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Re: Nfl Trends For 10/22 - 10/23
Week 7 NFL
Chargers (4-1) @ Chiefs (2-3)-San Diego lost eight of last nine visits to Arrowhead, winning 34-31 two years ago, but this Charger team is rolling behind first-year starting QB Rivers. Since going 2-13 on third down in 16-13 loss at Ravens, Bolts are 21-31 on third down- they're 3rd in NFL, winning 58.6% of all third down plays and are 2-1 on road. Chiefs are 0-3 if they score less than 23 pts; they've been minus in turnovers in four of their five games. SD defense forcing 3/outs on 45.3% of drives, top % in NFL. Huard still filling in for injured QB Green; they have total of 77 rushing yards in last two games.
Jaguars (3-2) @ Texans (1-4)- Houston fans can't be real happy, with Vince Young, Reggie Bush both contributing to their new teams, while Texans are last in NFL in 3rd down defense (53.5%), last in black zone defense (allowed five TD drives of 80+ yards, 2.93 ppp), and have allowed 17 TDs, while forcing just 9 3/outs and three turnovers. Jags are 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; they split their four visits to Houston, winning by 3,18 points. Texans scored 12.7 ppg in last three games, scoring four TDs on 27 drives; they don't have takeaway in last two games (-5 TO's) and have been outscored 47-19 in second half of last four games.
Patriots (4-1) @ Bills (2-4)-First rematch of season; Patriots snuck by Buffalo 19-17 at home in Week 1, coming back from 17-7 halftime deficit and surviving -2 turnover ratio. Pats outrushed Bills 183-99 in beating Buffalo for sixth straight time and 11th in last 12 meetings. Bills rank 30th in 3rd down conversions (27.8%), as Losman not making plays to move chains, which is part of why Buffalo hasn't had edge in field position since Week 2 win at Miami. Patriots are 2-0 on road, beating Jets, Bengals; in their last two games, they started six drives in enemy territory, scoring 38 of the 58 points they got in those two wins.
Steelers (2-3) @ Falcons (3-2)- In their last four games, Atlanta scored 14-3-32-14 points, as poor play in red zone (2.65 ppp, last in NFL) highlighted by Vick's inaccurate pocket passing (39-80 last three games). Falcons ran ball for 223+ yards in four of five games, but Steelers allowing 78.4 rushing yds/game. Pittsburgh is 11-1-1 vs Atlanta; last meeting was wild 34-all tie at Heinz in '02- this is first time Steelers visited Atlanta in 13 years (5-1 there). Four of five Atlanta games stayed under total, partly because they have only seven TDs on 52 drives, while trying sixteen FGs.
Packers (1-4) @ Dolphins (1-5)-Green Bay won Super Bowl II in Miami, but have never beaten Dolphins in Miami (0-6, last visit '00), as home side won five of last six series games. Pack off its bye; they're -5 in turnovers (29th), -27 in IPs (T29th), and are scoring just 3.79 pts/red zone drive (also 29th), so rookie-laden OL struggling and defense has allowed 27.4 ppg- they've yet to hold opponent under 7.0 yds/pass. Harrington 0-2 as Miami QB, but he threw for 199 yards in 4th quarter comeback try that fell short in Swamp last week. Four of last five Miami games stayed under, with 22-23 pts scored in two home games this season.
Eagles (4-2) @ Buccaneers (1-4)-- Philly 2-1 on road after tough loss at Saints, when NO held ball for last 8:26 of game, before kicking winning FG. Eagles scoring 29.8 ppg, lot of firepower for young Bucs (rookie QB, three rookies on OL) to match. Philly has scored 3+ offensive TDs in all six games- they're 4-0 if they allow less than 27 pts, a number Bucs can only dream about. Tampa got first win last week, thanks to replay review and horrible roughing passer call; Gradkowski has been OK in two games at QB (45-76/393, one INT) and Tampa has run ball better since their bye (43.4 before, 156.5 since). Last three Buc games were decided by total of six points.
Lions (1-5) @ Jets (3-3)-Gang Green 3-0 if they allow 20 or less points; they gave up 24-31-41 in its losses. Jets allowed 157.2 rushing yds/game over last five weeks, so Detroit offense that ran ball for 132 yards in first win last week (had been averaging 58.6 rushing yds/game) should move chains here, but Martz' offense 29th in NFL on third down (28.2%), 29th in giveaways (13). Lions are 0-3 on road, allowing 33.7 ppg, with losses by 27-7-9 pts. Lions won four of last five series games, winning last two at this site. All six Jet games this season have gone over the total, as have four of last five Lion games.
Panthers (4-2) @ Bengals (3-2)- Cincinnati scored 28.3 ppg in winning first three games, but scored 13 pts in each of last two, both losses; with bye in middle, its been almost month since they've won. If you take away 13 drives they forced turnovers on, Bengals allowing TDs on 27.9% of remaining drives, a high number. Palmer has converted on just five of last 25 third down plays. Carolina won four games in row since Smith got back in lineup; they averaged 3.5/4.7 yds/pass with #89 out of lineup, but have been 6.4/5.2/5.6/8.9 with him back. Carolina last in NFL on third down (24.3%). This is Panthers' first visit to Queen City.
Broncos (4-1) @ Browns (1-4)-Broncos' first trip to Lake Erie since '93; if old Browns could have beaten Denver in playoffs, they would have played in Super Bowl or two and likely never would have bolted for Baltimore. Anyway, Denver defense has allowed one TD on 50 drives, an amazing figure, but has also forced just 11 3/outs (30th) so teams moving ball on Denver, just not scoring. All five Denver games stayed under total, since 4-1 Broncos scoring just 12.4 ppg. Cleveland is 0-2 at home, scoring 14 pts in pair of close losses; they've gone 3/out on 41.7% of drives (30th)- their -8 turnover ratio ranks 31st in NFL (six takeaways, 14 turnovers).
Redskins (2-4) @ Colts (5-0)-Unbeaten Indy off bye; they have one win by more than seven points (43-24 vs Houston) but their offense is still sharp, scoring TDs on 31.9% of drives (1st), while going 3/out on just 6-47 drives (12.8%, 1st). Colts may sign WR Proehl to replace injured Stokely, one of Manning's favorite 3rd down WRs. Redskins have no takeaways in last two games; they're 0-2 on artificial turf this season, scoring zero TDs on 19 drives in those two games. Washington scored 31,36 pts in their wins, an average of 12.8 ppg in losses. Last six series totals were all 45+; three of last four Redskin games went over the total.
Vikings (3-2) @ Seahawks (4-1)- Viking G Hutchinson returns to face former mates with Minnesota squad whose losses are by 3,5 points. Minnesota coach Childress came from Philly- Eagles are one of NFL's best after a bye, so we'll see if he learned anything from Reid on that front. Seattle's comeback last week keeps them atop NFC West, but they have to be alarmed to be outscored 41-13 in first half of their last two games, and have Rams almost beat them when Hawks won turnover battle, but they are 2-0 at home, beating Falcons (21-10), Giants (42-30). Surprising that Seattle has worst red zone defense in NFL (5.91 ppp).
Arizona (1-5) @ Oakland (0-5)- Matt Leinart can kiss Coliseum turf when he looks across field and sees the team that passed on him. Then again, he's a Cardinal. Redbirds are road favorite, six days after losing game they led 23-3 with 15:05 left, without other team's offense scoring a point; they also fired their offensive coordinator Tuesday. The chaos almost makes them as horrible as the Raiders, who tried hard in nationally-televised loss to the Broncos last week, but still lost by 10. Hard to say anything good about either side here, other than Cardinal defense is OK (13 takeaways). Oakland has had 55 drives this year, scoring four TDs, trying six FGs and going 3/out 27 freakin' times.
Giants (3-2) @ Cowboys (3-2)- Big Blue 8-4 in last 12 games vs Cowboys, 3-3 vs Parcells, with two of Tuna's three wins in OT. Giants played two sound games since bye; neither Redskins or Falcons snapped ball in Giant red zone. Since allowing 35 first half points in Seattle, Giants have outscored foes 73-24 in 10 quarters. Dallas allowed 24,38 pts in their losses, 10-14-6 in the wins. Giants scored 30-30-27 pts in their three road games. Media loves to kill Bledsoe, but Dallas offense ranks 3rd on third down (42.7%), 4th in red zone (5.37), T2nd in TDs (16); only Eagles (21) have scored more TDs. Giants split their last six visits to this site. Not sure what effect Barber's bizarre declaration that he might be retiring will have on the team.
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