Indiancowboy (IC): July 19th

indiancowboy · #1 (**permalink**) 07-19-08, 03:52 PM

Saturday, July 10th

Saturday: 2-1 (1-0 mlb, 1-1 wnba)
Friday: 3-1 (2-1 mlb, 1-0 wnba)

Baseball
Over 60% in Baseball Last 2 Months (60 days): 36-21 (62%)

15 of 20 baseball winners (75%) (7 Dogs)

PODs:
27-17 Last 44 PODs (60%)
65-43-3 (60%), Doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 132 Days)

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Saturday MLB Research

Kansas city vs. Whitesox

Meche did help his team in his last start with a 5+ ERA, but that was a non-quality start for him, he gave up 10 hits in less than 6 innings agianst seattle at home, before that he had 5 of 6 quality starts and to this credit has not pitched a back to back non-quality start in quite some time, he did face the White Sox earlier this year, and had a 6.36 era on the road in which the royals lost 2-6, before that, last year, he had 3 quality starts against them at 3.86, 3.18 and 1.29 - so he very well can pitch well against the white sox, and indeed he is likely on a revenge and a bounce-back here against them. Floyd on the other hand comes off a 20.30 ERA start at Texas so he is undoubtedly in for a bounce-back here as he is 7-1 with a 2.57 era at home, he had a 2.57 era against kansas city earlier this year at home as well, staying away here though, kc has a bit of revenge as does Meche, I can see the royals winning this late and on top of that, I can see the total going either way with meche pitching better and the royals who might get to floyd, although floyd is on the bounce-back from a rough outing at texas, no thanks.

Detroit vs. Baltimore

Robertson got rocked at home in his last start for 10 hits and 5 runs for a 6.43 era against the twins, who seem to be rocking everyone these days, before that, on the road he pitched a 1 era gem against Seattle, remember, that gem came after the twins had rocked in him Minnesotta for a 13.50 era, and he seems to be going back and forth with quality and non-quality starts, note that he is 3-5 with a 6.04 era on the orad, but he did show he can pitch a quality start on the road when he went to seattle on the bounce-back and pitched a complete game 4 hit 1 run game, Cabrera has a tendency to surprise folks at home, as he is 3-0 with a 4.60 era at home, he had a 2.08 era on the road at boston in his last start, he has not faced Detroit this year and Robertson has not faced the Orioles as well, the first 2 games between these 2 teams of late have totaled 11 runs, so the total sits at 10 runs here, I wouldn't be surprised to see an under though especially with Robertson on the bounce-back, I just hate to go against Cabrera at home, small lean on the Tigers as well as the under here.

Texas vs. Minny

Over 60% favor Minny here in this ballgame and why shouldn't they, they are 54-42 and 33-18 at home, while Texas is just 4 wins off the pace with 50 but 25-26 on the road, however, that is a far cry from their results last year. Texas lost 0-6 yesterday so they look to bounce-back today, they lefty Matt Harisson gets the start and although he has helped his team win both ballgames he has pitched in this year, he had a 16.92 era start against the white sox at home, luckily they still won 12-11 against Contreras b/c that was my pod and I was on the Harrison and the rangers for that game, he gave up 5 runs in less than 3 innings in that game though, having said that, in his first home start against the Angels, he gave up just 5 hits in 7 innings for 2 runs and the Rangers ended up winning 3-2 as the kid outdueled Joe Saunders and cashed as a +115 dog, Livan has had 3 straight rocky starts of late, he had a 5.14 against milwauke at home, he had a 4.5 era against cleveland at home, although that was a success as the twins did win 12-3 in that ballgame (glad they won b/c that was another game I had pegged for the Twins as I went against Byrd on the road b/c of the splits), and comes off a 12.47 era against Boston on the road, in a game they lost 5-18. Thus, Livan is on a big bounce-back, having said that, Texas has rocked him for 9 and 10 hits this year in less than 3 and 6 innings, in other words, 19 hits and 9 innings. He had a 23.68 era and 8.44 era as both games went over at 10 and 15 runs. This game can go one of many ways, for one the Rangers love hitting Livan, but he could avoid losing 3 in a row to the Rangers this year which most pitchers do, Livan is on a big bounce-back as is the Harrison kid. The gutsy call here would be the under and given that 66% of the public enjoys the over, I believe both pitchers likely show up as they need to have quality starts today.

Saturday WNBA Research

Indiana vs. New York

New York enters this game as a 7 point favorite and with love from over 58% of the public, Indiana first beat this team 83-69 on june 19th and easily covered at home, new york then beat this team by 6 in triple over time as these 2 teams went back and forth in the longest game in wnba history, thus, this is revenge game for Indiana, Indiana comes off a 6 point outright loss to Seattle at home despite Seattle not having Lauren Jackson for the ballgame, Indiana also lost to Atlanta outright at home as well, it seems the Liberty have turned the corner as New York has covered 5 straight ballgames, beat Conn outright on the road, drilled Washington at home by 21, beat Detroit at home, lost to San Antonio on the road but covered, beat Phoenix at home and of course beat the Sparks outright on the road in a massive 4th quarter come back and once again winning outright despite being a 9.5 dog. I lean on New York given how well they are playing, but I have to respect Indiana's revenge factor and the 7 points b/c Indiana did go to triple overtime on this same floor recently. Of course, watch new york drill this team today, but no thanks, staying away.

Minny vs. San Antonio

67% riding the Silver Stars here, San Antonio beat this team by 7 at home earlier this year, minny beat this team by 12 at home before that, Minny comes off a tough 8 point loss on the road to Houston, but that was a revenge game for Houston, Minn is off a loss and has revenge here, San Antonio comes off a nice win at Phoenix, but they are great road covers and they have a tendency to win and fail to cover at home, they did that against Atlanta, New York and Sacramento, where they win, but fail to cover, likely the case here as well - I think Minny could hang within the 7 year, but hate going against the silver stars at home, but it makes sense here, you might need your tums on this one, but is at a 25% outright win for minny where they are likely to lead during portions of this game.

LA vs. Houston

Any team going into Houston has to worry, this team is 10-12 but 7-2 at home and all their wins come of late now they have figured how to finish ballgames with the mix of new and old they have. L.A. beat this team in overtime earlier this year, back on July 9th, and Los Angeles does come off a tough loss to Phoenix on the road, and they have lost their last 3 road covers, Houston has come back home where they have covered 3 straight and the only team to beat the Silver Stars on 3 occasions this year, I think the public is wrong here and the home team comets get it done as they take away the 3 game road trip they had and they have won 6 of their last 7 ballgames.

Atlanta vs. Phoenix

If you like high scoring ballgames, than this is your cup of team which sits at 185.5 which is a massive line for the wnba, just to give you some reference, an Indiana game is typically around 144 for a line. Atlanta fell short by 18 last time but expect them to play much better today as they have been great double-digit dogs on the road thus far, 60% of the public favors Phoenix but incorrectly in my opinion, people forget all that the Dream have done lately after their first win against Chicago, check out the numbers: they are on a up tick:

After winning against Chicago for their first win, they have rolled to 4 of 5 covers, and the one cover they failed, was agaisnt Chicago which Chicago of course had revenge. So, in reality to me, they have covered 4 in a row and they still get a double-digit spread here.

07/18/08 @SAC L 73-77 W 9
07/16/08 @IND W 81-77 W 10.5
07/13/08 @CHI L 66-79 L 5.5
07/11/08 @SA L 74-82 W 10.5
07/09/08 @MIN W 73-67 W 11

I think the Dream make a shocker and has a great shot at cover, and who knows, maybe even win this baby outright.

Saturday's Comp selection

(This is always one of the premium selections as I don't believe in doing selections that are not on the premium card, just never the pod, just believe it adds something more to the daily thread, thanks).

Rangers/Twins Under 11

Over 60% favor Minny here in this ballgame and why shouldn't they, they are 54-42 and 33-18 at home, while Texas is just 4 wins off the pace with 50 but 25-26 on the road, however, that is a far cry from their results last year. Texas lost 0-6 yesterday so they look to bounce-back today, they lefty Matt Harisson gets the start and although he has helped his team win both ballgames he has pitched in this year, he had a 16.92 era start against the white sox at home, luckily they still won 12-11 against Contreras b/c that was my pod and I was on the Harrison and the rangers for that game, he gave up 5 runs in less than 3 innings in that game though, having said that, in his first home start against the Angels, he gave up just 5 hits in 7 innings for 2 runs and the Rangers ended up winning 3-2 as the kid outdueled Joe Saunders and cashed as a +115 dog, Livan has had 3 straight rocky starts of late, he had a 5.14 against milwauke at home, he had a 4.5 era against cleveland at home, although that was a success as the twins did win 12-3 in that ballgame (glad they won b/c that was another game I had pegged for the Twins as I went against Byrd on the road b/c of the splits), and comes off a 12.47 era against Boston on the road, in a game they lost 5-18. Thus, Livan is on a big bounce-back, having said that, Texas has rocked him for 9 and 10 hits this year in less than 3 and 6 innings, in other words, 19 hits and 9 innings. He had a 23.68 era and 8.44 era as both games went over at 10 and 15 runs. This game can go one of many ways, for one the Rangers love hitting Livan, but he could avoid losing 3 in a row to the Rangers this year which most pitchers do, Livan is on a big bounce-back as is the Harrison kid. The gutsy call here would be the under and given that 66% of the public enjoys the over, I believe both pitchers likely show up as they need to have quality starts today.

indiancowboy · #2 (**permalink**) 07-19-08, 03:59 PM

Yesterday's Analysis: 2-1

Chicago Sky +2 (Outright Winner)

research:

Nearly 70% is riding the road team in Connecticut here and it seems the wheels might be falling off from the Sun from the recent forfeit they took at the hands of the Shock. Conn beat this team by 2 on the road last time out and of course, Chicago has revenge from that 2 point loss and would love to get it back as that was back on June 1st - score 73-75. The Sun are 0-4 over its last 4 ballgames and 0-4 ats as well, They lost to Washington and Indiana on the road after an early positive start on the road, Chicago comes off a brutal 1 basket loss to the Shock after coming all the way back from a 19 point deficit at half, but they did hit the backdoor cover though and has covered back to back ballgames by beating Atlanta at home in what was a big revenge game for them. I lean Chicago, but do realize that Connecticut is too good to be laying down over and over again, this is a playoff contending team, at some point they will step up, wouldn't be surprised to see this game go under, still lean on Chicago nonetheless.

write-up:

Bottom line is I think nearly 70% of the public are wrong, Conn's wheels will likely to continue to fall off today, the Sky are 4-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference of late, while Conn is 0-6 ATS against the East of late.

Bluejays/Devil Rays Under 8 (Winner) (good call on my end, total was 5)

Burnett is 5-2 over his last 7 starts, he comes off a great start at home against the Yankees where he gave up just 1 run in 8 innings for a 1.08 era, he got rocked against Tampa bay his last start for a 7.5 era as he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings and 5 runs, Shields comes off a rough start on the road against Cleveland having a 7.5 era there as well, he had a 2.57 era against Toronto earlier this year at home, and this was after 3 straight consecutive quality starts, note that Shields era at home is 2.13 this year with a 5-1 record where as his overall record 7-6 with a 3.83 era, meaning that his home/road splits are highly significant. I think Burnett has some pride and shows up here on the road and Shields returns with a quality start at home after the rough outing at Cleveland, having said that, I like the under here, but I hate playing an under involving Tampa bay, but I never mind playing an under with toronto considering they score 4.2 runs per game on average.

write-up:
I typically don't like taking a total of 8, I favor 8.5 far more, but having said that, I think both of these pitchers are ripe for a good start here today, if anything, Burnett can get burned, but he is look at possibly getting traded and wants to put his best foot foreward, check out the Yankee game for example and he has enough pride to not get rocked by tb again imo. Under is 8-2 of late when Burnett is an underdog and the under is 5-0 of late when Shields faces a team with a losing record at home. Under is also 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams in Tampa Bay.

Detroit/Washington Under 143.5 (pod) (Loss) (bad call on my end)

research:

Nearly 70% are riding the Shock on the road here not suprisingly, and Detroit did cover a 9 point spread by beating this team by 13 at home earlier this yaer, that game pushed at 145 when Detroit was at home in that ballgame, Do note that Detroit has had a tough go of it on the road losing 4 in a row and missing all 4 of those covers as well. Washington comes off losing by 21 on the road at New York, so I do expect them to play better today, like Atlanta did after that terrible loss, Washington did beat Connecticut and Indiana at home recently, if anything I lean on Washington and the under here, a bit more on the under. Remember, the 2 ballgames against Indiana and Connecticut, 2 similar teams to the Shock in many ways with their offense and defense on the road, totaled 133 and 98 as this is set in the low 140s.

write-up:

Bottom line here is I think that the Shock are a poor scoring team on the road, Washington of course has their revenge and will play their type of ballgame and even a Detroit vs. New York game did not total more than 138 so I don't expect this Washington team who plays even more methodical, has a bit worse offense than New York and generally a better defense than New York to be much more high scoring. I have this game in the high 120s today. The under is 9-3-1 when the Shock play a team with a straight up losing record meaning people overestimate the Shock value on the road both by points and by spread and the under is 4-1-1 for the Mystics when they play winning teams at home meaning they show up on defense at home and consequently the games become competitive and go under.

indiancowboy · #3 (**permalink**) 07-19-08, 04:48 PM

2 wnba (pod in wnba) (both 5* wnba selections). (Both Games of the Month if you will)
1 mlb (regular 3* mlb selection).

12-3 Lifetime career in 5* selections. let's roll.