there is certainly a history of struggle involving UCF vs BIG EAST teams. They have been 0-10 SU and just 1-9 ATS. It certainly makes one feel comfortable playing on PITT tonight, but makes me very uncomfortable. The reason being, the lack of success has moved the public to over 70%+ backing the Panthers, and although the public does win some games, why would you want to be on the same side as the public. My 30 yrs of capping experience tells me when you see 70%+ on the same side, stay away, or look the other way! It automatically, regardless of the game, puts you at a longterm disadvantage, as well as putting you in the threshhold of the cappers credo: "Thou shall not lay double digits on the road." Sometimes what appears to be a layup, gets back doored, fumbled away, fluke special teams play, etc, we have all been there. my thinking on this game is designed to put me on the best value offered, and although it may appear to be PITT, it is not. I do not see any value on UCF either, the line looks good to me, so where is the value?

I'll start with this, do you know what this is?

44
21
46
38
49
38
45
31
24
36

Remember those 10 BIG EAST opponents for UCF? This is what they scored. yes, they held S FLA to 24, but there exposes the value here as well. This UCF team is best suited for the smaller quicker teams, without the depth in the skill sets. S FLA is a favorable matchup, because they possess similar personnel, and depth, or lack thereof. They hold their own in these games. The reason why the BIG EAST teams they have been 0-10 against pose other problems is because they are bigger, with the speed, and with a deeper array of skill position players. This goes beyond the BIG EAST. PENN ST put up 37, WISCONSIN 34, and you can keep going. These aren't numbers this team gives up as a rule, except when they move up in class. They even gave up 24 to a SC team that scored 16 or less in 6 games. The history proves why they struggle, and where they struggle, on the defensive end. The 10 BIG EAST teams avg 37.2ppg vs UCF. No, they aren't vs this exact team, but it is exposing the talent discrepencies that are permenant between these levels of programs, so it is useful information. So why do I see more value here? How do you measure value? The consistency of the data will point you there. The 10 BIG EAST losses, lost to the spread by an average of 10 points a game. However, only 4 of them lost by 9 points or more, meaning there were some serious blowouts. Why is the #9 significant? it is the difference between the PITT team total of 28 tonight, compared to the avg BIG EAST team score of 37.2ppg vs UCF. The difference here is the consistency! The 10 teams that surpassed the PITT team total tonight of 28 by 9.2ppg, passed 36 on 7 of the 10 games. Only 4 passed the 10ppg avg of beating the spread by 10ppg. Are you starting to see the value, and how numbers can be misleading, if you don't detail your capping? The fact is 8 of 10 scored 31+. We talked about the S FLA 24. The true value in this game resides in playing PITT TEAM TOTAL OVER 28. There are 3 additional reasons. If PITT is playing the way the public feels they will, they are undoubtedly surpassing 28. If UCF gets some bad bounces, or a defensive TD, or special teams gift, and puts PITT behind, they are opening it up, and it will turn into a high scoring game. If PITT opens up a big lead, and UCF has to start gambling on offense, the potential exists for a defensive TD for PITT and more points. The last reason is what began this post, I just find it prudent to stay away from big public chalks, they tend to find a way not to cover. My eyes see more value in PITT OVER 28, so it is my play tonight:

PITT TEAM TOTAL OVER 28 (OLYMPIC) 5*

Wish they were all that easy!

Oooh yeah - very nice east

thanks! Nice when they go like that