Many shy away from the NFL-X for the simple reason that since the games don't count they aretoo unpreictable. I have to admit, I'm not one that subscribes to that philosophy, if there is a pointspread issued, then certain things will always show value along the way. I've decided to share some very hard and fast systems and thoeries, that have been tried and true for many years, and if you decide to play along, you can cash as well. Let's start with home dogs. Home dogs always seem to present interest, and value, and thee certainly is clear evidence that they wear an ultra glean during the NFL-X. Home dogs have been 75-48 ATS over the past 12 seasons, or 61%, certainly a percentage most anyone would grab, and be happy with. I've gone a bit further however. The AFC has been the better coference the past decade or so, and with it has come a 32-16 ATS ark in the NFL-X. The NFC has also done it's part in cashing winners at 43-32. There s another component to home dogs,and that s the totals in those games. They have gone under at a 72-50 mark, good for 59% as well. So history says, home dogs are 61% and unders are 59%, looks like a blind man could make a ton of money here,but let's not be blind, let's open our eyes to even greater value! There are 3 sets of games, that need to be extracted from these totals, with very logica reasoning (not backfitted unrelated meaning), big difference. The only game that starters play the bulk of the game in NFL-X is week 3. so does that make a difference to the advantage of the home dog? The obviously lesser team? You bet it does! Home dogs in week 3 are just 18-17 ATS, a virtual coin flip! The 2nd group of games are the Hall of Fame home dogs. They aren't really playing at home, but each year, the AFC, and NFC alternate hosting the game in Canton, and these become part of the home dog statstics, so we eliminate them as well. The 3rd group of games are those played by the Giants vs the Jets. Since both play every year, and both play in the same staidium, is there really a home dog? No, but they appear in the statistics as such. So you have to agree, these are logcal, meaningful groups of games, that are being extracted for the right reasons. So where dos that leave us? Extracting those games, the AFC is 25-7 ATS as a home dog the last 12 years or 78.1%!!!! Th NFC is 32-24 or 57%, combined 57-31 or 65%!!!!! The AFC has played 20-11 UNDER after the extracions, and the NFC 33-21 UNDER, for a combined 53-32, or 62% UNDERS!!!! So there is where the NFL-X value lies. So now in looking atthese trends, and reducing them to the most recent history (this decade 7 years), something about as valuable, as valuable gets emerges. I am not an advocate of parlays. Let me repeat I AM NOT AN DVOCATE OF PARLAYS!!!!! BUT...BUT....BUT, when you have 2 elements within the same game connecting at 65% and 62% don't you think there might be some value to a parlay? Well there is ome huge value! The past 7 years if you parlayed the home dogs and under (excluding of course week 3, HOF game, and NY vs NY), your parlays would be 28-26 or 52% winners!!!! Have you ever seen a parlay system ith over 50 games in the database, that wins over 50% of the time? Most don't hit that on straight ATS bets, here is a parlay system that has won 52% of the time wih 54 games in the database. Most systems erode over time, this one has gotten better. The last 7 years home dogs, less th extractions are 37-13 ATS 74%!!!! UNDERS same rules, 36-15-3 70.6%. Combined 73-28 72.3%!!! Not going to find to many 100+ game systems with over 100 games played at over 72%!!! Throw in the huge 52% parlay system, and I can only say one thing:
MREST.. I,too, like the value of home dogs. I think there is much value in them, in fact - try looking at some of stats, when you buy 3 points to the home dog, -170 odds yes, but if you can use some great money management skills, there isn't any reason why you couldn't pick up 20-25 units playing just these plays, just in the NFL..
According to my stats, buying 3 points for a home dog, and running a great money management system, I wouldn't have had anything less than 20 units since 1997, where I would have only made about 8. Still a profit, in my eyes....
To show you the value of knowing the opening and closing lines: In NFLX games only, home dogs (on the opening line) are 14-0-1 the last 15 occurrences.
Glad to see we have other members, on this forum, that are conscious of line similarities. This is the Las Vegas oddsmaker as his own best enemy that you are seeing in these similarities.
Hello all, I am new to forum and I'll be back to discuss the lines on the games as long as there is desire to discuss them here.
Btw MREAST, how were you able to compile such extensive records of home dogs. Obviously there is a database that I am not aware of...
To show you the value of knowing the opening and closing lines: In NFLX games only, home dogs (on the opening line) are 14-0-1 the last 15 occurrences.
NFLMAN, I don't think that's accurate. Last season these home dogs lost:
Week 2 St. Louis +2.5 L
Week 3 Carolina +1.5 L
Week 3 Green Bay +2.5 L
Week 3 Miami +2.5 L
The Giants also lost as a "home dog" in week 3 but it was vs. another home team in Jets so that really doesn't count.
Week 2 St. Louis +2.5 L
Week 3 Carolina +1.5 L
Week 3 Green Bay +2.5 L
Week 3 Miami +2.5 L
The Giants also lost as a "home dog" in week 3 but it was vs. another home team in Jets so that really doesn't count.
None of those teams were home dogs on the opening line. You must be reading the new Sportsform. Here, let me show you a good source for archived opening and closing lines.
Actually - let me add something... I totally left this out of the first post...
Look for home dogs that play on the opposite surface than their opponent... these dogs cover about 65% of the time since `97 (thats as far as I've gone back.) So for example, lets say that the Cincinnati will go to Cleveland - and Cleveland is a dog (week 2, 2007) Cleveland plays on grass field, Cincinnati plays on turf. So, take Cleveland and the points. Also - Stay away from December... this month is ridiculous in the NFL!!
Last season these plays hit 64% of the time, and the 06 season they hit about 62% of the time.
None of those teams were home dogs on the opening line. You must be reading the new Sportsform. Here, let me show you a good source for archived opening and closing lines.
Linear Mode
