Boston v. LA Lakers

A.S.W.A. · #1 (**permalink**) 06-05-08, 05:21 PM

Here are my Finals thoughts going into game 1 tonight:

Not sure on this total at 191.5 but I kind of like the over in this game. I know Boston is a tough playing home team but both meetings during the season were 201. 1-1 on the o/u. The Lakers are playing a team that can score unlike the Spurs droughting game after game. The Lakers can also score and I feel as though they will not hold Boston back as much as a Detroit would. I think even though this total is almost 10 points off of the average for these 2 teams during the season I'd stick with whats working. Think about it this way. The Boston totals were abnormally low playing Detroit. Low 170's. The Lakers hit all 4 unders against the Spurs due to the lack of scoring. I personally think this line is close to being right. Just need to get on the right side. I always will go against the trends that other people think will continue to happen. Everyone is looking at the above stats and saying that 191.5 is high. Personally Boston took care of business at home and on the road against LA during the season. I doubt Gasol will be that big f an impact against the best team in the NBA. Not in Boston anyway. Coaching edge does go to Jackson but if the Lakers struggle Kobe could go back to doing it himself and get his team in trouble. I think Boston will win and cover in game 1 tonight. Boston 99-95 for game 1.

2* BOSTON -3
2* LA/BOS OVER 191.5

A.S.W.A. · #2 (**permalink**) 06-08-08, 12:16 PM

Well back to the NBA finals after a couple days off. This line move is treacherous. I personally don't see how everyone loves the Lakers tonight as they are now laying 1 on the road against the best team in the league and the best home team in the league. Even with foul trouble and bad shooting late in the game the Celtics handled it and covered easy allthough it didn't look that way for most of the game until a couple minutes left in regulation. Kobe Bryant can't do it alone and never was able to get this far because of that. You saw the same situation in the late part of the 4th when he took the game and put it on his shoulders. This team won't win that way. Personally I feel the same thing will happen but this game should be a little closer. The Lakers have not covered against Boston yet this season. Back in November the Lakers lost by 13, then in a re-match at home they laid 3 and lost outright. Now losing in game 3 they have an 0-3 record su and ats against the Celtics. Laying 1 in a "must win" game 2 on the road means nothing. They can lose tonight and take the next 3 at home. Thats how the NBA works. Even if Boston loses at home they should cover in game 3 on the road or even game 4 getting points in both. I'm going right back to the Celtics and the over in game 2 tonight as I feel this one ends up in the mid 190's tonight. There is no way the Lakers will finish the game 4 of 20 from the field and Garnett won't miss 9 of 10 shots either in the 4th. I personally see a 98-96 game. These 1 point lines usually end in a win by a basket. Expect a close game ether way.

2* LA/Bos Over 190.5
1* Boston +1

HammerTime · #3 (**permalink**) 06-08-08, 09:17 PM

Phil Jackson's teams are 9-1 in game 2 of the NBA Finals.

lillefty · #4 (**permalink**) 06-09-08, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HammerTime

Phil Jackson's teams are 9-1 in game 2 of the NBA Finals.

I guess now it's 9-2

A.S.W.A. · #5 (**permalink**) 06-09-08, 09:37 AM

2-0, +3 Units

The Lakers are in no shape or form the Bulls of the 90's unfortunately.
Jackson won't get so lucky this time around. Think they'll only take 2 of 3 at home and Boston will put it away in game 6.

WiseGuy1 · #6 (**permalink**) 06-09-08, 11:57 AM

Agree completly, and I have the bet on the Celtics in 6.

A.S.W.A. · #7 (**permalink**) 06-10-08, 04:57 PM

Game 3:

1.5* LAL -9.5

Too high? Not for me. I feel that a team going home 0-2 will pulverize in game 3. I like this one. The books know that everyone will be on Boston getting that much and allthough they have covered in 4 straight now vs. LA I think the Lakers showed alot in game 2 coming back to having a chance to actually win that game. They should cruise tonight as Boston will need an adjusting game away from home. Lakers tonight Boston in game 4 baby!

A.S.W.A. · #8 (**permalink**) 06-12-08, 04:19 PM

GAME 4 ANALYSIS:

The Lakers have all of a sudden become an under team at home. I was all over the Lakers/Spurs overs and none hit. The other night I did like the under but didn't play it. These teams are getting harder to figure out by the minute but one thing is certain...
The Lakers have not covered a spread against Boston all season. This includes all 3 games in the finals as well. Whether they are favored or dogged they can't cover. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if they do tonight. The line was high the other night but the Lakers should've gotten a cover. They led almost the entire game and at times had double didget leads. A poor finish left me in the losing column. Tonight I feel confident I can get back to the winning ways. 3-2 in the Finals so far. Looking for another 2-0 night tonight as I am going for the full number of plays. I think you will see the same horrible play as in game 3. Garnett has not flourished at all in this series. Seems to look worse and worse as the games go by. This is the middle game of 3 in LA. I think the Celtics stayed within range the last game and the Lakers need this game even more than the last one. Now at a 2-1 deficit they can't afford too go down 3-1 much like not going down 3-0. I think the Lakers will play alot better tonight. I think Kobe will hit those free throws tonight. Even though both lines have dropped from the last game I see the Lakers winning by a few more than in game 3. With that they should cover for the first time. I am picking my spot because when the Lakers do blow out the Celtics they won't cover the next game. Everyone will be on Boston tonight. I'm sticking with LA as I see them scoring more tonight and holding Boston to about the same. The under was a sure winner last game. Boston hasn't had much success on the road and fail to put up high numbers of points. I think it wil be close but I think they will get to the mid to high 180's tonight. My picks for tonight:

2* LA Lakers -7
1.5* Bos/LA Under 191.5

A.S.W.A. · #9 (**permalink**) 06-15-08, 12:33 AM

Throwing this one down early as some money may effect the line. I don't care how I currently feel about this series and what has been going on. Boston may just put this away in 5. I originally thought 6 games figuring on Boston taking the first 2 at home and at least 1 in LA before winning it all at home. After the comeback the Lakers are down and possibly out of it. Kobe will be fine of course but how will his teammates play? At this point these guys have to be a little intimidated by the Celtics. I have followed this and Boston has covered in all 6 games against LA ths year. Four of those games were as dogs. The moneyline would've been a nice hit last game and I'm thnking of going all out in this one as this could be over. I always say trends are your friend in the NBA and with the Celtics covering 4 as dogs, 6 straight vs. LA and the under hitting in the last 6 Laker home games this is where my money and attention is going. Anyone can try to bet against these picks by the thought that the over has to hit and the Lakers have to cover. Not always, especally in the NBA. I think the under is the safest play as 1 of 2 things can happen. Number 1, the Celtics keep this one tight again, down to the wire in a defensive game, or number 2, the Lakers get revenge and blow out Boston holding them to minimal points. One of these 2 will happen. I personally think Boston is the way to go getting 7. Books think that LA actually still has a shot in this series. I'm going to finish this playoff out riding these plays hoping to cash big to end the week and the NBA season.

2.5* Boston +7
2.5* Bos/LAL Under 190.5
1.5* Boston +4 (1st half)
1* Boston $ +275

A.S.W.A. · #10 (**permalink**) 06-17-08, 06:57 PM

NBA FINALS: GAME 6

1.5* Boston -1 (1ST QUARTER), if loss play 3* on Boston in 3rd Qtr.
2.5* Boston -3.5 (Bet Jamaica)
2.5* LA/Boston UNDER 191

The reason for this is short and sweet. Boston should finish LA off here at home tonight barring some miracle comeback by the Lakers. LA barely pulled out 2 wins at home, losing 1 game. As I've predicted Boston took the first 2 straight up and took one on the road. Now a game 6 win will solidify my prediction. Between these teams this season and post-season. trends have been huge. Boston has covered in all 7 meetings this year dog or favorite. The scary thing is the line considering how they've played at home and in LA. Ray Allen could be the reason as he might be out of the line-up but he will play tonight. He can help end this thing and go home to his family and end the chapter missing from his career. Boston's bench is ready if Allen can't go. I think they have tremendous depth. If Phil Jackson survives this game tonight on the sidelines after the way his team has played he can survive anything. His team almost blew the game at home in game 5, the one after the biggest comeback in NBA finals history. The NBA does produce swings in runs but LA had two huge 1st qtr leads in games 4 and 5 and blew both of them. Luckily they won one game. Boston I don't think will runaway with this tonight as the Lakers will fight but I feel they get a 5 point or more win. Think the lack of defense in the last game will not lack tonight as this is survival. There won't be many points scored tonight. It seems as though the first qtr of play sets the pace of the game and no matter what it comes down to the last minute of the game for the total anyway. There won't be 60 scored in the first tonight so look for 45-48 tonight setting the pace for an under finish. I also think after the beatings Boston took in the first qtr on the road, they will win the first quarter tonight. I can see LA finishing the quarter with 12-16 points. Don't be surprised if that happens. Like most NBA games though they'll get back into it get close or lead somewhere toward the end but Boston will prevail. Boston 96-91.