with a lowly Cleveland club. Royals can hit the ball and should have some success vs. Buehrle. I like the home dog in this spot. All signs point to the Sox as they come off the sweep, playing a team that has struggled, and face a pitcher who gave up 4 on the road last time out. All of those facts have little significants. What is of greater importance is the fact that all signs point to Chicago as an easy win tonight. I doubt that as we have not seen Chen at home. KC lost a home series and will look to win at home here. Play the home dog tonight.
$300 Atlanta -135 $200 Phi/Atl UNDER 8
Look for the Braves to rid themselves completely of their previous slumping losing streak as they have outplayed the Phillies in the first two looking to make it 3 for 3. Vasquez will take the bump for the Braves where he has dominated lately. Especially against Philly in his last 3, which were on the road, just 8 ERs allowed in a hitter friendly park. Opponents have scored a combined 14 runs in his last 6 home starts. He will go pretty deep and limit the pen work which has done a good job of late. Happ will counter for Philly, but this team has lacked run support for their starters. In their last 10, minus the two 10 run outbursts, they average less than 3 runs per game. Happ has just allowed 2 ERs in 2 starts vs. Atlanta in his career. Braves get more on the board, 3-2.
$200 St.Louis -130
Cards get a win after the win tonight as Wellemeyer faces Zito. Surprisingly both starters have good numbers against these opponents. Zito has only allowed 9 ERs in his last 3 vs. STL and Wellemeyer has allowed 6 ERs in 3 starts vs. SF. The key here is that the SF bullpen has always struggled in Zito outings vs. this Cards team. They gave up 7 runs in the last 2 meetings, all in less than 6 innings. Cards averaged 7 runs over the last two meetings with Zito. Wellemeyer has stifled SF two of three outings. Should see a very lopsided contest tonight. Cards by 4 or more. Runline may be more of a lucrative wager.
$200 Seattle +1.5(+115)
The Mariners have fought to try and take a game from the Yanks. They keep coming up short. In gm 1, they tied the game twice. After the second tie, they gave it up in the bottom of the inning. Last night they did the same exact thing. Tonight they send Vargas to the hill to try and get the Ms in the win column vs. NY. Sabathia will be the home starter. CC has impressed me lately, as has Vargas. The difference is Vargas has not shown good road numbers. The Ms are due for a solid outing from a starter as Morrow and Wash did not do enough. Opponents are averaging 5 runs per game with Vargas on road. CC will not give up much but I am banking that Vargas steps up and the Ms keep this close. They lost gm 1 by 3, and by 2 runs last night. Hoping the pattern continues.
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The Aftermath...
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