Road System

Budman 717 · #**101** (**permalink**) 01-12-10, 08:46 AM

One play tonight:

Orl @ Sac Game 1; play on Sac to cover

vymagic10 · #**102** (**permalink**) 01-12-10, 11:02 AM

whats the road system record YTD?

Sacteaser · #**103** (**permalink**) 01-12-10, 06:50 PM

System as of RIGHT now is 27-1 with this breakdown :

11 Lost G1
9 Lost G2
4 Lost G3
3 Lost G4

20 of 27 series ( 74% ) end in the first 2 games .

Top 5 ATS

Dall 13-6 68.4%
OKC 12-6 66.6%
ATL 12-7 63.2%
Char 11-7 61.1%
Philly 12-8 60.0%

Budman 717 · #**104** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 08:09 AM

0-1 last night as Sac takes care of business for 3 quarters. Unfortunately, they play 4 quarters. Jeez, 10 pts. in the 4th?

3 plays tonight:

Phx @ Ind Game 1; play on Ind to cover
SA @ Okc Game 1; play on SA to cover
Orl @ Den Game 2; play on Den to cover

Good luck.

Rebelson · #**105** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 10:40 AM

Phx @ Ind Game 1; play on Ind to cover
SA @ Okc Game 1; play on SA to cover
Orl @ Den Game 2; play on Den to cover

I think U mean play on Okc to cover not SA.

Budman 717 · #**106** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 01:29 PM

Thanks for catching that. I was up too late last night, and up too early this morning.

The play is on Okc to cover.

vymagic10 · #**107** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 01:34 PM

whats the chances all three of these hit>? I wanna parley

Rebelson · #**108** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 02:42 PM

A parlay would be too risky for me. I have been chasing the total to hit under as well on these series.

Sacteaser · #**109** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 09:08 PM

You are right Bud, . . . . my kings TANKED the 4th quarter . . . UGLY . . now they start a 6 game trip on Fri in Philly. Kevin Martin is back and that will be interesting to see.

Sacteaser · #**110** (**permalink**) 01-13-10, 09:10 PM

thats a good call too there Rebel. . . There actually was a post related to this system in that we would also play the under as well as fading the road team. A couple years ago when someone else was doing the tracking, both systems had a very high percentage. Intersted to see ho wthat works out. The Orl /Sac was under in Game 1. Might be worth watching.

Budman 717 · #**111** (**permalink**) 01-14-10, 09:05 AM

2-1 last night. Ind played a great 2nd half to beat Phx outright, and Orl was playing the 2nd of a B2B in Den. That's a pretty tough assignment.

No plays tonight. Next plays are Fri 1/15 with SA Game 2 and Sac Game 1.

The Totals chase was successful, although not as successful as the Sides chase we're doing this year. There was at least 1 Totals chase in March of 2008 that lost 5 games in a row (the Knicks, I believe). I did not track the totals chase last year, so I can't help there.

Rebelson · #**112** (**permalink**) 01-14-10, 09:58 AM

Bud, I didnt know about that. I only started in nov on the totals .
I have not loss yet. However since seeing your post I may lay off a bit.

Budman 717 · #**113** (**permalink**) 01-14-10, 11:00 AM

I don't mean to alarm you Rebelson. Money management is key in any chase system. In the totals chase example above, ask yourself this question: in a Game 5 of a chase, would you make a bet of 22.49 units to recover your losses from the previous 4 games plus 1 unit to net 1 unit?

Going from memory (which is most unreliable in my case), the Totals system worked pretty well from mid- to late December to March. March was really rough for some reason, but I don't think it had anything to do line adjustments. I think it was just random. The thread is probably still here, but I don't have the time right now to go looking for it.

How many totals chases have you won?

Rebelson · #**114** (**permalink**) 01-14-10, 08:30 PM

I am 8-0 so far with pheonix and san antonio series pending

Sacteaser · #**115** (**permalink**) 01-14-10, 10:22 PM

I would follow Buds advice. You are already up 8 units ( at least) . . just use a Money Management sytem and all will be good.

Sacteaser · #**116** (**permalink**) 01-14-10, 10:28 PM

System is now 29-1 with the following breakdown . .

12 Lost G1
10 Lost G2
4 Lost G3
3 Lost G4

75.8% are over in the first 2 games of a series . . . .WOW

Keep an eye on the Kings 6 game trip . . . . Kevin Martin is playing on Fri . . first game since early Nov . .and the Kings DO NOT play well on the road.

Budman 717 · #**117** (**permalink**) 01-15-10, 09:09 AM

2 Games tonight:

SA @ Cha Game 2; play on Cha to cover
Sac @ Phi Game 1; play on Phi to cover

Rebelson, you're tempting me to start chasing totals again. Do you use any filters? The old thread passed on the Top 5 scoring teams, much like we pass here on the Top 5 ATS road teams.

Budman 717 · #**118** (**permalink**) 01-15-10, 09:24 AM

I found the old thread. The Totals filter used was if a team's ave. pts for plus ave. pts allowed was 205 or greater, that team was a "no play."

Sacteaser · #**119** (**permalink**) 01-15-10, 10:54 AM

You are awesome Budman .. . . . . . . . and is that minus the top 5 scoring teams ???

Budman 717 · #**120** (**permalink**) 01-15-10, 01:15 PM

No, the Top 5 scoring teams were included.

For example (and I'm making these numbers up), let's say GS was a Top 5 scoring team on the offensive side of the ball, and averaged 104 pts per game. But let's also say their defense is holding their opponents to 98 pts per game. The 104 + 98 = 202, so GS would be a play chasing the under.