This weeks Monday Night extravaganza pits a couple of interesting teams against one another. The Tennessee Titans have gotten off to a better start than mist would have figured at this point in the season, while the Broncos are suffering through one of their worst seasons in quite some time. However, the Broncos snapped a two game losing streak last week against Kansas City, while the Titans dropped their first game since the middle of October when they lost at Tampa Bay. Tennessee will look to pull itself off the mat this evening after suffering what was a brutal loss to Jacksonville in their own house last Sunday. The defense really let them down in that spot against the one-dimensional Jags and surrendered 166 yards on the ground that allowed Jacksonville to run away with the game in the first half. That effort was highly attributed to the fact that monster DT Albert Haynesworth was absent due to a hamstring injury, and the Titz run “D” suffered because of it. He is slated to go, but one can only wonder how close to 100% he’ll be. With Denver rookie RB Selvin Young exploding last week, look for HC Shanahan to look to his ground attack early and often to open things up for QB Cutler. The ‘Over’ has cashed in four of Denver’s five home games this season, and the Titans inexplicably allowed Houston to explode in the 4th quarter for 29-points in their last road game. I truly feel Tennessee’s defense has over-achieved mightily to this point in the season, and is on the cusp of seeing their numbers inflate over the next month of play having to go up against four above average offenses. Denver picked up some much needed self confidence on both sides of the ball last week, and I look for that to carry over in this spot. With both clubs suffering from a multitude of injuries, look for a number of mistakes to be made for both teams allowing each to pick up some really cheap scores. Tennessee will go all out in this spot looking to bounce back from their loss to Jacksonville last week, while Denver will do the same looking to even up their record at 5-5. Finally, a game not of the snoozer variety on a Monday night!!! Hit the ‘Over’ big as both clubs demolish this short number en route to one of the more entertaining Monday Night match-ups this season.
Vince Young getting points is an automatic play. Denver has covered just three of its last 11 games and we're getting the better team with the points in this one. Tennessee wins outright.
Free Pick - Titans/Broncos OVER - (For analysis see Daily video)
TITANS
This is one of the road teams in the NFL right now and one of the best underdog plays as well.
Tennessee is 3-1 on the road this year and 3-0-1 ATS.
They beat the Jags in week one 13-10 as a 7 point dog. They beat the Saints 31-14 on Monday night as a 4 1/2 point dog.
They lost to Tampa 13-10 as a 3 point dog but went to Houston as a 2 point dog and won 38-36.
This team is 9-1-1 ATS last 11 on the road and 14-2 last 16 as an underdog last 16 on the vegas board.
You add the fact the Broncos are 2-12 ATS last 14 home games and you can see how the Titans are without question the right side of this game.
Tennesse has the #4 ranked rush offense in the NFL facing the 2nd worst run defense in the Broncos.
I always say if you are an underdog and you are going to win on the road in the NFL, you have to have the ability to run the football.
That is exactly what the Titans can do here and will do here and that will be the difference in this game.
And the fact the #2 total defense in the NFL facing an offense that has struggled all year to find it's rthymn.
Titans are the play here as they go on the road and win again.
WESTERN MICHIGAN
My sleeper to make the NCAA tourney.
I had them over Loyola/Chicago on Friday and I come right back with them here.
They are 2-2 SU and ATS but what was impressive about them so far is they have played all 4 games on the road.
One of those was a battle with Oregon as a 16 point dog. Down 16 at the half they battled back to a 6 point game with 2 minutes to go before running out of gas losing 97-88.
This team is experienced with 4 starters back including the best big man in the MAC in Reitz.
Western will lock down Goode of Detroit and Mercy has no answer for Reitz inside, just as Loyola didn't.
Western wins and covers this one as well.
UTAH
Ok, bottom line is this is just a bad Nets team right now. Simple as that.
After starting the season 4-1 they have lost 4 in a row including the last 3 in very bad fashion.
At Boston held to 69 points in a 91-69 loss followed by the beating at home by Orlando 95-70 followed by another 4 point home loss to the Heat 91-87.
Now they start their west coast road trip here in Utah against a Jazz team that has won 4 in a row by an average of 18.3 points since that home opening loss to the Rockets.
I always said no Vince Carter and no New Jersey Nets and Utah is not the place you are going to find your rthymn.
I am laying this number with the Jazz in another double digit home blowout.
It's Monday Night Football and getting late in the year. Both clubs need the game and will open up the playbook. If the young QB's make mistakes that lead to defensive scores then that's almost a sure recipe for an over with the total posted in the high 30's. TENNESSEE is 13-5 OVER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 72-46 OVER as a home favorite since 1992 and 35-13 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992
Two of the league's best young teams collide on Monday with the home side enjoying a huge scheduling advantage. Orlando is coming off a very physically and mentally exhausting win over Boston (Celtics 1st loss TY), while New Orleans had Sunday off following the team's 5th consecutive win over Minnesota (100-82) on Saturday. The Magic have been playing out of their minds this season away from home (6-0 ATS), but expecting a young team to continue such a pace is foolish. Meanwhile, with the exception of a loss to San Antonio, the Hornets have been GREAT at home winning their other three contests at the New Orleans Arena by an average of 17.6 PPG, easily covering the number each time. Other than the loss to the Spurs, New Orleans' only loss came in the second of back-to-back road games (third in four nights), 93-90, in Portland. Earlier in the year, Orlando ran off four consecutive wins and covers and then lost its next (106-96 at home to Phoenix), playing without rest. Lightning strikes twice. Good luck - Lenny Del Genio
New Jersey is in a tailspin right now, losing five straight since Vince Carter went down with an ankle injury on Nov. 10. The Nets lost to the Heat in New Jersey Saturday, 91-87, and turned the ball over 27 times - the highest for the Nets since 2004. Utah is glad to be home after losing its last two on the road. The Jazz are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Utah has won four straight at home and crushed Sacramento 117-93 as a 13 1/2-point favorite last time out in front of the home fans. The Jazz average 113.2 points a game at home as compared to 107.1 overall. And on the other side, the Nets just can't score points on the highway, averaging just 81 points and 37.5 percent shooting from the floor on the road. This is the first of four West Coast games for the Nets and things aren't going to start well for this team without Vince Carter. They just can't score enough points to hang with the Jazz in this one. It's a bit 20-point win for Utah in this one.
It has been a great run on the SGH with your comp plays, as we stand at 10-3 the last 13 days with our freebies! Tonight in the NBA it is all about the road and a play against the trying-hard Blazers. Portland embarked on their 4-game road trip having won 4 in a row, unfortunately the road hasn't been as kind, as the young Blazers have dropped their first 3 both straight up and against the spread on this 4-game swing, and are now 0 for 6 on the road straight up this year. We don't see things changing tonight, as Charlotte is believing in themselves right now, and they have wins in 3 of their last 5 straight up, and covers in 4 of their last 5 to prove it. Portland did sweep both meetings last year both straight up and against the spread, but we expect that to change tonight, as we are riding the confident Bobcats to get things done on their home floor in this middle game of a 3 game home stand. Play on the Bobcats.
Game: Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals Game Time: 11/19/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Washington Capitals Reason: I'm laying the price with WASHINGTON. Tonight's over/under line is listed at 5.5. That's worth mentioning as we find the Panthers at a dismal 51-86 (-35.2) the last 137 times (1-10 L11!) they played a road game with an over/under line of 5.5. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Capitals have gone a profitable 82-59 when playing a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. The Capitals won 1-0 the last times that these teams faced each other here. Look for home ice to prove the difference once again as the Capitals avenge a 2-1 loss suffered at Florida a few nights ago. *Southeast Division GOM
Game: San Diego State vs. San Diego Game Time: 11/19/2007 10:00:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO. This is a huge game in the San Diego college basketball scene. As Aztecs' senior guard Matt Thomas told the North County Times: "It's the championship of San Diego...It's a big game for both teams...." The Aztecs boast another athletic team and are off to an undefeated start. However, their window for a potential national breakthrough may have been slammed shut with the departures of Brandon Heath and Mohamed Abukar and the dismissal of Jerome Habel. Note that Heath, Abukar and Habel accounted for 61 percent of the points last season. Junior point guard Richie Williams and junior forward Lorrenzo Wade were two of the players expected to help to pick up the slack. However, while Wade has been decent, Williams has only played 18 minutes thus far (went 0 for 5) and is expected to miss tonight's game. Lately, regardless of how strong the Aztecs are, this rivalry has produced extremely close games. In fact, five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Last year, the Toreros traveled to Cox Arena as +15.5 point underdogs and lost by only three points. This year, they bring back almost all the same players and get to play on their home floor. That's significant as we find the Toreros at a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five series meetings here, winning outright 90-80, as +4 underdogs, most recently. In fact, the Toreros won four of those five games outright and lost the other by only three points. This year the Toreros have a new coach, Bill Grier, who brings over a winning attitude from 16 years as an assistant at Gonzaga. Although they came up short vs. UNLV, the Toreros are both talented and experienced. Look for them to continue their strong play in this rivalry, improving to 12-5 ATS the last 17 times they were underdogs of six points or less. *Annihilator
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos Game Time: 11/19/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Tennessee and Denver to finish UNDER the number. Both teams saw their most recent game slip above the posted total. That has helped caused tonight's over/under line to remain above the key number of 37, which I feel gives us excellent value on the UNDER. While last week's game finished above the total, the Titans have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 7-2 for the season with five of those games finishing at 33 combined points or less. While the Broncos last road game finished with 38 points, their most recent home game (vs. Green Bay) finished with only 32. That game was also on a Monday Night, which brought the UNDER to 3-0 in their last three Monday Night contests. Its also worth noting that the Broncos, who held the Chiefs to only 11 points last week, have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were coming off a win over a divsion rival. Both teams will be looking to establish the run. I expect both run defenses to also play well though. The Broncos held the Chiefs to just 67 rushing yards last week, stacking the line with eight and nine man fronts. They're likely to employ a similar strategy vs. a Titans offense which ranks last in the AFC in total passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Titans' defense has stopped opponents for no gain or hit them for a loss more than 43% of the time and their first-down defense yields an average of just 4.26 yards, the second-best mark in the league. Both teams are expecting to have key defensive players back in the lineup tonight and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair that falls below the number. *Main Event
Game: New Jersey Nets vs. Utah Jazz Game Time: 11/19/2007 9:05:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. The Nets have fallen upon hard times lately. However, they're still a talented team and I expect a visit to Utah to be just what the doctor ordered for their recent pointspread woes. In fact, the Nets scored the outright win the last time they played here which brought them to 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven meetings in this series. The Jazz, 4-8-1 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range the past two years, didn't play well on their recent road trip and are now playing their first game back home, often a difficult spot. Despite coming up short at Boston in their last road game, the Nets remain a healthy 11-6-1 ATS their last 18 road games. The 89.5 points they are allowing on the road so far this season ranks third best in the league, while their overall defense ranks seventh. Look for the Nets to continue their strong play in this series as they give the Jazz all they can handle, covering the generous number.
Take the Titans tonight over the Broncos at Mile High.
There’s something to be said about a team that has had problems stopping the run all season going against a team that has a run-first mentality. Denver has no way to mask any weaknesses against the run tonight. They are going to have to sell out all game long if they want to keep the Titans from running up and down the field on them.
It all starts with Vince Young at quarterback. If he is able to roll out or break contain against Denver it’s going to be a long night for the Broncos. Young’s stats aren’t pretty, but he somehow finds a way to win games. He’s basically a modern-day Bobby Layne.
Denver has injury issues with wide receiver Javon Walker out and running back Travis Henry questionable. I can’t trust Jay Cutler to carry this team yet. He’s going to have to make plays downfield to win this game and I just don’t see him coming through yet.
Tennessee is 8-3 ATS against AFC competition, while Denver is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games overall and 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Broncos are also just 2-10 ATS against AFC foes.
Take the Titans as they get it done in Denver tonight.
LSU
Lay the small number with Lsu today over Oklahoma State in the **** Invitational.
I can’t trust the Cowboys here in this spot. Head coach Sean Sutton is feeling the heat already even though this is only his second season. He has seven newcomers this year and they are going to need time to gel.
Doing so against an opponent like Lsu isn’t the best-case scenario for them.
The Tigers have excellent backcourt defenders which is going to make it difficult for Oklahoma State to get many open outside looks. Since the Cowboys don’t have a dominant presence in the paint, their offense will struggle today.
Lay the small number as Lsu grabs the win and cover.
UCLA
Lay the points with Ucla over Maryland in the semifinal round of the O’Reilly Auto Parts CBB Experience.
I’m not about to side with a Maryland team that had problems getting past Northeastern last Thursday. They had to go to overtime before squeaking by, 74-72.
They are simply not ready to stay close with a Ucla team that is solid in all phases of the game.
The Bruins are the No. 2 ranked team in the nation for good reason. They have a head coach in Ben Howland who excels in getting his team to play shut-down defense.
Ucla also has a newcomer in power forward Kevin Love who has the capability of putting up a double-double every game. He is the Bruins best prospect in years.
Even though point guard Darren Collison is out with an injury, the Bruins have several other players who can step up in his absence. They will shut down the Maryland offense like they do every other opponent and grind it out on the offensive end, eventually pulling away in the second half.
Lay the points as Ucla wins and covers this one with ease
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Tourney Mismatch Game of the Week! (15-2, 88%!)
My Tourney Mismatch of the Week is a play on UCLA, minus points over Maryland. Terps coach Gary Williams is dealing with a lot of new faces to start the season. One of the problems created by an influx of youth is the propensity for a high number of turnovers. Maryland was taken to overtime in their last game by Northeastern, a team I have pegged for eighth in the CAA. Maryland finished the game with a 14-to-23, assist-to-turnover ratio. They also struggled on the boards, allowing the Huskies to pound the glass for 15 offensive rebounds. Those aren't exactly confidence-building numbers when lining up against UCLA, the team I believe is the best in the nation. Look for the Bruins to handle Maryland's youth, forcing several turnovers, leading to easy baskets. I believe UCLA will pull away and win this one by 20. The Bruins are my Tourney Mismatch of the Week. Thanks! GL! Scott.
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