Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

NHL Game 7 Betting Strategy

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • NHL Game 7 Betting Strategy

    This article is from Nite Owl Sports, a handicapper on our sponsor's site Top Ten Cappers. Thought people here would find it interesting as it's pretty in-depth.

    Avoiding Puck Line and Pricey $ Line in NHL Game 7

    Let's say that like many hockey fans who have watched this exciting final round of the Stanley Cup playoffs with great interest, both from a viewing and wagering standpoint, you have seen the home team win all six games between these two combatants and have come to the conclusion that Detroit playing at home is the way to go in game 7. But then you look at the money line price, which opened at a high -165 on Wednesday and has climbed to an even higher -180 or 185 since then, and you ask yourself if you really want to risk nearly 2/1 odds against this talented, hard trying and resilient Pens team. And then you look at the generous "plus odds" for Detroit on the "puck line," but cannot get excited about having to lay - 1.5 goals (where you lose with a one goal Detroit win) against a team as good as the Pens, and in a game 7 no less, where both teams will likely play pretty "close to the vest," wanting to avoid the "big mistake." So assuming you don't want to get involved with a totals bet, and you like Detroit and want "action" on the game, but don't like either the high money line price or having to lay - 1.5 goals on the puck line, what do you do? If you are in that boat, read on, because you are not "stuck" with just those choices -- there are other betting alternatives that you can utilize for this game.

    First of all, let me make clear that I do not view sports betting as some gentlemanly form of "wagering." Rather, I see it as a daily "street fight" with the sports books and their line makers, where we as sports handicappers and players should play "fair and square," but also should use every weapon and angle at our disposal to win as many of those "fights"as possible. I have been handicapping and betting the NHL for over 20 years, and until this year have been content to limit my wagers to the conventional money line and puck line plays, even when the rules were changed after the "lost season" of 2004-05 (due to the season long "work stoppage") so that even every regular season game now must ultimately have a winner and a loser, even if it means determining that by a shootout if no goals are scored in the 5 minute overtime period, thus making one of my favorite types of NHL picks (+ goal dogs) a thing of the past.

    But that was until I found out that some offshore books (like bookmaker.com) had begun to offer so-called "three way lines," where one could once again bet those + goal dogs as well as -1/2 goal faves, but with the betting result determined by the score at the end of regulation time (and thus in games that were tied at the end of regulation, disregarding what happened in the OT and in the post OT shootout, if there was one). They also allowed players to make a so-called "draw bet" (betting that the game would be tied at the end of regulation time), usually at 3/1 odds (depending on how likely it was that the game would go to OT, which in turn depended on how evenly matched the teams were). With these options available, I was able to develop two alternative strategies for betting on medium to heavy priced NHL faves that I thought were likely to win, either in regulation or in OT, while avoiding both the "heavy" money line price (with the "regulation only" - 0.5 goal puck line typically about "50 cents" lower than the conventional money line) and the -1.5 goal puck line. And both of those strategies are "tailor-made" for a game like this game 7, if you like the Red Wings but not the conventional options (the "heavy" money line price or the -1.5 goal puck line) for betting them in this game. But to use these alternative strategies, one must have access to three way lines.

    So let's see how these strategies would work with Red Wings for this game, given the various (conventional and alternative) lines.

    Strategy #1 - medium risk and exposure, good upside - this strategy uses three separate bets on the game, and it assumes that the medium to heavy priced favorite (in this case Detroit, a -175 ML fave) will win by at least one goal, in regulation or in OT

    First bet - money line bet on Detroit as a -175 favorite, risking 3.5 units to win two units

    Second bet - regulation only puck line bet on Detroit at -1/2 goal, risking 2.5 units to win two units at odds of -125 (odds on regulation only puck line bets typically about 50 cents less than money line odds). To win this bet, Detroit must win in regulation, so if game goes to OT, this bet loses. But we protect ourselves from losing this bet #2 with bet #3 below.

    Third bet - a "draw bet" at +300 odds, risking one unit to win 3, betting that the score will be tied at end of regulation (and a draw bet wins if the game goes to OT, regardless of which team ultimately wins - a nice position to be in for watching the OT, knowing that you have already won that bet, regardless of the ultimate outcome).

    So here is what would happen with the three most likely results, using betting strategy #1:

    Best result - Detroit wins in regulation by one goal or more - we win our regulation only puck line bet for plus two units, we win our money line bet for plus two units, but we lose our draw bet for minus one unit, ending up with net +3 units

    Almost as good result - Detroit wins in OT - we win our money line bet for plus two units, we win our draw bet for plus three units, but lose our regulation only puck line bet for minus 2.5 units-- net +2.5 units

    Small loss result - Detroit loses in OT - we lose our money line bet for minus 3.5units, we win our draw bet for plus three units (because a draw bet wins if the game goes to OT, regardless of which team ultimately wins), and lose our regulation only puck line bet for minus 2.5 units-- net minus 3 units

    Of course there is always the "worst case scenario," which one must take into account and evaluate, regardless of how remote they believe that possibility is with one of their "winning" picks. In this case, the worst result would be if Detroit loses the game in regulation, in which case we would lose all three bets, for a total loss of minus 7 units on the game.

    Now let's see what bets we would make, and the most likely results, using betting strategy #2:

    Strategy #2 - less risk and exposure, but smaller return - this strategy also assumes that the medium to heavy priced favorite will win by at least one goal, in regulation or in OT, but unlike strategy #1, in order to reduce risk and potential down side, it does not utilize a money line bet, and instead uses just two separate bets on the game -- the regulation only puck line bet and draw bet. Specifically, using Detroit as our example:

    First bet - regulation only puck line bet on Detroit at -1/2 goal, risking 2.5 units (at -125 odds) to win two units (to win this bet, Detroit must win in regulation, so if game goes to OT, this bet loses). But we protect ourselves from losing this bet #1 with bet #2 below.

    Second bet - draw bet at +300 odds, risking one unit to win 3, betting that the score will be tied at end of regulation.

    So here is what happens with the three most likely results, using betting strategy #2:

    Best result - Detroit wins in regulation by one goal or more - we win our regulation only puck line bet for plus two units (we have no money line bet) but we lose the draw bet for minus one unit, ending up with net +1 unit

    Decent result - Detroit wins in OT - we lose our regulation only puck line bet for minus 2.5 units (we have no money line bet) but win on our draw bet for plus three units, to cancel out that 2.5 unit loss and win half a unit -- net plus 0.5 units

    Decent result - Detroit loses in OT- same result as if Detroit wins in OT -- we lose our regulation only puck line bet for minus 2.5 units, but win on our draw bet for plus three units, to cancel out that 2.5 unit loss and win half a unit -- net plus 0.5 units

    Again there is always the "worst case scenario," that being if Detroit loses the game in regulation, in which case we lose both bets (minus 2.5 units on our regulation only puck line bet, and we also lose the draw bet for minus one unit), but our loss is only 3.5 units (half of the 7 units which would be lost in the worst case scenario with strategy #1).

    So if you are squeamish about the minus 7 unit exposure of strategy #1, then use strategy #2 to reduce that exposure to just 3.5 units, but realize that your maximum "upside" (with strategy #2) is limited to plus one unit, as opposed to a maximum upside of plus 3 units with Strategy #1.

    So there you have it - two alternative strategies for betting the favored Red Wings in this game (assuming that is the side you like), one with a better potential upside and more exposure, and the other with limited exposure but less of an upside - but both, in our opinion, being better strategies for betting the Wings in this game than either of the conventional options (the "heavy" money line price or the -1.5 goal puck line).

    Good luck.

    This article is from Nite Owl Sports at Top Ten Cappers.
    Last edited by The Bartender; 06-11-09, 04:31 PM.

  • #2
    Re: NHL Game 7 Betting Strategy

    Nice stuff, Bartender.
    Not a hockey better myself, but use similiar strategys on other sports.
    Regards, WiseGuy1
    EL JEFFE --- “Turning and turning in the widening gyre, the falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, the blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere the ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NHL Game 7 Betting Strategy

      Wise, that doesn't surprise me :) You are obviously not an inside-the-box thinker.

      Comment

      Working...
      X