66% (55-28) Since July 23rd (1 POD a Day), Best Run in the Nation.
8 of 10 POD Winners
4-0 NFL Sunday Night
NFL 2007: 16-11-1
5 of 6 Winning NFL Weekends
5-0-1 Weekday Football Last 2 Weeks
2-0-1 Yesterday (3-1-2 this week)
4-0-1 or (5-0, explained below) Leans Yesterday
(Rutgers, Rutgers/South Florida Over, Utah, Utah/TCU Under, Red Sox)
Note
*I release plays as early as I can to clients so that they can get them as early as possible as it helps them get the best lines possible. One of my plays was the under 47 in the TCU/Utah game. Most clients got 47.5 if not higher for the under - the game finished at 47. Yet, I am taking a push rather than a win as some might have recieved 47 although the line close at 48.5 according to scoresandodds. The backend that we use on topten is automated. So, it gives the line that is most prevalent at that time. Sometimes the line gets better for my pick when I release it early, sometimes the line gets tighter. I trust my capping and release my plays early and despite the fact that many folks went 3-0, I go by what is locked in the top10 backend at the time when I make that play, so a 2-0-1 day for me despite the 1.5 difference in the closing line.
Capperslounge 1 Year: A note: (October Article)
It's been a year since Capperslounge has existed. I don't mention or talk about it much as I simply go straight to my research, make picks and work on trying to get more prize money for our contests with any remaining time. It's a lot of fun and the moderators here have a good time.
But, once in a while, every 3 months or so, it is important to mention the goals and reiterate the purpose of this site given that there are so many new members every month. The moderators take a great deal of time to keep a clean environment and to put as much quality betting information to help folks in wagering. As this site grows we will continue to make sure to provide you with even more features and contests. We have come a long way in 1 year. We will go even further in the next year to come. Why? Because we focus on content and provide a place of respect and a fun place to share information without any bashing. We will never forget this. It takes time, effort to do this and the moderators on here do great work.
There will be those who post nonsense as in all forums and we simply chuckle and delete their posts as these are message boards afterall and play very small and insignificant roles in the full scheme of most lives. We can choose to respond to some of these posts, but we have better things to do, such as what a sports forum should be about in helping people make money. But this site has grown from 0 to over 2500 members here for a reason. It is no accident that this site has grown at an incredible pace. It has grown because we talk sports and work very hard and focus on content. We want this site to be judged on the quality of its sports wagering content and not on the intensity of the hatred of bashing. This site is one of the few that is different for a reason, as keep in mind there are other good forums as well. Bashing is lame, childish, and doesn't make a damn penny. This is a sports wagering forum, and we refuse to allow it to be a circle-jerk bashing forum. To me, there is nothing more hilarious than people considering message boards are a way to influence the way people think. People come to their own conclusions and they respect diligent focused hard work.
I do have a service on this forum. I very rarely talk about it direclty as I typically post the latest runs and just go about the research. But, with so many new people, it is important to give a quick summary of what this forum is about. However, the research I post here is free as it has been for years as these are the notes I use to make my wagers. I hope that it helps anyone out there or it at least gives a bit more information for someone looking to wager on a game. Take it for what its worth. Regardless if people use the service or not, many find the content useful so I post it. In fact, I choose not to know who my clients are as I simply focus on what I've always done, research, picks and developing this site with my fellow moderators.
From my significants is where I take my plays from. I am proud of the service. I work hard, take pride in my work, and have fun. Clients in turn also enjoy the service, it's honesty and continue to resubscribe. Top10 keeps a close track of the records as I look at it as a mutual fund and hope it grows over the long haul. I started the service in August. Keep in mind I lost with free selections in July as it was a down month for me. I've had days as great as 5-0 and days as bad as 1-6. I typically promote the positive runs as most services, but the overall net gain or loss is tracked by top10 closely and I am confortable with that and so are clients. Paid service began in August. We are working on a graph format so you can see growth or the decrease each month. In short, Great August, subpar September and a successful October as we work on that graph model to put for anyone to see much like a mutual fund. Current clients can attest to these result percentages as they continue to return and resubscribe. They appreciate the honesty and the frankness. To lie about such posted records would be foolish as that would lose clients. Any investment return of 15% upon a principal investment through a CD or Mutual fund is great and the current pace is solid. That's the framework that I work in and clients that look at it as an investment, as I have always done, enjoy the results thus far.
I'm not right all the time by any means, but do have success given my spreadsheets, past experience and power rankings that I continue to develop and tweak over the years. And the possibility of doubling your bankroll over the course of a year is great. Each wager is a flat wager, 3% per wager and as mentioned I approach sports wagering with a mutual fund mindset and if I grow 15% a month (as 15% return in a yearly investment itself is great), I'm thrilled. I don't have locks and I can't grow your bankroll by a 100 dimes in a week as some cappers/serivces promise. My friend Brandon, for better or worse he is my friend as I have known him for the past few years, and I differ from this, and doing such dime plays can simply make you feel the wrath of the betting world and losing a 40 dime play on south florida by touting it as your biggest college football play of the year doesn't help either. But, hey, what can you say about him, he makes more money than any other service out there. Hit me up on pm and I'll give you some specifics on what his sales have averaged. But that's Brandon and the other cappers' deal that they choose to do these dime plays.
That's just not me nor is that realistic in my opinion. I love to cap and in the long run, enjoying showing profit and have had success showing profit. Look, I am very proud of this site. I am proud of its members. We have some of the best cappers on the net, I am proud of what this site stands for and the respect that is shown on this site. The moderators on this site are even tempered, but, if you antagonize or bash any member, regardless if you bash a senior poster to the newbie poster, there is little tolerance for you in our forum and more than likely, you will get banned by one of the moderators. In fact, before you even get some sort of infraction from a moderator, our forum members will step in and quickly put you in place as I've mentioned, we have some of the best members on the net. As the majority of bettors realize, bashing does not help another individual make money and most members could care less as it doesn't add a dime to their pocket and frankly, it's a useless circle-jerk.
We hope you enjoy the forum and this will be up for a few days for any of the new members and to reiterate this to existing members. This will then be reposted in a few months to remind the fourm for new and old members for what we strive for here. good luck the rest of this week and I can't wait for basketball.
Friday's Card: 3 Plays. College Football "CFB Tab".
(All-Sport 1 day package, or sold individually)
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Wish me Luck in the Hilton $1 Million NFL Handicapping Contest.
Top 1/3rd out of 340 People. Top 20 Place in the prize money and win at least 5k. Winner wins 250k. Standings Updated Wednesday Morning. 12 Weeks Remaining.
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Thursday's Analysis: 2-0-1
Rutgers/South Florida Over 52 (POD) (Win)
I gave a thorough down on my daily research and I use the backend here to just give a the meat and potatoes so to speak of the analysis.
Rutgers very well might win this game outright but I do not want to bet against South Florida and I believe the safer wager here is on the over. Did you know Rutgers at home has yet to play an under. The only under they played was on the road at Syracuse. Their game against Maryland went well over at 58 points (10 above the posted total), their total against Navy went well above 60 points as well and their total against Cincy should have gone over as well imo.
South Florida has played 2 overs on the road and it is not coincidence as to why as this team on the road gives up at least 24 points and I think Rutgers, given some reverse line movement and needing this game as this is the highest ranked team to come into Rutgers since Miami ages ago when they were ranked #1 - will be rocking. I look for a 31-24 type of ballgame, as this game goes over, Rutgers is likely to cover, but this game is likely to go over as both of South Florida's road games - Auburn and FAU also went over. Two good defensive teams in the country, but their splits do not indicate an under. The over is 4-0-1 when Rutgers plays a winning team and the over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 Rutgers home games.
Red Sox -121 (Win)
I trust Beckett more than Sabathia. Given their past history, Beckett has given up 3,4,4 hits to the Indians this year. Beckett has pitched no worse than a 3 ERA and has stepped up for this Red Sox team all year and frankly, I think he is the Cy Young winner of the AL this year. Sabathia is a good pitcher, but he is very much like Dice-K in that he will make his mistakes and the Red Sox have had plenty of success hitting off of CC. They need a punching bag, they need to survive in this series and CC will serve as that as their ace is on the mound, in the brink of elimination. Do the Red Sox eventually lose this series, imo yes. But, I don't believe it's tonight as they have the clear pitching edge and the hitting edge tonight as I think this game turns out to be similar to game 3 of this series except this time the Red Sox pull it out 5-3 or 5-2. Red Sox are 7-0 when Beckett is favored with this total meaning he shows up for pitcher's duels and Beckett is 5-0 as a road favorite of this margin. Beckett is also 6-1 over his last 7 starts.
TCU/Utah Under 47 (Push)
These are two decent defenses that do not get enough credit. TCU and Utah are both in the top 50 in defense with Utah in the top 50 and top 25 in points allowed. TCU is a top 40 defense and top 25 in in points allowed as well with allowing just 19 points a game. The public is likely to hit the over here given that Utah ran up the score on Louisville a bit but I think they are in for a small burial here given that the TCU defense at home is strong. Utah's passing game will be limited on the road as TCU is a much more disciplined team as both of these teams are being in the top 60. I think this game will turn out to be a 21-17 game as points will be tough to come by. Under is 4-1 in the Utes last 6 conference games and the stat that I am most fond of is that the under is 4-0 when the Horned Frogs are favored and their home games.
Tuesday's Analysis:
1-0-1
Indians +104 (Win)
Wakefield was horrible on the road coming into this game. He had lost his last 3 starts on the road which people do not realize. The only reason he had a quality start in his last game was the simple fact he faced a Twins team that doesn't have a great offense to begin with. Wake had a 14+ ERA in Baltimore on the road, 6 ERA against the Bluejays on the road and a 7 ERA against the Drays on the road.
The Indians are a very disciplined team when it comes to hitting and they have plenty of young guys that can play small ball, make contact and get on base and the I think it will be tough for a pitcher, who had trouble pitching as it is on the road, to now go into Jacobs field and look sharp against a team after not pitching against live action for roughly 3 weeks. The Indians are 12-0 in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning home record, meaning they are winning the big games in Jacobs field, Byrd is 8-3 when facing a team with a winning record and the Sox are 0-4 when Wake faces a team with a winning record as he struggles against the better teams of late. I have this game around 5-3 Indians.
Indians/Red Sox Under 10 (POD) (Push)
I had a lean on the Indians and the under yesterday and I'm going to go ahead and roll with both plays today. First the under. Manny Ramirez what many people do not know has a terrible average against Byrd well below the .200 mark as for some reason Byrd has his number. Both Ortiz and Manny were held relatively in check and I believe Boston will go back home with a 1-3 disadvantage where they will have some magic with Beckett and company, but tonight, Byrd is likely to have another solid game as he did for the Red Sox on the road at New York. Sure, he will give up his fair share of hits, but he will manage to get out of jams as he always does and he is a great ground ball pitcher as well. If the Red Sox had trouble with Westbrook yesterday, Byrd is just as competent and he gave up just 1 run to this team on the road at Boston his last time out. Wakefield pitched a simulated game and he will go his strong 5 innings but will give up runs as Dice-K did yesterday and
I suspect that the Indians, much like yesterday will win this game in a 5-3 type of fashion. Byrd pitches in a lot more unders than people realize as well. The Under is 6-1-1 for the Red Sox following a loss, the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games at Jacobs field between these 2 teams and the under is 4-1 in Wakefield's last 5 starts against the Indians. I have this game around 5-3 Indians.
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NCAA
Louisville vs. Uconn
There is quite a bit to write about this game. I have been right about Louisville many times. Their under in their NC Game was one. Fading them when they played Utah was another and hitting overs when they are at home is another example. However, last week when they played at Cincy, they showed a ton of heart and improvement and I was wrong about them getting blown out. However, a team that I have not been wrong about is Conn. Personally, I think the public is in for a trap here today as Conn continues to go underneath the radar, for a team that's sole loss comes to a top 25 team on the road and by a point or two at that. Conn, has been solid all year long. I have been high on this team and they were my only cover last week on Saturday so I have my loyalties to them. I actually have Uconn as a top 40 team in my spreadshseet and Louisville moved up from a top 90 team to a top 75 team now. Louisville did beat a top 30 team on the road but I am not sure if they have back to back road wins over two top 35 teams within themselves. Why is Conn good? They have a defense that has yielded 14, 17, 14, 10 and 17 points to Virginia on the road. A defense that goes very unspoken of and a defense that is ranked 5th in the nation, 8th in passing yards, and top 5 in the nation in points allowed. Louisville is 3rd in the nation in offense but yet simply a top 100 defense. So, the question really becomes, does Louisville's defense step up this game as that seems to be the question in all the games Louisville is involved in. I believe this game has a tendency to towards Uconn with the edge to their defense, it is weekday football so the dog always get the edge as it is in my book - keep in mind that I took all dogs last week during the weekday and they all covered it not won outright with Navy, Wake and San Jose State. I think this game goes Uconn and the under likely.
Northwestern vs. Eastern Michigan
What a crappy game this is. Why? I would love 10 points for a home team and with such a huge percentage of the public on a team such as Northwestern tonight, the dog would be the enticing play. However, this is Eastern Michigan, a team that is ranked that is ranked in the top 105 in my book, and considering there are only a few teams worse in College Football, then Eastern Michigan, it is tough to take them. However, Syracuse was a top 105 team when they went on the road to man-handle Louisville, so anything is possible I guess. Give Northwestern some credit for that great come back they had against the Gophers which was a great game. Northwestern beat Michigan State a top 60 team on the road by a touchdown and were actually winning that game by much more which shows that they could be turning it around. What else would you expect from a team that got embarrassed 7-58 by Ohio State. By the way, as a SEC fan, I would love to see a 1 loss SEC team face Ohio State in the national championship as I strongly believe that the Big 10 has trouble handling speed, hence, why Zuk is so successfull with Illinois this year because the Big 10 has not caught up in how to defend speed. This is exactly why Oregon and App State (who recruits speed) had such great success against the Big 10. Bottom line: The Big 10 has trouble against teams that have speed and in the SEC not only is it about smash mouth football, but the speed that you contend with on a weekly basis, in essence, it is a land mine and not even Vandy - who is the weakest link in the SEC this year, is a cupcake. There are no cupcake teams in the SEC folks. South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn Vandy, Miss State (beat Auburn), Ole Miss (nearly beat Florida at home) and the list goes on. Hence, why points in the SEC are great. Went off on a bit of a tangent there. Back to this game. Outside of the Ohio State game which this team had some injuries in that game too I believe, they have played well and been in all the games. What is interesting is that has not "put away" teams well this year at all. Their biggest win was that touchdown win over Michigan State, and when the line was opened, you would have thought it was a candy store that opened to children and Northwestern was pounded heavy and now sits at -10. The one game that worries me about Eastern Michigan is that they lost to Ball State, a top 70 team at home (Northwestern is also a top 70 team btw) by a score of 16-38 (total 54). However, that was the 2nd game of the season. Since then, they did lose to Michigan on the road 22-33, however, we know how fickle Michigan can be. However, I do think Ohio
State runs into hell when they play Michigan this year as there is nothing more than beat Ohio State would make this team's year. Welcome to back to the top 25 as well Michigan. It's only fitting that Carr finishes out his term at Michigan in the top 25 if he is to step down after this year. Eastern Michigan what some people forget in that Ohio game was that they were down 0-21 and fought back in that game to lose by 6 points. Last year there was less than 25 points scored total in this game, but you have a top 30 offense and top 90 defense in Northwestern facing a top 115 offense and top 80 defense. Keep in mind that Eastern Michigan's quarterback has been downgraded for this game and is likely to miss, but nevertheless, a lean on the under and Eastern Michigan and the under here as this Eastern Michigan team has to have a big defensive game today to help their young QB and they are finally at home, just the second home game of the season after Howard so their intensity level is likely to be higher for this game, not to mention being on national television.
NCAAB
My favorite time of the year and sport is almost here in NCAAB and the NBA. I love Hoops. Either it be WNBA, College or the NBA. Throughout this week, I'll provide my notes on each of the upcoming teams and conferences this year.
Linear Mode
