I know the Pats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9, but I think NY betting fans have hit early opening at +14, and as of this morning going down to +11.5. I'm not a fan of either team, so I can be very objective about this game. I was going to jump all over the Pats at -12, and now I wondering if it can't make it to -10?? Last weekend I took SD +14 and the ML on the Giants(see post 1/20), but I love the Pats to cover on the fast track and great weather in AZ!! As long as Brady doesn't have a cast on his right arm, the Pats will make history. Now the question is, will the public jump on the Pats late and push it back up to -13ish or do they love the underdog and keep taking it down(I hope they do)?? I'm interested to see what happens over the next couple of days, but I'll take the Pats at -11.5 or better. Please post your thoughts. As soon as my guy has the props up, I'll comment on those also. Until then, cash them basketball tickets!!

Sticking this thread and adding a poll - let's start getting everyone's take on this game.

Interesting that the money is coming in on New York. Did the oddsmakers have the wrong line? The public thinks so.

Does anyone give the G-Men a chance at winning this thing outright?

i smell a rat ne by 21 and over

WINNING POINTS

New England over N.Y. Giants by 17 (at Glendale, AZ)
Eighteen times New England has been challenged this season and 18 times
they have pulled through. No doubt the Patriots are a team for the ages with
their record-breaking offense,Tom Brady setting the mark for most touchdown
passes in a year and Randy Moss breaking the wide receiver record for scores
in a season. But the Patriots also have gotten lucky recently. First they drew a
crippled San Diego in the AFC championship game and were able to win
despite three interceptions by Brady.Now they get the New York Giants in the
Super Bowl.The Patriots are going to put up a lot of points on a fast track in
Arizona.The Packers might have been able to keep up with them with Brett
Favre and his outstanding receiver group.The Giants don’t have nearly that
kind of firepower. The Giants are a banged-up, courageous group of overachievers
that has won a record 10 straight road games in a season, including
three straight away playoff games as underdogs. The Giants defeated Tampa
Bay, one of the weakest playoff entries in years, caught a flat Dallas squad and
then drew Green Bay in frigid weather conditions that evened things up
between the two teams. However, now they’re stepping way up in class.This
isn’t going to be a close three-point game like it was at Giants Stadium on Dec.
29 when the Patriots had to come from 12 points down in the second half to
pull out a 38-35 victory.This game occurs under totally different mental and
physical conditions.While it’s true the Patriots have covered only two of their
past 10 games and one out of their last eight, these circumstances are entirely
different.The Patriots are a precision passing team.They’ve been playing in
cold weather, which has affected their attack. Brady should have no problem
nullifying the Giants’ fierce pass rush with quick, short drops under what
should be perfect weather conditions in the desert.The Giants’ beat-up secondary
can’t contend with Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Benjamin
Watson,Kevin Faulk out of the backfield and all the other weapons Brady has,
including running back Laurence Maroney. Cornerbacks Sam Madison,Aaron
Ross and Kevin Dockery, who missed the Packers game, are all dealing with
injuries. It’s not a fluke the Patriots were the greatest scoring team in NFL history.
New England ranked first in offense, averaging 411.3 yards per contest.
The Patriots also were No. 1 in scoring, averaging 36.8 points during the regular
season.They scored a record 589 points. Even if the Giants try doubleteaming
Moss, who hauled in a record 23 touchdown passes, their safeties
aren’t strong enough in coverage to make a difference. The Giants are just
happy to reach the Super Bowl. It’s been a remarkable run.They are to be
applauded.The Patriots, on the other hand, are Super Bowl pros having won
three previous ones, while reaching five AFC title games during the last seven
years. Eli Manning would have to play the game of his life for the Giants to
have a shot.We don’t see that happening. Bill Belichick is a defensive genius.
Give him two weeks to prepare and he can devise the right defense for any
type of offense. Manning deserves credit for playing up to his abilities during
the post-season, but keep in mind opposing defenses were geared to stop the
run and let Manning try to beat them. He did that by being efficient and not
throwing interceptions. Manning has been able to go with the flow and manage
during the playoff rather than make huge plays. He’s averaged 200 yards
passing in the three playoff games.Now his role is going to change,where he’ll
need to be a feared playmaker. Manning has two decent running backs,
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and an outstanding wide receiver,
Plaxico Burress.Whether Burress,bothered by an ankle injury nearly the entire
season, is 100 percent remains to be seen. However, Manning’s other targets
are an over-the-hill 33-year-old Amani Toomer and raw Steve Smith.The loss of
star tight end Jeremy Shockey is difficult to replace. Manning lacks a reliable
third target.Brady has multiple options.The Chargers couldn’t stretch the field
with their great tight end, Antonio Gates, rendered practically immobile
because of a dislocated toe.That’s what you need to do to have a shot against
the Patriots.New England’s defense can’t match its offense, but it is solid and
extremely well-coached. New England yielded an average of 17.1 points per
game.The Patriots have some age, but veterans Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison
and Co. will be helped by the two week interval. Because Belichick has good
cover cornerbacks, he can unload every blitz imaginable against the immobile
Manning. NEW ENGLAND 38-21.
OVER/UNDER: The Super Bowl total often is jacked up by the oddsmaker,
anticipating public money to be on the ‘over.’That’s probably going to be the
case here. Still, you have to figure this is going to be a high-scoring game, just
like the team’s first meeting when 73 points were scored.The Patriots are 10-
4-1 to the ‘over’ in their last 15 games as a favorite of 10 _ or more points.New
England went above the total in 10 of its first 12 games this season until the
weather started turning bad.This matchup is going to be in ideal conditions.
Brady should have little trouble picking apart a vulnerable, beat-up Giants secondary.
The Giants have gone ‘under’ in four of their last five games as a road
underdog.The Giants would like to keep the ball away from Brady by establishing
an effective ground attack. Belichick is no fool. He’ll be having his
defense geared to take away the run, forcing the Giants to pass more than perhaps
they would like.Super Bowl games often turn into blowouts when things
get out of hand because the team trailing has nothing to lose.That very well
could be the case here.

THE SPORTS REPORTER


****RECOMMENDED****

NEW ENGLAND over NY GIANTS by 6
[NY Giants, plus the points. It’s only one game, never overbet it.] Sports Reporter community:
You just won three straight NFL post-season Best Bets on the San Diego
Chargers. Where are you going next? ‘’We’re going to the Super Bowl!” Not with the
Chargers, but hey, that’s okay. They were a fun and profitable point-spread play while
they lasted. What do we have here? It looks very similar to the situation described last
week regarding New England. Bill Belichick is now the guy who Bill Belichick used to
beat. He is the big favorite who, if he continues to play the same way that got him here,
can be defended against in an opposing team’s effort to keep the game close and be in
it with a chance to win it at the end. Belichick’s own reputation and upwardly mobile path
was created that way 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXV against the Buffalo Bills, a landmark
game frequently referenced by us for the ultimate in offensive/defensive mesh --
being able to control the clock with and without the ball, taking away what a cocky offensive
opponent does best and forcing them to do something they wouldn’t necessarily
choose to do in order to avoid losing. Hey, Belichick was the guy whose defense beat Bill
Walsh-Joe Montana-Jerry Rice, and Jim Kelly-Thurman Thomas-Andre Reed within
seven days that season, supported by a no-name offense. He was the guy whose Patriots
were once 5-0 SU vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts, forcing Manning to become a more
patient passer, (and prompting the NFL to alter rules against defensive players which
now lead to cheap offensive gains via defensive penalties that have really cheapened
this sport). He was the guy who, with the 2001 New England underdogs, took down the
St. Louis Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf at +14. That’s the Belichick you look forward to
betting on in the post-season: the big underdog who is forced to break with tendencies
and come up with a different, creative package against a supremely talented but stubborn
opponent, and who also has the ability to sell that package to a group of experienced
players smart enough to buy into it.
But that role is not available to him here. Belichick is now – irony of ironies -- Mike Martz.
Lopsided early-season wins against a bunch of tomato cans and other teams in transitional
states (like the Chargers, who fell 38-14 at New England in Week 2), have created
not just a 18-0 SU record to be protected, but two-score point-spread differences.
This is the NFL, where margins of that size are usually unsustainable by virtue of the very
parity the NFL is designed to create. That axiom has been proven – or appears to have
been proven – in the 1-7 ATS exploits of bandwagon jumpers laying points on New
England in the last eight games played by the 18-0 SU Patriots. The spread failures and
narrower victory margins began against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson is the guy who tutored current Giants’ defensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo. The Eagles did their best to take away the deep pass from Tom Brady to
Randy Moss, changed defensive alignments, and pressured Tom Brady. Because
Philadelphia had some dynamic defensive personnel and was not a soft, lame-butt or
transitioning defense like the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills or Miami
Dolphins units that New England had feasted on earlier, they were able to play this way
and come close to winning. That was the “13 catches by Wes Welker” game. If you’re
playing against New England, you want Wes Welker to catch 13 passes because his
yards per catch of 10.5 is 33% lower than Moss’ ypc, and Moss caught three times as
many TD passes as Welker despite having 14 fewer receptions.
If Belichick is the one who must change anything to adapt to what the opponent is doing
– like running Laurence Maroney a season-high 22 to 26 times against the New York
Jets, and in both playoff wins against Jacksonville and San Diego – then he is getting
away from the big pass plays that powered the Patriots to the early blowout wins that
earned them their inflated power rating. The Pats are 0-3 ATS in games with 22 or more
carries by Maroney.
Before the season, Tom Coughlin said that he wanted the Giants to play like the NBA’s
champion San Antonio Spurs. Steady, unspectacular, fundamentally sound, accountable
to themselves and their teammates, and with respect for the coaches. Luckily for them,
The Man Who Loves Himself, Tiki Barber, quit after last season and Jeremy Shockey, The
Most Overrated Tight End That Ever Lived, was injured and “lost” for the season in Week
15. Note that the Giants are 5-0 ATS in the five games Shockey has missed. It’s good to
be doubly disease-free. Coughlin was on that 1990 New York Giants Super Bowl staff
with Belichick. He was coaching the no-name wide receivers Baker, Ingram and Manuel.
(Who?) He knows Belichick, he knows people who know Belichick. He knows that he has
the option of playing like Belichick used to play, and that Belichick knows as well as anyone
that if New York does play like Belichick used to play, then Belichick shouldn’t be a
14-point favorite in this game.
Spagnuolo replaced Tim Lewis as Giants’ defensive coordinator after last season. The
last “Lewis off” team was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl after
Lewis was canned after 2004 and replaced by **** LeBeau. Spagnuolo has two weeks
to consider and possibly practice 5- and 6-defensive back alignments to disrupt Tom
Brady’s timing. In other words, take a page from Belichick’s book. When Spagnuolo was
a defensive assistant in Philadelphia four years ago, the Eagles were –3 in turnovers but
lost by only 3 points to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. While Terrell Owens had the kind
of monster receiving game that the Giants’ Plaxico Burress just had against the Packers,
“New England handled frequent blitzes, Deion Branch caught four passes for 71 yards
on a series…” and, according to Branch, “We did a great job of adjusting during the
game. It was physical. A lot of guys were bumped and bruised." So, is there really a
major on-field difference between then, and now?
The key to the whole game is for the Giants to not trail by two scores. Supported by
return units that secure good starting field position, New York is usually well-balanced
enough on offense to avoid that situation as long as turnovers are avoided, as they have
been so far in the ’07 post-season. But if a two-score Giants deficit materializes, a savvy
New England defense can gamble against and bait Eli Manning. Experienced gamblers
with a lead, vs. a still-young quarterback, would probably press their advantage and win
easily. So here’s hoping the Giants don’t get all “Packer proud” and expose their secondary
to excessive, stubborn man coverage that allows big plays or big, cheap gains
via penalties. Make the Patriots work and sweat for their yards. New England averaged
24 first downs per game during the regular season, 24.5 in the two playoff wins. But in
games against opponents whose offenses averaged 22 first downs (Indianapolis), 20
(Philadelphia), 20 (NY Giants) and 20 (Jacksonville), the Patriots did not cover the spread.
Geez, if only Eli was capable of scrambling for a few first downs like Jeff Hostetler was,
the Giants would win this game outright. NEW ENGLAND, 30-24.

POINTWISE


SUPER BOWL FACTS (In No Particular Order of Importance)
In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 8
have seen 3 such instances: Tennessee (+7) losing 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV;
Carolina (+7) losing 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVII, & Philadelphia (+7) losing 24-
21 in Super Bowl XXXIX. The underdog has gone 6-4-2 ATS in the last 12
Super Bowls. A highly unusual aspect of this year's game, is the amount of
common foes faced by both teams, with 11 of the Giants' 19 opponents also
playing the Patriots, & with 10 of New England's 18 foes taking on New York.
The Giants were 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) against those squads, while the Patriots
were obviously 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS). The Giants have won a record 10 straight
road games, covering 9 of those 10, by 9.9 ppg ATS. The Pats covered
their first 8 games by 15.7 ppg ATS, with the average spread being minus 10.9
pts. But since then, they stand at just 2-8 vs the pts, with a combined negative
56 pts. The average spread in those 10 games was minus 15.8 pts! Patriots
selected for the Pro Bowl: QB Brady, WR Moss, OT Light, OG Mankins, C
Koppen, DT Wilfork, LB Vrabel, CB Samuel. Giants in the Pro Bowl: DE
Umenyiora. The Giants enter on a 5-0 spread run. The Patriots enter on an
0-5 spread slide. The team with the better spread record has gone 8-2 ATS
in the playoffs, with the only misses coming by ½ pt in Jacksonville's win
over Pittsburgh (with a 1½ pt line move the true culprit), & in New York's
win over Green Bay in -20 degree wind chill weather. The Patriots rank 1st
in 7 offensive categories, rank in the top 5 in 10 offensive categories, & in the
top 10 in 13 offensive categories. The Giants rank in the top 5 in 2 offensive
columns, & in the top 10 in 4 offensive columns. New England ranks in the
top 5 in 7 defensive categories, & in the top 10 in 12 defensive categories. NY
ranks in the top 5 in 5 defensive columns, & in the top 10 in 11 defensive
columns. Brady set an NFL record the year with 50 TD passes during the
regular season, with only 8 interceptions, as he compiled an NFL best 117.2
QB rating. He has thrown for 5 TDs in the playoffs, while setting a playoff
record for completion percentage (92.9) with an incredible 26-of-28 display vs
Jacksonville. But he threw 3 interceptions vs the Chargers, the most he has
thrown since being picked off that many times, by San Diego in LY's playoff win.
And his 1st quarter interception was the first of his career in the 1st quarter of
a playoff game. Manning entered the regular season finale with 19 TD
passes, along with 19 interceptions, with a QB rating of 71.0. But he has
since thrown for 8 touchdowns, with just a single pick, & that vs the likes
of the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, & Packers. He is 53-of-85 (62.3%) for 602
yds, 4 TDs, & no interceptions in the playoffs. His 3-game stretch without
a pick is his longest of the season, as he had gone 2 straight games
without an INT just once. Patriot RB Maroney has four 100 RY efforts in his
last 5 games, including the exact same 122 yds in each playoff game, after
reaching the 100 RY plateau in only 1 of his first 10 games. The Giants' RB
combo of Jacobs & Bradshaw have run for 318 yds in the playoffs, with
5.0 & 8.3 ypr, respectively, during the regular season. New England WR
Moss set an NFL record with 23 TD catches during the regular season, along
with 98 catches. During the playoffs, he has just 2 catches, for 14 &18 yds.
But his teammate WR Welker has 18 catches in the playoffs (2 TDs), to go
along with his NFL-best 112 receptions during the regular season. The Giant
WR duo of Burress & Toomer combined for 129 catches in the regular
season, for 15 TDs. In their 1st 2 playoff games, Toomer had 11 catches
for 3 TDs, while Burress exploded vs the Packers, with a career high 11
catches for 154 yds. The Giants had a chance to derail the Patriots' shot at a
perfect 16-0 regular season, coming up just 3 pts short on the final week of the
season, as 13½ pt dogs. The Patriots had a 36:18-23:42 time edge in that
one. The Giants fumbled it 5 times vs the Packers, but lost only 1. This year's
Patriot edition is the highest scoring team in history (589 regular season
pts). Brady is 14-2 SU in playoff games, but just 8-7-1 ATS. The Pats' 18
wins ties the '84 Niners, & '85 Bears for the most-ever in a season. Both
head coaches (Coughlin of the Giants, & Belichick of the Patriots), coached
under the legendary Bill Parcells. NY's 3 straight road wins in this year's
playoffs has only been done twice previously: by the '85 Patriots, & by
the '05 Steelers. The Pats were then routed, 46-10, by the Bears in the
Super Bowl, while Pitt eased by the Seahawks, 21-10. The Patriots are on
the verge of history, with their seemingly unstoppable offense, led by one of the
elite QBs of all time in Brady. But their invincibility (25.4 ppg edge in their first
10 games), has been tested with 4 wins of 4 pts or less. And their recent ATS
demise can be attributed to spreads bordering on the ridiculous. They are a
majestic force, to be sure. But the Giants didn't back off in their first meeting,
& have the pressure "D" to at least keep Manning in sight. And perhaps no one
knows the Patriots as well as does Eli's brother Peyton. New England's 3-0
Super Bowl run has been by 3, 3, & 3 pts. So why not another? Points the play.
PROPHECY: New England 26 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 3

Very good insight GIANTS007!! I totally agree with the Pats are going to be aggressive on both sides of the ball, just like they have been all year. The key to the whole game, in my opinion, is the Pats getting up early, and trying to put the pressure on Manning. If this is the case, it's a blow out 38-14. If it's tight during the first half, and the Giants have some success running the ball, it will be a great game until the end, but the Pats still cover 27-14. And not really thinking about it, I guess I like the under 53.5. I'm not as confident with the under as I am the Pats-11.5, because I really see the blow out game and the Pats could score 45 in a blink of an eye. Just for fun, does anyone have the stats/trends on the coin toss??

The site I use just released 1st Half line as of 1/24 11:30am

1st Half
Pats -7 even
Pats ML -325
o/u 27.5

I can"t believe that NE on the cusp of a historical season won't be the public
favorite and this # goes back up. You'll never see 10 and I believe 12.5/13 at
kick-off. You can note that the services will be all over the NYG at least 60/40
but I could have predicited that 2 weeks ago as they always push the SB dog.
I can remember Miami in 72 and you just sent it in but of course that was only
-3. Pick the winner and don't sweat the # ,last year one of the exceptions.
Coin-flip contrary to the off-hand I think tails is the winner over all.

Let me point this out about when these two teams met last time. For the Pats right Guard Stephen Neal and right tackle Nick Kaczur(both starters on the O line) were out of that game and also both tight ends(watson,Brady) did not play that game. Does this mean something? I will leave the experts on here to debate whether this plays into the game or not.

I am not going to bet this game because I will have too much rooting interest to look at it fairly.My hometown team has a chance to make history and I must admit that the thought of that has me looking at this game through rose colored glasses. As much as I want to see a competitve game(who doesn't if you are going to spend close to 4 hours watching something), I see this as a similar situation to when San Francisco played the Chargers in the super bowl(55-10). I hope it is more like the 49ers-Bengals game(20-16).

Take care and good luck

lillefty

Ah, close, but it was:

SF-18 winning 49-26 thus covering by 5 not 27.

I think SB are blow-outs and if you pick NE to win lay the wood...

I got them at -12.

BOL to all,

Derty D

i got about 4 guys so far that think so.. yet to recieve a pats bet

__________________
..............and don't forget they are 5-2 ATS in night games on astro turf in 2nd week in November in non-confrence away games vs. a left handed QB in the last 40 years when the line is between -5 and 5 coming vs a ranked opponent coming off a SU win as a dog and the total is over 36.5 when there was a NBA game played the night before and the temperature is between 40-70 degrees

Without any help or looking it up, how many of you know what the darn roman numeral 'XLII' means? I personally gave it up years ago. Just refer to it as SB period. I guess that numbering system must be started from some guys over Sicily or something since they never taught that in the US of A! And you always thought football is American sport.

Enough with b.s. The Pats truly deserved to be honored in a new chapter of NFL history. But not sure if there would be an asterisk next to it (the video thing.)
So there is some degree of pressure on them since they are expected to win, while the Giants play with nothing to lose. They have been on a roll, a-home-way-from-home, winning 10 consecutive game on the road so the momentum is what propeled them into this SB. They proved they can rematch (lost to Cowboys twice in regular season) raising their confidence level to the highest. With all these tangible factors it's hard to go against them. I am stat/trend illiterated so that all I can come up with. My only concern is that the line actually a little high making Giants an attracted bet. Would be much more comfortable if it dropped to 10 or below which probably will not happen.
Given the floating point, I'll dish myself with a small Giants bet while enjoying myself an ever-American pastime Super Sunday.

glta & enjoy everyone,
C.

x = 10
L = 50
I = 1
v = 5

when a smaller number comes in front of a larger numeral it is like a minus

so XL = 40
IV = 4


when trailering its like addition

LX = 60

so

XLII = 10 - from 50 + 1 +1

SB 42

__________________
..............and don't forget they are 5-2 ATS in night games on astro turf in 2nd week in November in non-confrence away games vs. a left handed QB in the last 40 years when the line is between -5 and 5 coming vs a ranked opponent coming off a SU win as a dog and the total is over 36.5 when there was a NBA game played the night before and the temperature is between 40-70 degrees

Excellent write up. Is your system as good as you sound?

just gonna watch the game...... im going the totally oppisite the second half.....

EX: giants cover the the half taking NE the sec
ne cover the first taking giants the sec

who knows what will happen....
dam bookmakers, i truely believe they have everything to do it.....



lol

I got NE @ -11 & under 53 1/2. I think that towards the end of the year, Belicheck went into "last 15 games of NBA season" mode - which I always felt that most playoff bound teams in the NBA usually were just playing to win by 1 point and not get hurt (thus the close games for NE at the end of the year).

I try to anchor most of my betting by following trends and over a 5 year period I very rarely went against NE - don't bet against Brady & NE in a super bowl (even though they didn't cover against my hometown Panthers)


My wife likes tails, too.

I like Giants Moneyline i think they can really do this. All they have to do is get to Brady and get to him early because if they are up going into the second half you are going to see the best football game this year. The Giants are really going underestimated here and i believe that they come out and do it here. I also like the under on this one because the best offense is a good defense.