Stock, you stole my thunder. I got some interesting trends that work in our favor as well, but i'll drop that in later after finishing up some work I have. gl bro and you thinking about dabbling into the money line?
IC
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
I vote for the bear, b/c 1 is for their defense, 2 is for their defense and the ram is struggling lately. Even though the bear QB suck, their defense n their special team make up for it.
My first thoughts on the game lean with the Bears. They've managed to get the job done, despite their shortcomings. Also, with a win, they pretty much lock up home field advantage. After they lock that up I'll stear clear of their games.
The Rams, well, what can you say? After going 4-1, they basically took a **** all over themselves and lost 5 of 6.
Well, not really. Their early games were close and they happened to come out on top. That's what a good team needs to do, win the close ones. But winning close ones against, Green Bay, Arizona, and Detroit hardly qualify. They even lost to San Fran when San Fran was playing like crap.
After that beginning, the Rams have lost two close games to Seattle and returned the favor and won a close one with San Fran. The other 4 games, well, they lost each by 2 touchdowns.
As I said, this is just a preliminary scan of the schedules. I'll look into it a little deeper tomorrow, but I am definitely leaning toward Chicago.
tough game I am leaning torwards the bears. If grossman struggles I think he will have lovie will pull him so we wouldnt have to suffer a whole game with grossman if he is bad. However I like the over in this game. Bears can clinch and they will have to put some points on the board to do it. Rams have struggled of late so they should at least put some points on the board still a lot of weapons on the rams side of the board and bulger doesnt throw many interceptions which the bears count on. Bears win a close one.
Here is my analysis on this game:
Rams +6 to stay alive for the Hunt (Also like Under - smaller play)
(congrats to the Saints + over backers yesterday)
The underdog in this game is 4-1 ATS.
The Rams are 5-0 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points at home.
The Bears are a horrible 2-8-2 when facing the spread against teams with losing records.
The Rams are 5-7 looking to get in the playoffs and have every incentive to play as the Panthers and Seahawks loss to give them some hope.
The Rams have Bulger, Bruce, Holt and Jackson still and are a top 10 offense.
The Bears have the #20th offense in the league.
Under:
The Bears still have the #2 best defense in the league and should keep this contest close and that Rams offense at bay while the Rams still have a top 10 offense as mentioned and should play very well. Besides the under prevails to the tune of 7-2 when the Rams are home underdogs and I feel that it comes through again tonight.
gl everyone.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
I am leaning toward the Rams tonight. Of course they need this win tonight, bad!!! but I don't have to explain that to anyone. I think IC did a great job of that. But I am thinking of not taking the points on this one. The money line is at +240 right now and I am sure it will go a little higher the closer it gets to game time. I took the money line last night on the Saints at +270, and the only regret I have is that I didn't bet bigger. I talked to everyone at work yesterday about how you can take the Saints straight up in Dallas and of course they said I was crazy.
Sometimes you just get that feeling and you go with it. I am getting that feeling again on this one. Please give me some feelings you guys are having. It helps when you have a good number of people agree with you. Of couse I would feel like crap if I throw down on the money line and the Bears win by a field goal. That is why they call it gambling though right.
Oh yea, I guess I could tell you how I did on NFL this week. I nailed all of my big plays on Pittsburgh,Cincy and the Saints. Came up short on the Jets,Kansas City and the under on the Indy game,I hate playing the under,I hate rooting for a team not to score but it seemed like a good bet at the time. This will be the play tonight to put me over 500 hundred for NFL. Go Rams!!!!!!
I believe your play will be on tonight. Rams at home getting 6.5 - 7 is a good bet. Bears have had offense trouble and with the Rams offense on any given day is ready to explode.
I'll take the Rams with the points at home.
Well, here are two more cents on the matter at hand. I think I am now swaying in the other direction toward the Rams, as opposed to my instincts from last night.
If the game is high scoring, I figure the Rams will win it outright as their passing attack is better than the Bears so I don't think the Bears will be able to keep up score wise. The Bears have a better rushing game I think and it'll be their job to keep things in check by controlling the clock. So I think a low scoring game tends to favor the Bears. The Bears have a decided edge defensively, so the Rams defense needs to be looking to force a couple of turnovers to make up the difference.
I am with a apearljamfan, I am an "over bettor" so if I feel an over is unlikely to occur, I do not bet the under. I just don't bet it. Or if I am being adventurous, I'll tease the over lower.
I am slowly convincing myself that the Rams have a better shot at this than I first indicated. And thanks to IC for providing a few insights that I didn't think about. I read another trend elsewhere that claimed the Bears were 5-22 ATS in December on the road. I tend to take such trends with a grain of salt as this must be over the course of 4-5 years and since teams turnover so many players every year it is a tough sell to convince me that these previous teams have too much of a bearing on tonights game. Of course, underdogs have a solid history of doing well on Monday Night Football. Something about being the focus of all football fans brings out the best in teams.
I think simply the Rams need this one more than the Bears do, so I think they at least keep it close. As I said before, high scoring will favor the Rams and if they can put 24-31 points on the board, I think they win it out right. I may make a small bet on the ML for them, and another small bet with the spread, but I am also considering a tease with the over.
FOR ANYONE LOOKING AT A TEASE ON THIS GAME:
I don't like the look of a 6 point tease on this game. The over is currently 41.5, so 6 points gets you 35.5. I'd be more comfortable if that mark were under the 5 TD mark. Also, a 6 point tease on the Rams gets you +12 which is a bull**** line since games rarely end with a 12 point spread. Because of the way football is scored spreads of 10, 11, and 13 are far more common than 12, so a 6 point tease will basically waste a point on you. So if you want to tease the over with the Rams, I recommend a 7 point tease to get the best of both lines.
I feel as though this is the perfect week for Lovie and Grossman to get back on track. The first thing I think will happen tonite is the BEARS WILL RUN THE BALL...the Bears fell into a horrible habit of believing in Grossman, now he is a QB that CAN do damage WHEN things are set up for him to do so, he WILL NOT go out and WIN the game for you...but has shown he will put you up against losing one or two. Rex was fine early in the season when the Bears RAN T.Jones early and often then hit the (can I say this) TE to open up the LONGBALL that was so surprisingly good early, then came this period of dropping back to pass on first and second, then force the run when they want BS they've been doing for 4-6 weeks. But with that said....just as everyone falls out of love with THE BEARS we'll see the ol' game plan come back into effect tonight. #1 they can ill afford to keep giving the Rams the ball on short drives- thus they will shorten the clock and field with ball control and great special teams. #2 the Rams have excellent weapons to throw to and hand off to but Bulger has been under more pressure then a tire on a loaded Semi-trailer, if he finds time to throw they will find success, but with Stephen Jackson (and I love this beast) hard pressed to find running room on the BEARS (injured-but still superior) front 7 it will be more of a chuck-n-duck offense then the greatest show on turf.
Bears by 10-14 pts. Rams are soft enough on D for the Bears offense to get tuned back in and find a little confidence, the Bears are or SHOULD recognize the fact that the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are coming fast and a slip in PRIME TIME to a lesser Rams team may shatter the confidence and edge they hold on ANY NFC team chasing. How fun is the NFL---JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT WAS EASY PICKINGS GETTING MORE THEN A TD ON MONDAY NIGHT@&#%@*#^%^@#%@* PUFFBAM!!!!! Lean BEARS and the UNDER!!!!
Good Luck to All Tonite>>>>>>YESTERDAY WAS FUN!!!!
Guys I tend to agree with Hawkeye, and was leaning Chi until the talk started on STL today. Thanks for bringing me back around Hawk. I agree that all the STL talk is valid, and they have a great MNF track record, but the long and short of it is does Lovie and that defense allow the offense to put thier season in doubt? I think back to basics are a good call with no weather issues, a soft D, and two amped teams (1) STL still with a playoff shot (2) Chi must get it worked out before the playoff stretch starts. As much as I tend to take under in Chi games, I have to go over at 40.5 and Chi -6.5 Sorry IC I got to go against you on this one going. Side note: with all of Chi offensive problems, a solid win here gives them home field and they will need if those offensive problems continue.
i say GOOOOOO BEARS!!!! being from chicago this pick is a little biased but the bears need to get back on track before the playoffs and this is the game to do it. they also would like to win this game to try and secure the nfc's top spot and get homefield advantage all through the playoffs. believe me if they win this game they basically clinch the conference, look for the bears to beat the every living snot out of st. louis. And if youre any kind of sports fan from chicago you know that any match up in any sport with st. louis is gonna be a good one
Fading the consensus picks from wagerline has been right most of the time. Both the general public and the "experts" are on the bears. Therefore, the Rams are the pick.
You bring up some very valid points and I thought about those so I didn't go huge on the Rams. It's going to be a tight ball game but one thing I do worry is that if Rex blows early, Griese can and will pick apart these Rams. However, I hope - laughingly - is that the Grossman does not suck so bad he gets the start in the second half - and finishes out the game for a tight ball game.
Apearl,
Once again sir, you have balls. lol. However, dabbling into the ML is not a bad idea b/c honestly I think the saints outright might have been more or an equal as gamble as this - as the spread would indicate the saints were even a bigger dawg to Dallas then the Rams are tonight to the Saints.
My Chicago Bears fan,
good luck sir - one thing is for sure, you have a helluva team.
Watch for this: The Bears have been giving up twice as many run yards now that lineman Harris has been gone, Rams will try to run the ball as well which will help the under for those who are on it.
gl everyone and i'll be sure to start appropriate threads for this upcoming weeks thread.
ic
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
I am far from being a professional capper, but a personal opinion along with a gut feeling is telling me go for the Bears in a blowout. As playoffs draw near, they have to prove their will. Usually when a good team, and the Bears are a good team, are backed into a corner like this they come out firing on all 8 cylinders. The defense is still tough, and now Grossman is playing for his job potentially as Lovie Smith has indicated that he will go with whomever is able to perform for his football team. I see this being a big wakeup call for Rex, and while I don't see a big performance by Grossman, I see more of a strong Bears running game combining with an error-free Grossman mixing in to put together a convincing win for the Bears tonight...
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