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Knup's College Football Hard Hitters

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  • Knup's College Football Hard Hitters

    Let's do this! COLLEGE FOOTBALL kicks off tomorrow. Anyone ready to make some bank this season?

    Umass ML
    Rice +31

    Good luck everyone!

  • #2
    Good luck Knup!!


    • #3
      Like it. Mass is a looonngg way from Hawaii. Long trips wear on these kids. Know it's a lot of points but USF is supposed to be real strong this year. Good luck.


      • #4
        With USC on the radar, I love the Rice play Knup! Line opened up at Stanford -38 and now is down to -30! Crazy! I see Stanford running it up to about a 4 touchdown lead than just running the clock out so they don't show their hand to the Trojans. Best of luck on Saturday!


        • #5
          Originally posted by eagle73 View Post
          Like it. Mass is a looonngg way from Hawaii. Long trips wear on these kids. Know it's a lot of points but USF is supposed to be real strong this year. Good luck.
          Thanks for the input. Yeah I'm a bit nervous about the Mass game.... They aren't real good at football either lol. We will see what happens. Good luck to you as well...


          • #6
            Originally posted by DennyC716 View Post
            With USC on the radar, I love the Rice play Knup! Line opened up at Stanford -38 and now is down to -30! Crazy! I see Stanford running it up to about a 4 touchdown lead than just running the clock out so they don't show their hand to the Trojans. Best of luck on Saturday!
            Thanks DennyC716 -- appreciate the input. Should be good times watching some football. GL to all.


            • #7
              Ok so not such a great start last week. But as I always say -- its a marathon and not a sprint. So let's keep grinding.

              Record: 0-2 (- 2.20 units)

              Thursday Week 1
              UCF -17
              Oklahoma State -18
              Indiana +21.5
              New Mexico State +23


              • #8
                Bang! 3-1 last night. Solid! Let's hit em hard on Friday leading into a monster Saturday.

                Record: 3-2 (-.30 units)

                Friday Week 1 Northern Illinois +4
                Northern Illinois / Boston College Under 51 — Should be a solid low scoring game at NIU on Friday night as Boston College comes to town. With the BC questions at QB, I think they struggle to score out of the gate. Home field momentum will keep NIU in this til the end. I like them winning the game by a field goal. Bonus… This game goes WAYYYY under. May be my play of the day. NIU / Boston College UNDER 51
                Colorado State +4 — Maybe I’m buying too much into the Week 0 blowout, but I think CSU is good this year. Colorado only returns a handful of starters and will have some growing pains early. I like CSU to actually win this game on the road in this big rivalry. Colorado State 34 – Colorado 27
                Florida Atlantic +10 — this is an interesting one. Kiffin’s audition with Florida Atlantic at home in prime time. Should be hyped. This line started at like -21 for Navy and is down to -10. I’m taking a flyer on FAU on Friday. Florida Atlantic 31 – Navy 28


                • #9
                  2-2 last night bringing me to even. Today is what we have been waiting for .... forever. College football Saturday week 1! Lets get it started today! Good luck fellow cappers.

                  Record: 5-4 (-.5 units)

                  Saturday Week 1
                  Iowa -12 -- This Iowa team has a lot coming back from a successful season last year. I look for them to pick up where they left off. Wyoming will put up some points with their talented QB (Allen) but not enough for Iowa. Iowa wins 37-21
                  Bowling Green +17 -- Knup's "PUBLIC LINE MOVERS" system play. Bowling Green runs a lot and finds a way to keep this close.
                  Cal +13 -- On the road against a North Carolina team with a lot of questions on offense. Defensively they scare me a bit. But I think Cal shows much more balance this year and Runs/Passes consistently. This spread should be single digits. Carolina wins but by 7-8 points.
                  South Carolina +5 -- The line movement on this game from open til now concerns me a bit. But overall I truly think South Carolina is the better team here. NC State has so many question marks coming into the season while SC is a little more established and building on last year. South Carolina wins the game SU.
                  Michigan -4 -- These Florida suspensions paired with the fact that they may be starting a Freshman quarterback means Michigan runs away with this one. I personally witnessed Michigan dismantle Florida in a bowl game a couple years ago and can't shake that from my head. This could get ugly again. Michigan wins by double digits and Florida's streak of opener winners comes to an end.
                  Troy +10 -- Knup's "PUBLIC LINE MOVERS" system play.
                  South Alabama +24 -- Knup's "PUBLIC LINE MOVERS" system play. Plus, I'm not sold on Ole Miss at all. Will take the +24 happily to start the season.
                  Arkansas State +14 -- Knup's "PUBLIC LINE MOVERS" system play. And I truly think Arkansas State is a bit underrated while Nebraska is overrated. Look for Ark St. to hang close with Nebraska pulling out a squeeker. Nebraska wins by 4.
                  Florida State +7 -- VERY tough to fade Bama. That always bites me but giving me +7 for a potential top team in the Nation, on a neutral field, I'll take it. Going to be a fun game!!!
                  BYU +15 -- Another big dog on a neutral field. I am not buying into the LSU hype as much as some. They will miss Fournette more than they know. BYU hangs in this one.

                  I locked into these lines as of 9/1/2017 so they may have moved this morning. GOOOOOOD LUCK!


                  • #10
                    Not a bad Saturday. Nothing special but some profits. 6-4 day for +1.60 units. Got one play for Sunday and won't have one on Monday's game.

                    Record: 11-8 (+1.1 units)

                    Sunday Week 1
                    Virginia Tech -4 "PUBLIC LINE MOVERS" system play. Should be a fun rivalry game between WVU and Va Tech. We will see if the rookie QB for Va Tech can handle the pressure and make things happen. Va Tech wins by 7-10. ** locked nto this line on Saturday


                    • #11
                      Reports say WV QB Grier has looked strong. Have to take points against VT frosh QB and a defense that hasn't been the usual stop unit. WV has a strong run game and may be able to control tempo.


                      • #12
                        Keep grinding away Knup....good job!


                        • #13
                          Ok it's time to start digging into week 2 kids! Let's get some wins once again this week.

                          Total Record: 12-8 (+2.1 units)
                          Week 2 Record: 0-0
                          Week 1 Record: 12-8 (+2.1 units)

                          Friday Week 2

                          Purdue -3 -- The Boilermakers looked fairly impressive last week against a solid Louisville team. Look for them to have a nice easy winner in their home opener on Friday night. Ohio won easily in week 1 but isn't prepared to take on a Big 10 team yet. The line movement concerns me a little as the public is pounding Purdue yet the movement is towards Ohio a bit. But I'm going against that tonight and betting Purdue -3.


                          • #14
                            Picked up my first win of week 2 last night. Let's go! Big Saturday here again... Let's get after it.

                            Total Record: 13-8 (+3.1 units)
                            Week 2 Record: 1-0 (+1.00 units)
                            Week 1 Record: 12-8 (+2.1 units)

                            Saturday Week 2

                            Michigan -34 The Wolverines head home and look to feast on an average Cincinnati team. This one will not be pretty. If you watched Michigan last weekend, they looked like the real deal. Offensively and defensively they should dominate Cinci. I look for a 40+ blowout by the Wolverines in front of the home crowd. One of my favorite early Saturday week 2 plays. Michigan by 42.

                            Louisville -9 Last week the Cardinals struggled a bit against Purdue. But, If you really look at it, they were destroyed by penalties and a couple key turnovers. They will clean up the penalties this week and are way more talented than North Carolina. The Tarheels lost at home last week to Cal and will do so again in week 2. We can get Louisville at a discounted line due to their poor performance in week 1. Louisville wins by 20+ in this one.

                            Iowa -3 It's going to start to look like I'm a Big Ten fanboy here soon. And I'm not! But the Cy-Hawk rivalry should be owned by Iowa. I nailed them last week and going back to them again in week 2. The Cyclones do have a nice passing game which concerns me a little. But the rest is owed by the Hawkeyes. Iowa wins by a touchdown.

                            Wake Forest PK Knup's PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system play.
                            UAB +14 So a new football program with an established head coach. Lots of transfers, lots of hype, lots of interest in this UAB program. Ball State played well at Illinois but came up short. Ball State been really bad at home over the last year or so. Look for a boring environment, look for a low score, 14 points is too much. I like UAB to hang tight in this one. Probably won't win the game but covering +14 is likely in my opinion. Bet UAB +14.

                            Arkansas +3 Very similar teams in talent I think. Both are trying to get up to that next echelon of teams. Give me the home team +3 points in this one and I think Arkansas has a nice shot to win this game SU.

                            Tulane +12 Sure we all saw what Navy did last week. But now they get a Tulane team that can actually play some defense. Look for them to come back to reality a bit on Saturday. Tulane has a nice shot to win this game and should cover the +12.

                            Marshall +24 This is a solid Marshall team and a NC State team that has a lot of question marks. NC State wins fairly easily but Marshall not going to get blown out. NC State by 17.

                            Auburn +5 — This is going to be a great game. And it fits into my “PUBLIC LINE MOVERS” system. So I’m going to play it but a bit cautious still. Auburn’s defense should keep this game close. I like it to be decided by a field goal so taking the +5 is good. In death valley could be trouble. Clemson wins by 3 so not much room for error.

                            Ohio State -7 — Staying on the Big Ten bandwagon for this week I guess. This game fits in the “PUBLIC LINE MOVERS” system so it’s a play for me. Sure, Oklahoma is solid but I think Ohio State at home will run away with this one a bit. Should be a fun game to bet on and watch.

                            Illinois +7 — Is Lovie Smith’s fighting Illini really a 7 point dog at home against a smaller conference school? Wow. Gotta take the home Illini to cover this one and compete here.

                            Texas San Antonio +15 — Baylor showed us they aren’t real good in week 1. PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system play gives me UTSA +15 in this one.

                            USC -6 — This won’t be a real popular play as most like Stanford. USC has gotten beat regularly by Stanford over the years. But this is fitting into my PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system like many other of these night games. USC takes care of business and wins by more than a touchdown on Saturday night.

                            My Leans (not games I'm playing as of now)

                            Duke +2.5 If this line moves back to Duke +3 I'd probably jump on it. I like the Blue Devils to win this game at home against Northwestern. May turn into a play at +3 or more.

                            Wisconsin -33 Not quite enough yet to make me play this game but I’m leaning Badgers. Long travel for FAU and dealing with Irma impacts, their mind won't be on football. Plus we saw last week - they aren't real good as they got beat by over 20 to Navy. Wisci rolls but 33 is a lot.

                            Virginia +3 At home against an Indiana team getting a bit more hype than they should thanks to their nice showing last weekend against Ohio State.

                            Old Dominion -4 Pretty simple. They are a better team than Mass. Umass has a streak of losing, Old Dominion been winning, May play this game if I can get -3.5 and buy it to -3. Check back.

                            Nebraska +13.5 Just seems like a large number for Nebraska. But we know Oregon is explosive and at home. Gun shy here.
                            Last edited by Knup; 09-09-17, 12:59 PM.


                            • #15
                              So let's talk about week 3. I'm going to admit. I didn't feel right capping the slate this week. Lots of tough games and felt like I may have been forcing a play here or there. So buyer beware. But here is what I came up with. Ryan’s Week 3 NCAAF Bets

                              W New Mexico +15 Let’s start the week out with a PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system play here.

                              Memphis +4 Everyone is talking about how good Rosen (QB) is of UCLA… But why aren’t we talking about how bad their defense is? UCLA can not stop the run. Memphis can run with the best of them. UCLA also still has many injury and player questions. Look for the Memphis home field to play a part here. Take Memphis +4.

                              Ohio -7 Seems odd taking Ohio by a touchdown over a Big 12 team. But that team is Kansas. They are one of the worst major conference football programs in the country right now. Ohio waxed that last season and should do so again this season. Ohio by double digits.

                              Connecticut +11 Two pretty bad teams take the field as Uconn plays at Virginia. Uconn won this game last season and really neither team has improved much. I look for this to be a close game with Virginia winning by a FG. Take the +11 points.

                              Duke -14 These two teams are heading in opposite directions. Baylor is downright awful right now and are already shifting to a new QB. Do you really think that will go any better? Duke looks good and has a dynamic player in Jones. I like Duke to win by 20+ here.
                              Central Michigan +10 This should be a shootout as Syracuse and Central Michigan hookup. I think Central Michigan could win this game and will at least hang within 10. In a shocker, Central Michigan wins the game by a field goal.

                              * Army +30 The Buckeyes will roll but not sure they are good enough this year to win by 30+ in this game. Army can fight and won’t go down without a battle. Buckeyes by 3 TD’s — Army covers.
                              * Mississippi State +8 LSU does a good job of burning me most weeks. But I do like the home team in this game. Taking Mississippi State +8 points at home in this nightcap.

                              * Western Kentucky -6 Last week was an anomoly for Western Kentucky as they got whooped by the Illini. Look for them to play much better at home this week and take care of business. WKU covers the -6.

                              * Vanderbilt +4 PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system play here. That’s it.

                              * Arizona State +7 This game is going to be very high scoring. And I like Arizona State to cover and possibly win this game outright. Take the touchdown underdog in this one.

                              Clemson -3 Louisville’s fun comes to an end on Saturday as Clemson comes to town. I think Clemson is a much better team than Louisville. The Cardinals have Jackson — and that’s about it. Look for Clemson to handle them with ease on Saturday. Clemson by 9.

                              * Rice +23 This isn’t as powerful of a team as we have seen Houston have in years past. Rice should stick in this game. Can they win it? No! But can they cover three touchdowns. Absolutely.

                              * USC -15 Texas sucks. USC is good. End of story! Betting on the Trojans to win by 20+ in this game.

                              * San Diego State +9 PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system play here.

                              My Leans

                              Air Force +23 Can’t pull the trigger because historically Michigan is so dynamic scoring and covers these non conference spreads.

                              Utah State +12 This does technically fall under my PUBLIC LINE MOVERS system plays. But, I’m fading due to simply not liking it personally. Could bite me.

                              Florida -4 This is a gut play. In Gainesville and Florida has won 9 of 10 in this series. But Tennessee got them last year. Is Florida back to full strength? How good are they this year? Not sure I’ll play it but leaning Florida.

                              Kentucky +6 Not sure if it’s too early to talk about “regression back to the mean”. But Kentucky 0-2 ATS. Gamecocks 2-0 ATS. Time to even things out a bit. UK covers and I may bet it if I get +7 later on.