Middle Tennessee State

Inflated number. That is exactly what this number is. Middle Tennessee State is not as good as Louisville and trust me when I tell you Louisville has become a public team that people are just laying the number no matter what it is. What this does is allows Vegas to "Inflate" the line knowing they are going to action no matter what. I mean, seriously, they are 4-0 SU and ATS with wins of 31 at home to Kentucky 59-28, then at Temple 62-0, then back home over Miami 31-7 and then at Kansas State 24-7. Now they are on the road again laying over 30 points. I am sorry but that is way too many points. As far as flat spots go, this is it for Louisville. Middle Tennessee State is 3-2 on the year, coming off a 35-0 rout at North Texas and will be a confident bunch at home. They went on the road at Maryland and lost 24-10 as a 23 point dog so it's not as if they are going to just lay down to Louisville. This is their bowl game and I fully expect them to be able to hang inside this number. You have to have a defensive that is motivated to cover a number this large and expecting Louisville's to be just that on the road on a Friday night is too much to ask of any defense. MTST has playmakers and a solid experienced QB in Clint Marks, who threw for over 2,000 yards last year. They have 8 starters back on offense and are playing much better right now. I am going to go with the home team catching a lot of points with a coach who is no stranger to big games. He was an assistant on Steve Spurrier's staff at South Carolina and was a QB at Florida State with Bobby Bowden. This man can motivate and coach and his team will not lay down tonight. I am grabbing the points and calling for a much more competitve game than people think. The play is Middle Tennessee State