Pho/Wash game total opens at 224, I don't know if i should jump on that now, or if the public might knock it even higher. Either way the posted number is about where i thought it would be. I feel pretty good about this one going under
Total opened at 224, and is now at 224.5. Which backs my theory that the public just loves pounding the over in suns games. Vegas is gunna get em, they won't just keep handing out money every suns game. It happens toinght, this one is going under.
unreal, 60-55 at the half. Just no defense to speak of for either team. On pace to go over the total. I'm very tempted to try and buy out of this bet by taking the 2nd half over. Taking all my discipline not to do it.
update: decided to hold out hope on the under, didn't take the halftime over. WOULD SOMEONE JUST PLEASE PLAY SOME DEFENSE!
Chris, i really think we gotta tweak this a bit. Not necessarily removing the top 5 teams that go over the spread, but instead the top offensive teams in the league. Something like maybe the top 5 scoring teams in the league you don't use the O/U part of the system. Teams like Phoenix, Golden State, Lakers, etc....
i feel if both the ATS and O/U part of the system have a safety net of removing the top 5 teams it will be even better. Let me know what you think amigo.
I agree completely. It's always scary playing Suns/Warriors/Washington/Seattle etc Unders. I've been insanely busy but I'll look into it shortly. I still see a lot of potential in the O/U portion of the system, and of course have loads of confidence in the ATS plays
__________________ NBA Road System
ATS: 33-0 (+33)
O/U: 44-0 (+44)
Overall: 77-0 (+77)
Man, chasing the Under in the Pho series was way too close for comfort but in the end, the theory held. The back to back road game on the back end of the trip was just too much for the Suns, as they failed to score 40 in the second half. They can put up 40 in a single quarter. Even though the sytem won I am still going to tweak it with the help of Daviddaman to possibly remove some of these Over Machines like the Suns.
On another note, fading a team playing a back to back road game on a long trip was an outright winner and a sure fire under improving both of those systems to 13-9. Still too small of a sample size to follow every day. However, if you are already leaning on a particular team and they happen to fall into the aforementioned system, it may help you pull the trigger.
The next series starts tomorrow. We'll be playing the Hornets to cover the Sonics, and likely the under as well. Two of 5 games in this series feature back to back road games for the Sonics which should help us out. Seattle has won 3 of 4 I believe, so we may have to cover fewer points and end the ATS series early.
One other pattern I noticed on my spread sheet is fading a team playing it's 5th consecutive road game or more. These plays have hit 6-1 this season. Again, a small sample size but something I will keep an eye on. Milwaukee will be playing it's 5th straight road game Monday night in Sacramento. Moneyline anyone? I doubt I'll pull the trigger but taking the points might be a reasonable play. More on that on Monday. Until then....
Sunday's Plays: New Orleans Sea/NO Under
General rule of thumb, as most of you probably know: Bet favorites early and dogs late, as the line will often move against you and you will have to lay more points.
Good luck CL
__________________ NBA Road System
ATS: 33-0 (+33)
O/U: 44-0 (+44)
Overall: 77-0 (+77)
trusting the system while stressful and at times scary turned out to be the way to go. If played correctly the suns series netted 2 units of profit. 1 on the ATS, and 1 on the O/U... that is if you stayed with it 100% the way it is designed. The Milwaukee road trip earlier in the week... same deal 2 units of profit. 1 on ATS 1 on O/U.
The suns made us sweat it, but we got the W's and now move the hell on to teams that actually use more then 5 seconds of the shot clock.
Like Merrick said tomorrow we start to hit against seattle. With the hornets and and sea/no under.
Just to recap, this system since i jumped in is now:
2-0 ATS
2-0 O/U
and even better before that... stick with this system guys, it's a winner!
Have just read the entire thread and let me tell you that this system sounds very promising for people that view this as an investment...Just one question..where can i get a hold of the spreadsheet with all the games that fall into the system??
Can't thank Bigfella enough for shedding light on this system. It's nice to have a player with so much experience under his belt. For those who are interested in the spread sheet please PM me your email address. Do not email me at the email address I have registered with the site, it's not my preferred email and I rarely check it. I'll send the sheet as soon as I can, but I need to clean it up a little bit so it is more user friendly for everyone to follow.
Today's Plays:
Hornets -7.5 Under 195
i have already placed my ATS wager but I am going to wait until closer to tip off to play the Under. Heavy public is on the over so I am hoping to bump the total up a half point or so.
__________________ NBA Road System
ATS: 33-0 (+33)
O/U: 44-0 (+44)
Overall: 77-0 (+77)
One other thing. You may have noticed I added two wins to the ATS portion of the system. The reason for this, as Bigfella advised, is the system begins three weeks into the NBA season. There were two series that fit in that one-week window between about Nov 23rd to Dec 2nd or so when we began posting the system here at the lounge. You may wonder why I added those wins. It's simple. I am trying to track the system as ACCURATELY AS POSSIBLE on my personal spread sheet so I have credible records for seasons to come. It is much easier for me to stay consistent with the records I have on my spread sheet and the record posted on the site.
This shouldn't be a big deal but I wanted to be the first to speak of it before somebody thought I was adding phantom wins to the system to make it appear more successful. I can assure you I am not here to inflate my own ego, rather to share winners with all my peers here at the lounge. Good luck guys..
__________________ NBA Road System
ATS: 33-0 (+33)
O/U: 44-0 (+44)
Overall: 77-0 (+77)
Linear Mode
