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NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

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  • NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

    Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

    NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

    Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007


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    *****
    Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings
    through Saturday, October 3, 2009 (Week 5)

    NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points

    To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3
    points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings.

    Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU
    1 1 Florida SECe 4-0 .974 78 1 1 79-27
    2 2 Texas B12s 4-0 .961 69 2 5 75-30
    3 6 Southern Cal PacT 4-1 .934 33 4 2 73-22
    4 5 Alabama SECw 5-0 .922 61 10 6 67-23
    5 3 Oklahoma B12s 2-2 .898 26 3 4 74-28
    6 4 Boise St WAC 5-0 .890 81 11 10 65-26
    7 9 Ohio St BigT 4-1 .879 22 27 3 65-19
    8 7 TCU MtnW 4-0 .877 107 12 7 66-24
    9 13 LSU SECw 5-0 .873 28 22 12 61-25
    10 8 Cincinnati BigE 5-0 .872 68 13 16 62-27
    11 12 Kansas B12n 4-0 .844 112 9 18 63-28
    12 11 Oregon PacT 4-1 .841 18 8 26 62-30
    13 15 Missouri B12n 4-0 .831 88 14 29 60-28
    14 14 Iowa BigT 5-0 .831 47 51 9 59-19
    15 23 Penn St BigT 4-1 .830 72 17 8 64-23
    16 21 Auburn SECw 5-0 .827 64 24 24 59-26
    17 16 Virginia Tech ACCc 4-1 .820 15 31 11 60-23
    18 31 Miami-Florida ACCc 3-1 .817 1 33 31 57-26
    19 24 Arizona PacT 3-1 .786 31 19 20 60-26
    20 18 Brigham Young MtnW 4-1 .785 39 15 34 60-28
    21 20 South Florida BigE 5-0 .784 119 25 14 60-24
    22 25 Nebraska B12n 3-1 .781 63 18 25 60-27
    23 22 Oklahoma St B12s 3-1 .768 91 7 40 61-31
    24 19 Texas Tech B12s 3-2 .767 52 6 33 62-31
    25 34 Mississippi SECw 3-1 .765 76 26 13 60-24
    26 32 Wisconsin BigT 5-0 .764 74 23 48 56-28
    27 17 Georgia SECe 3-2 .756 2 20 28 59-27
    28 29 Notre Dame Xind 4-1 .749 34 28 39 57-26
    29 30 Tulsa USAw 4-1 .748 73 16 47 58-30
    30 28 Utah MtnW 3-1 .747 58 38 15 59-23
    31 10 Houston USAw 3-1 .737 41 5 64 58-36
    32 26 California PacT 3-2 .735 17 21 22 60-26
    33 36 Georgia Tech ACCc 4-1 .725 55 35 36 57-26
    34 37 Stanford PacT 4-1 .718 77 39 37 56-25
    35 27 South Carolina SECe 4-1 .717 51 60 19 55-21
    36 48 Pittsburgh BigE 4-1 .692 85 42 46 55-26
    37 43 Oregon St PacT 3-2 .676 36 29 35 57-26
    38 39 West Virginia BigE 3-1 .670 87 37 38 56-26
    39 41 Central Mich MACw 4-1 .666 62 46 49 54-26
    40 38 Connecticut BigE 3-1 .662 86 53 21 55-21
    41 33 UCLA PacT 3-1 .658 44 64 30 53-21
    42 54 Boston College ACCa 4-1 .622 83 58 41 53-23
    43 35 Clemson ACCa 2-3 .621 14 55 17 55-21
    44 58 Arkansas SECw 2-2 .602 23 30 56 54-29
    45 50 Baylor B12s 3-1 .593 101 43 55 53-28
    46 42 Kentucky SECe 2-2 .587 4 47 53 52-27
    47 57 Wake Forest ACCa 3-2 .582 56 56 43 53-23
    48 53 Rutgers BigE 3-1 .580 100 57 45 52-23
    49 45 Tennessee SECe 2-3 .575 19 49 32 55-23
    50 40 Arizona St PacT 2-2 .571 65 52 27 55-23
    51 49 Florida St ACCa 2-3 .566 16 40 51 54-27
    52 46 Michigan BigT 4-1 .565 75 59 68 49-27
    53 60 Michigan St BigT 2-3 .547 43 44 44 55-26
    54 47 Texas A&M B12s 3-1 .542 108 36 78 51-31
    55 52 Minnesota BigT 3-2 .540 27 54 60 50-26
    56 44 Southern Miss USAe 3-2 .537 93 41 52 54-27
    57 55 N Carolina St ACCa 3-2 .520 99 48 54 52-27
    58 62 Washington PacT 2-3 .496 3 61 65 48-26
    59 63 Troy St SunB 2-2 .495 6 66 61 48-25
    60 59 Fresno St WAC 1-3 .483 12 34 66 52-30
    61 56 Air Force MtnW 3-2 .480 111 63 50 51-23
    62 51 North Carolina ACCc 3-2 .474 67 89 42 49-20
    63 66 Middle Tenn SunB 3-1 .451 80 77 80 45-26
    64 61 Illinois BigT 1-3 .446 10 45 57 52-28
    65 71 Navy Xind 3-2 .444 49 84 72 45-25
    66 65 Mississippi St SECw 2-3 .428 25 68 70 47-26
    67 64 Vanderbilt SECe 2-3 .421 57 93 23 51-17
    68 78 Northern Ill MACw 3-2 .416 105 87 58 47-23
    69 82 Nevada WAC 1-3 .411 20 32 74 51-31
    70 72 Toledo MACw 3-2 .410 50 50 100 45-32
    71 70 East Carolina USAe 3-2 .397 82 80 59 47-23
    72 75 La-Monroe SunB 3-2 .396 45 70 90 44-28
    73 67 Colorado St MtnW 3-2 .377 71 79 85 44-27
    74 83 Ohio U MACe 3-2 .357 89 74 87 44-27
    75 69 Indiana BigT 3-2 .357 79 85 86 43-26
    76 76 Arkansas St SunB 1-3 .354 37 67 63 48-25
    77 86 Northwestern BigT 3-2 .348 114 83 71 46-24
    78 85 Central Florida USAe 3-2 .348 103 102 67 44-22
    79 97 UT-El Paso USAw 2-3 .327 11 62 112 41-33
    80 84 Kansas St B12n 3-2 .327 116 78 76 45-26
    81 73 Purdue BigT 1-4 .315 29 69 77 46-27
    82 90 Idaho WAC 4-1 .315 106 95 114 38-30
    83 99 Louisiana Tech WAC 2-2 .307 84 99 79 43-24
    84 68 Louisville BigE 1-3 .307 40 65 75 47-27
    85 79 Iowa St B12n 3-2 .299 113 96 91 42-26
    86 94 Maryland ACCa 2-3 .294 59 75 83 45-27
    87 95 Temple MACe 2-2 .293 97 107 69 42-20
    88 89 La-Lafayette SunB 2-2 .291 38 97 96 41-27
    89 87 Colorado B12n 1-3 .287 60 76 73 46-25
    90 77 Bowling Green MACe 1-4 .281 21 71 84 45-27
    91 92 Wyoming MtnW 3-2 .278 66 113 81 40-21
    92 106 Virginia ACCc 1-3 .275 35 105 62 44-20
    93 81 Marshall USAe 3-2 .265 94 111 92 39-23
    94 80 UN-Las Vegas MtnW 2-3 .249 92 72 101 42-30
    95 74 Hawaii WAC 2-2 .246 117 73 97 43-29
    96 91 Syracuse BigE 2-3 .242 46 98 102 40-27
    97 105 UA-Birmingham USAe 2-3 .238 70 88 104 40-29
    98 93 Duke ACCc 2-3 .228 102 94 94 41-27
    99 96 Buffalo MACe 1-4 .218 48 90 82 44-25
    100 98 Utah St WAC 1-3 .218 24 86 107 40-30
    101 88 Western Mich MACw 2-3 .214 109 101 89 42-25
    102 103 SMU USAw 2-2 .207 90 100 111 38-29
    103 102 San Jose St WAC 1-3 .202 7 117 88 38-21
    104 100 Akron MACe 1-3 .191 53 91 103 41-28
    105 111 Tulane USAw 2-2 .166 95 112 108 36-26
    106 109 Kent St MACe 2-3 .153 104 116 95 37-23
    107 107 Rice USAw 0-5 .145 5 81 115 39-31
    108 104 Florida Int SunB 0-4 .145 9 92 109 39-29
    109 101 Florida Atl SunB 0-4 .143 32 82 105 41-30
    110 113 San Diego St MtnW 2-3 .141 110 106 110 36-27
    111 110 Washington St PacT 1-4 .134 8 114 116 34-27
    112 108 Memphis USAe 1-4 .129 96 103 98 39-26
    113 115 New Mexico MtnW 0-5 .115 30 108 93 39-24
    114 114 North Texas SunB 1-3 .112 42 115 119 32-28
    115 116 Miami-Ohio MACe 0-5 .093 13 110 113 35-27
    116 112 Army Xind 2-3 .093 118 120 99 33-19
    117 117 Eastern Mich MACw 0-4 .059 98 104 117 35-29
    118 118 Ball St MACw 0-5 .058 115 109 106 37-26
    119 119 New Mexico St WAC 2-3 .054 120 119 118 30-23
    120 120 Western Ky SunB 0-4 .034 54 118 120 28-26
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