NBA Finals/NHL gm 4

A.S.W.A. · #1 (**permalink**) 06-04-09, 05:27 PM

Everyone keeps talking about Jameer Nelson, and the lakers being a better rounded team, and the Magic won the 2 regular season meetings. These are all frivolous factors in a very meaningful game 1.

Here's the ASWA sees it:

Orlando did win both meetings and if you look deeper into it, they have taken care of this Lakers team multiple times in multiple years. Orlando has covered the last 3 meetings in LA, winning 2 of the 3 outright. At home, they managed to win just 1 of the last 3 meetings so we take this as a sign that the Magic are a good shot as dogs. I love the fact that Orlando took both game 1's so far this playoff season from the two best in the east, Boston and Cleveland, and went on to finish the job. Lakers on the otherhand, dropped game 1 to Houston at home and barely squeaked by the Nuggets in game 1. Lakers are just 2-4 ATS in game 1 and 2 at home this postseason. Orlando is 11-4 ATS last 15 playoff games. Still being undervalued. After dropping 4 ATS to Philly they have been hot. Looked bleak for them early, now they are finals bound. Magic have covered 7 of their last 8, and are still being dogged. Moneyline is another shot worth taking as I already cashed on a Magic ML this postseason, the win in Cleveland. Same vibe here as this team can win on the road.
The over is 4-2 in the last 6 mtgs, and 4 of the last 5 meetings went over the now 205.5 listed total. In LA, the total outputs for teams combined were 212, 201, and 215, in the last 3 there. Lakers are 1-10-1 ATS last 12 finals games, 2-10 ATS vs. NBA southwest, and 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings. This one should see a 106-103 final or somewhere very close as that is what all the numbers cruch up being!

$200 Orlando +6
$200 Orl/LAL Over 205.5
$100 Orlando $+235

NHL:

$200 Detroit +120
$200 Under 5.5

These teams wind up averaging 5 goals over several meetings in Pitt. Detroit has had success in Pitt especially with low scoring shutouts. Don't be shocked if the Pens get nothing or just a goal. Pens choked last year and again basing history on repeats is a golden thing. Detroit should win tonight, 3-1 or 3-2.