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Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

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  • Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

    Please post Today's service plays in this thread. Please do not clutter this thread or make requests for specific plays. We post everything that we can find.

    Please PM Clincher, Zipp or one of the other mods if you have any issues. We thank you for your continued support.

  • #2
    Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

    Exposing the Top 25

    Where the Polls Went Wrong

    Each week throughout the college football season, Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

    Most Underrated Top 25 Team: Michigan State Spartans (11-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)

    The Spartans finished the season with eight straight victories after suffering their only loss to Notre Dame on the road back on September 21. Of those eight victories, many came against quality opponents, and none of those games were close (all decided by double digits).

    Michigan State boasts the nation's No. 4 ranked defense, allowing an average of just 11.8 points per game. The Spartans registered a shutout against Purdue, held Minnesota and Illinois to just three points each, and held Northwestern and Michigan to just six points apiece.

    Most Overrated Top 25 Team: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

    I believe it truly would be a crime if the Buckeyes were to play in the National Championship game ahead of Missouri or Auburn, who will play for the SEC Championship Saturday.

    Ohio State has a perfect 12-0 record, much like Notre Dame did last year. And look what happened to the Irish when they faced an SEC powerhouse - it looked like men against boys. I'm convinced it would be the same story if the Buckeyes were to play any of the Top 5 teams.

    Saturday's win over the Wolverines showed how vulnerable the Buckeyes defense can be, and that was against an unranked opponent. The Buckeyes were very fortunate to have escaped with the win at Ann Arbor in a game that ended with a failed two-point conversion on the final play.

    Unranked Team That Should be Ranked: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2 SU, 6-5-0 ATS)

    The Bearcats have won six straight and they boast a Top-10 defense, allowing opponents an average of 18.5 points per game. They finish the season against Louisville at home and they have won 16 of their last 18 home games.

    Quarterback Brendon Kay has thrown for over 800 yards and six touchdowns, winning back-to-back games on the road.


    • #3
      Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013



      Game 107-108: Memphis at Connecticut (1:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 81.145; Connecticut 69.272
      Dunkel Line: Memphis by 12; 38
      Vegas Line: Memphis by 1; 43
      Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); Under

      Game 109-110: South Florida at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 75.918; Rutgers 73.366
      Dunkel Line: South Florida by 2 1/2; 49
      Vegas Line: Rutgers by 6; 46 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+6); Over

      Game 111-112: Texas at Baylor (3:30 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Texas 95.922; Baylor 123.637
      Dunkel Line: Baylor by 27 1/2; 68
      Vegas Line: Baylor by 14; 73
      Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-14); Under

      Game 113-114: UL-Lafayette at South Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 83.102; South Alabama 74.003
      Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 9; 62
      Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3; 58
      Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+3); Over

      Game 115-116: Central Florida at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 96.574; SMU 80.496
      Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 16; 65
      Vegas Line: No Line
      Dunkel Pick: N/A

      Game 117-118: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (12:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 102.232; Oklahoma State 108.154
      Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 6; 54
      Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 10; 58 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+10); Under

      Game 119-120: Marshall at Rice (12:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 85.469; Rice 89.380
      Dunkel Line: Rice by 4; 66
      Vegas Line: Marshall by 6; 61
      Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6); Over

      Game 121-122: Missouri vs. Auburn (4:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 107.460; Auburn 112.329
      Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5; 52
      Vegas Line: Auburn by 2; 58
      Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-2); Under

      Game 123-124: Duke vs. Florida State (8:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Duke 93.459; Florida State 128.076
      Dunkel Line: Florida State by 34 1/2; 58
      Vegas Line: Florida State by 28 1/2; 62
      Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-28 1/2); Under

      Game 125-126: Stanford at Arizona State (7:45 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 112.863; Arizona State 111.963
      Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1; 61
      Vegas Line: Arizona State by 3; 56
      Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+3); Over

      Game 127-128: Ohio State vs. Michigan State (8:15 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 115.123; Michigan State 106.465
      Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 8 1/2; 47
      Vegas Line: Ohio State by 5 1/2; 51 1/2
      Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-5 1/2); Under

      Game 129-130: Utah State at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 95.302; Fresno State 91.778
      Dunkel Line: Utah State by 3 1/2; 66
      Vegas Line: Fresno State by 4; 61
      Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+4); Over


      • #4
        Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

        Inside the stats: NIU, OSU expectations high

        Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

        Here is this week’s report. Enjoy the games.

        High Expectations

        When Alabama defeated Florida, 28-21, to win the first ever SEC championship game in 1992, it signaled the start of Division-1 college football conference title games.

        This week finds a total of seven FBS conference championship games on tap, with no less than two undefeated teams – Northern Illinois and Ohio State, along with four other squads each owning one loss on the season, namely Auburn, Fresno State, Michigan State and Missouri, dotting this year’s itinerary.

        The staggering effect of what happens in conference championship games with teams who have dominated on the scoreboard the last two seasons is eye-opening, to say the least.

        Our database confirms the notion, finding that teams in conference title games who managed to win 19 or more of their last 22 games are just 9-19-2 ATS since the inception of these championship games.

        This week finds Florida State, Northern Illinois, Ohio State and Stanford going up against tough odds.

        Worse, when favored by 17 or less points, and playing off a win, these ’pips’ dip to 1-13-2 ATS in these title game roles.

        The Huskies and the Buckeyes expectations may be as high as a Benjamin Franklin kite this week, but the likelihood of rewarding their backers is akin to catching lightning in a bottle.

        Exxon Valdez

        Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.

        These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 25-32 ATS overall this season, including 20-22 in CFB and 5-10 in the NFL.

        According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Memphis and Rutgers on the college front, along with Kansas City, NY Jets and Tampa Bay in the NFL.

        Absolutely Overwhelming

        Our NFL Totals Tipsheet has shared the success of OVERS in non-conference games.

        A 2-0 sweep last week moves the record on these, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) to 41-13 OVER on season, including a mind-blowing 19-3 OVER the last seven weeks.

        This week’s OVER achievers include the Kansas City-Washington, Minnesota-Baltimore, Buffalo-Tampa Bay and NY Giants-San Diego games.

        Stat Of The Week

        Fresno State is 1-15-1 ATS in games after losing straight-up as a favorite.


        • #5
          Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

          Al McMordie

          5* Missouri

          ELITE INFO

          Michigan St


          • #6
            Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013


            CFB Side - Saturday, Dec 7 2013 10:00PM
            129 Utah St. 3.5(-110) vs 130 Fresno St. triple-dime bet

            "CFB GOM" (3.5*) on UTAH ST. +3.5


            • #7
              Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

              Brian Edwards

              20* CFB SEC Championship Game



              • #8
                Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

                Larry Ness

                Conference Championship GOY total I

                Ohio St/Mich St. OVER


                • #9
                  Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

                  Steve Nover

                  2*--Ariz st


                  • #10
                    Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013


                    3* Missouri


                    • #11
                      Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013


                      Big Dog - Oklahoma +10

                      Big 12 POW - Texas +15.5


                      • #12
                        Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

                        Your Bookies Money

                        5* ​Michigan St +5.5


                        • #13
                          Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

                          Joe Gavazzi






                          • #14
                            Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

                            River City Sharps

                            3 Units Marshall -6.5


                            • #15
                              Re: Free Service Plays Saturday 12/7/2013

                              LA Syndicate

                              Under Oklahoma
                              Arizona State & Over
                              Utah State