Monday, January 7th
*National Championship Game
*Denver vs. Phoenix
*San Antonio vs. Golden State
*Some College Basketball Notes
Research won't be up till' later today.
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6-1 College Football Bowl Run.
17-10 Since Saturday
Winning 6 of 9 Days.
Last Weekend 9-3 Last 2 Weekends.
Basketball 2007: 76-51 (59%)
45-24 (64%) NBA Run &
NBA 2007: 58-36 (61%)
8 of 12 POD Winners. (75%)
60% since June 23rd - 1 POD per Day.
Best POD Run in the Nation.
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Purchasing Plays: IndianCowboy - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper IndianCowboy - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper IndianCowboy.
Summary of how the Paid plays work:
I rarely talk about the paid plays, but I want to make sure there is clarity on how they work. I have typically 3 plays a day. One of them is the POD each day. 1 of them is a secondary play. My third favorite, which is still a premium play, is typically but not always the comp play. Each one will be sold separately on the Weekdays - Monday through Friday. On the Weekends, there is a 1 Day All Sports Package (Available until Noon). Of course, clients who are Monthly, Seasonal or long-term will get all selections for that one Rate. To Purchase Plays Click Here. All Plays are Guaranteed. IndianCowboy - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper IndianCowboy - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper IndianCowboy.
Once Football is over, I am going to Research Basketball and in particular College Basketball, very, very heavily and have detailed research up here. This is my favorite part of the season so I'm looking forward to using the power rankings for even more continued in the NBA and especially College Basketball
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Yesterday's Analysis: 2-1
Wizards -8 (POD)
These games start shortly so I will keep the write-ups fairly to the point. Chris Wilcox is out for the Sonics and although they played very well against the Phoenix Suns without him, it is tough to replace a double-double scorer. The Sonics won't feel his lack of impact until they face a team like the Wizards that will bruise you down low with Jamison and Haywood whereas the Suns will just run and gun all day. The Wizards recently blew out the Miami Heat at home and this game will be very similar as I nearly took the under on this game as the Wizards are much more of a defensive team than many people give them credit for. I will be on the Wizards for quite a few games now as the return of Antonio Daniels is huge for this team as they recently come off a 20+ point blowout of the Bucks on the road, and with Daniels, Butler and Jamison, this team should beat a young Seattle team without their inside presence today. The Wizards are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 as favorites and 9-2 in their last 11 as home favorites.
Xavier -9.5 (Winner)
The bottom line in some of Auburn's key players are out including Barber, their leading scorer. Could Auburn still cover - sure. However, Barber is their leading scorer and Xavier has looked dominant at home. Xavier has not won a road game all year as well as they lost to Arizona State by a score of 55-77 and that game was flat out ugly. Since that loss, they have turned it up a notch blowing out several teams at home. Auburn folks, is not a basketball school. They do have a 9-2 record, but there is a reason for that - this team has played no one. Their biggest win is over a top 240 Towson team at home. Just to give you an example of Xavier's potential to score, they dropped over a 100 points on Kansas State and Virginia, two teams in the top 100 in power rankings. Auburn, who already had the difficulty of scoring now will be without Barber and will find it tough to score. Sure, they can backdoor here, but I will take my chances with Xavier finally stepping up on the road against an Auburn team that is missing some key players.
Giants/Bucs Over 40 (NFL) (Loss)
This game could get a little dicy, but I'll take my chances. I have the Giants as a top 10 power ranking team and in fact, the 3rd best road team in the NFL at 7-1. That is flat out amazing considering they have been horrible at home and Eli is questionable as it is - but he plays better on the road for some reason. Both defenses are stout, but I have a feeling that the Bucs getting roughly 50 points scored on them the last 2 games - despite resting some starters, will play a role. I expect the Bucs defense to have a little rust as the Giants will look to run the ball affectively and with Toomer and Burress, this team can pass the ball effectively as well. The bottom line here is I think they will be an active underdog and this game tips over in the end. I have both teams getting at least 20 points and wouldn't be surprised if a flurry of points come in the 4th quarter to push it over. I wouldn't be surprised of overtime either to help the cause along. The Bucs have played the over in the last 5 ballgames and I'm not sure if Eli wins this game, but at least steps up in the playoffs for 20 points - as will Garcia.
Monday's Research
Ohio State vs. LSU
I think this is a game that Ohio State can win outright. As per my power rankings, I have Ohio State as a top 5 team and LSU as a top 10 team after their 2 losses. From a numbers standpoint, this is where they sit: Ohio State gets a lot of credit for winning on the road at Michigan and Penn State fairly decisively, however, they have not played a top 10 team all year. LSU lost to a top 30 and top 35 team in Arkansas and Kentucky, and frankly, I feel should have lost to Florida and Auburn at home, but they were very fortunate. The Buckeyes are likely tired of hearing about "speed" constantly and they will show up for this game in a big way in my opinion and the Buckeyes defense is solid. LSU folks is good, but they do struggle against better defenses, as they did against Florida and LSU for most of the ballgame. I am an SEC fan, but I think that this is a good situation for Ohio State to shock quite a few people today as more people should be giving them a look than they are. Ohio State is top 60 in the nation on offense, top 20 in rushing and top 90 in passing yards. Ohio State on defense is rock solid, they are the #1 team in the land on defense, #1 in pass defense, #3 in rush defense and #1 in points allowed. LSU is top 25 in the nation in overall offense, top in 60 in passing and top 15 in rushing . I feel that both teams are likely to establish the run very much and look for the clock to grind a good portion of this game. On defense, LSU is 3rd overall and 9th and 10th in pass and rush defense. I wouldn't be surprised if this game went towards Ohio State as an outright victory but LSU seems to have magic in the regulation as they are still, as their coaches like to state, undefeated in regulation in this Football season.
NBA Research
Spurs vs. Warriors
I have the Spurs as a top 5 power ranking team on the road against Golden State who is a top 10 power ranking team as since the return of Stephen Jackson, this team has been rock solid. These 2 teams have already met this year and Golden State won 96-84 at home, but don't forget, that was also because San Antonio played without Tim Duncan in that game. For this game, they look to have all 3 of their studs back. However, some reports do have Duncan listed as questionable, so we will see what pans out. If Duncan does not play, I would undoubtedly lean under, as I think there is a ridiculous stat out there that states that when Duncan or Parker are out of the ballgame, the Spurs have hit the under in each time this past year or 2 if I'm not mistaken. Golden State comes off back to back frustrating losses so they will be looking to get back on track today, but San Antonio will also be looking for revenge at the same token from an earlier season loss. I look for this game to likely go under regardless if Duncan plays or not.
Nuggets vs. Suns
I might as well get to college basketball, as frankly, I don't trust either of these teams. I don't trust Phoenix at home and Denver has showed a lot of guts lately winning on the road as they start of rough but pull it together late. What might surprise you is the record of both of these teams at 21-12 and 23-10 - especially Denver playing so well of late. Denver has won 6 of their last 7 including on the road at Golden State which deserves respect and although I lean Denver, Phoenix comes off a loss. The last time Phoenix came off a loss at Dallas, they destroyed the Raptors at home, and I have to respect that, but then again, this team has failed to cover against the lowly Clippers and Sonics at home as well. So, likely no play. I dislike small NBA cards as the lines are so tight and today is no different. On to college basketball, where the lines are a bit "looser".
College Basketball
ACC & Big East
No lines on Charleston Southern vs. Va Tech & Robert Morris vs. BC.
No Big East Ballgames today.
Horizon
Butler vs. Loyola Chicago
I thought this was interesting, check these results from the Butler vs. Loyola-Chicago series of the past few years:
03/03/07 BUT 67 - LOCHI 66 (OT)
02/22/07 BUT 71 - LOCHI 75
01/25/07 LOCHI 66 - BUT 70 (OT)
02/16/06 BUT 62 - LOCHI 50
Just based on this it might seem that Loyola Chicago is a decent dog today catching 11+. As per the power rankings, there is a good reason why this team is dogged by 11.5. After all, when Butler goes on the road to play 250 power ranking teams (which is where Loyola Chicago is), it is a low scoring ballgame, and they win by 13 points, just like they did against Evansville 60-47. However, this team beat top 225 Detroit by just 7. Loyola Chicago has lost their 4 straight though, but finally come back home for a home ballgame - they desperately need to do well after some tough road losses, a small lean on Loyola-Chicago.
IVY/Missouri Valley/SEC
No lines for any of these conferences.
Explanation of comp plays:
Please keep in mind that the Comp play is always one of the premium plays. I typically do 3 premium plays a day. One of them, is the POD, the other is another premium selection, typically my 2nd favorite, and the 3rd fav, is the last premium selection, which most of the time, is the comp play. Similar to my friend Wunderdog, I feel that if you put out a play, it shouldn't be half-hazard and it should be something that you actually play. Sometimes the 3rd play hits, sometimes it doesn't. In fact, there are times when the comp play doesn't hit, but the other 2 plays win. There are other days where the comp play wins, but my other 2 plays miss. It just depends on the day. Thus, take it for what it's worth. It does add another useful element to the blog each day, many appreciate it, so I will continue to follow this format. Thanks.
Monday's Complimentary Play (8-4 Run with Comp Plays)
North Texas -10
Going with the Mean Green as the home favorite for the comp play today. I have North Texas on the outskirts of a team in the top 100 as they are around the top 120. They face a UL Monroe team that is outside the top 200. what I like about North Texas is that I have them as a top 50 power ranking team at home and this is a team that has lost only to Texas Arlington a top 140 team on the road, Texas a top 10 power ranking team on the road and come off terrible losses to Troy State and Denver on the road, both top 200 power ranking team. So why take them? Well, this team desperately needs a win, a home win and a big win. This team is very green when it comes to the road and that is why they lost those close ballgames to 2 schools they should not have lost to. Nevertheless, they beat Southern and Centenary by 20+ points and you get North Texas, a good basketball school at a decent price, as the numbers dictate a 15+ point win for them. The North Texas coach and players need a big win, and this team did beat 2 essentially top 100 teams in Oklahoma State and Indiana State by around 10 points at home to start the season. I'll take my shot with North Texas here. North Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 ballgames and UL-Monroe is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as underdogs.
Linear Mode
