Here we will post great MLB systems and info to remember year-to-year.

Here are a couple of basis things I utilize:

F/A Ratio .0+
One calculates the F/A (For & Against) Ratio for each team by dividing the Runs For / Runs Against.
For example, a past game between the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers looked like follows:

TEX - RF = 5.42
TEX - RA = 6.48

DET - RF = 4.74
DET - RA = 5.19

TEX 5.42/6.48 = 0.82
DET 4.74/5.19 = 0.91

In the second step, one subtracts the results for both teams:

TEX: 0.82-0.91 = -0.09; DET: 0.91-0.82 = +0.09.

A team that has a value of >0 and which Money Line is not lower than -150, you have a play. (for this calculation's purpose: -160 is less than -150)

F/A Median 1.5+
This serves as an additional criteria. The calculation goes at follows: (RunsAgainst – 4.70) + (Runs For – 4.80).
If the value is 1.50 or higher this is a play.
Again, the Money Line should be -150 or better.
***********************************************

Total of 10 or more, Bet the over where the ML for the home team is between +125 and -125
***********************************************

HH-games (HH = higher/higher) are games where both teams' defense has allowed more runs than the opposition's offense has scored.
Last year, the "HH"-dogs scored +58.87 units.
***********************************************

few questions and the systems listed above... anyone have any data to back these up.. also on the FA 1.5 the mathe would be easier if yo jus did F+A-9.5...or rather if F+A is 11 or higher then it falls as a play... thanks guys

please give an example of the fa 1.5 im not following correctly

tia

I agree baseball is as close at it gets to roulette, in respect to major sports betting. Numbers are our best friend for the most part. I think the idea of long term numbers makes sense in most instances. Though, my thought is that not all circumstances will back up the long term figures. Loss of key offensive players, additions/subtractions of pitchers in the starting rotation, and personel changes in the bullpen, can make a club a whole new animal the very next year. I think it comes down to, every day some guys hit real well and some guys pitch real well, taking the favorite seems to work about as well as taking the dog. That's probably not the right figure, but you dont see a more even game day in day out in basketball or football.

Just some thoughts.

Of course, I look at the long standing trends everyday, as we should look at all numbers in the game.

Let me preface this statement on the fact I have had little time to handicap due to my graduate studies. I liked this site so I decided to stop by for a break and it is my pleasure to briefly share my successful strategy with you.

MLB is a game of streaks! Pitchers get hot and so do hitters and then they stumble for a week or two and struggle. Ride winners until they cool and hammer losers until they get better.

In baseball, all it takes it one bad bounce, poor placement ona pitch, missing the cut-off man to make a differnce in the outcome of a game. Teams that are struggling find amazing ways to lose games.

Teams that are hot always find a different solution to get the same outcome...A WIN! .230 hitters hit the walk-off homer, managers pinch hit for a batter and the pinch hitter somehow gets on base, or the team they are playing(the current losers) stumble on the basepaths.

Look around a sportsbook and watch how people lose. Have you ever heard, "I can't believe those friggin Cubbies, how in the hell did they muff up that double play?" Why bet on teams that are struggling? Do not let the + money entice you.

Even Johan Santana, Derek Jeter and Jake Peavy will fall on hard times. Jump off the train when hit slows and get back on it when things get going again.

My point is simple:

Bet on hot teams(= or better than 7-3 of 10) vs cold teams(= or worse than 3-7 of 10).

So a DET-140 winners of 7 of last 10 plays a NYY+135 who happen to be losers of 7 of last 10 exhibits a play on the Detroit Tigers.

****Caveat****

The money line does play a huge factor and if your team is a -150 or above, I am not betting that game for even hot teams lose. Betting them as a dog is so rare, but worth the risk!!!!

Let's take a look at today's games to help you out....

The teams are hot...LAA, TEX, MIL and DET(lost last 2)
These teams are cold...NYY, OAK, WAS, CIN, and SF.

LAA-245...too high no play
MIL-156...too high no play
TEX+182 a play! (They are playing DET). When too hot teams go off against each other, take the dog!

These games go against:

NYY...a play on BAL+125
OAK...no play on CLE-166 too high
WAS...no play on ATL-220 too high
CIN...a play on PHI-135
SF...a play on SD+100

So here are Derty D's plays for today: (list all pithcers)

TEX+182
BAL+125
PHI-135
SD+100

That's it. Easy, quick and most important, profitable!

We'll see!

BOL to all!

Derty D

Hey Fellas,

Trying to come up with winning systems has always intriuged me. I really enjoy reading and analyzing other players thoughts and reasoning. My personal take on Baseball betting systems is certianly bet on good teams but bythesame token one must always be careful of laying to much juice! I looked at a sample of the Angels, Yankees and Red sox dating back 5 years ago so from the 2002 season until the present time. These are three teams that have been pretty solid in terms of winning in that time frame. With the exception of the Yankees this year, none of these teams have had a losing streak of over 6 games in five years. The Yanks did lose 7 this year. So here are the keys to what I have come up with-

1) Bet on good teams that are fighting for pennants-

2) Set a target that you are trying to win on this team ie- $25.00

3) If juice is way to high consider taking the runline depending where you are in your series of bets. If it is early in the series you may be able to afford laying som extra juice on the ml

4) never bet more than three consecutive losses in a particular series ie lets say you betting the Red Soxtrying to make $25.00 and they are -170 you would have to lay roughly 43 to make 25 ok you lose now your series looks like this 25, 43, next game Red sox are -150 now you have a choice either go for it and try to make your 25 which means add your loss + 25 and fire away so now you are tryingto win 68 @ -150 so this would be roughly 102 to make $68 if you win your finished start back to origonal bet to make $25 if lose your series now looks like this 25, 43, 102- now here is where the fun starts remember never bet more that three previous losses consider your target a loss. If you add up the numbers you will get $170 remeber if juice is to high consider runline- Let use another example we now must erase three previous losses and Boston is -230 in their next game & the RL is -110 this would be a good spot to play th run line instead of risking 396 to make 170 you risk 187 with the runline a bit more comfortable if you win series over if lose write down your loss remember never bet more than 3 consecutive losses on 1 play. If the team you were betting on went on a terrible losing streak and the amount became extremely high consider dividing by 4 even 6. for example lets say the total amount of previous 3 losses was $1200 which is very high! Well if you divide by 6 your series would like this 200,200,200,200,200,200. So instead of betting 1200 you will be betting 600.of course you will need an extra win to end the series but more safe. Using this strategy allows a good team to go on major losing streaks and over the long haul you can still make money! Another way to look at this is Just keep betting your target amount until you get your first win. After you get your first win and then proceed to chase your previous three losses this is safer but may take more time to bank your target. If you reamain disciplined you can win money using this strategy! It is up to you what your target is going to be at can be as little as $10 UP TO $100 or more,just remember to bet what you can afford! I also looked at how often good teams have covered the run line after a series of losses meaning 4, 5 ,or 6 in a row and in most cases the run line has covered.

5) Remember always write down your losses and keep accurate records of the teams you are betting on! Good teams and good pitching find ways to win over time.

6) You may even want to wait until a good team loses 2 or 3 in a row before starting a series this can help keep wager amounts down. Remember patience is HUGE!

7) Good Luck to all and whatever methods you have come up with!

PS You will be surprised with how much money you can bank with Patience!

Take Care,

Cuse

love the system derty seems too easy... what kinda +units a week you looking at???

and cuse not to disrupt your system but me personally i dont chase but maybe 1 game then i move on... a unit loss is no big deal to me btting roughly 200 a game now... but chasing after a 200 dollar bet with like 24k on a losing streak is a huge deal

__________________
..............and don't forget they are 5-2 ATS in night games on astro turf in 2nd week in November in non-confrence away games vs. a left handed QB in the last 40 years when the line is between -5 and 5 coming vs a ranked opponent coming off a SU win as a dog and the total is over 36.5 when there was a NBA game played the night before and the temperature is between 40-70 degrees

ChAoS,

Yeah my man you would have to cut your unit wager way down and spread units around on good teams / good cappers. I am also a flat bettor using a $250.00 unit. I do the system for fun and to make some extra cash! I only use a $25 unit when betting this system. If a team or capper makes me 10 units in a given month I stop and wait until the next month. It is pretty fun my man-

GL-

Cuse

This system is so easy even a caveman can do it.

Only play on teams that won their prevous game...it's a game of streaks.

Only play on the pitcher with the better ERA...they will probably give up fewer runs.

Now that's going to give you too many games so you need to narrow it down to a select few. Choose whatever system you're comfortable with. For me, I use the pitcher's biorhythms. Frito was talking about Brad Penny's miserable performance a little while back. Had you checked out his bios, you wouldn't have been surprised that he performed poorly. He was either crossing from positive to negative or negative to positive in the 3 major bio categories that measure how he's doing physically, emotionally, and intellectually.

Had you played this system yesterday (Wednesday) you would have played Baltimore...winner, Milwaukee...winner, Cubs...winner, SD...winner, Atl...winner, CWS...winner, Min...loser, LAD...loser.

Thank you ChAos, but believe me, nothing is easy....

There are often teams in the 7-3 or 3-7 stretch, but no guarantees, hence, there is no set amount of units you can expect per week.

My guess is somewhere around 5 units per week, but that's only a guess and it could be less or more.

Try it on paper for a month and see for yourself!

Incidentally, SD+100 won, BAL+125 won, PHI-135 lost and TEX did not play, but lost the next day....actually a winning first day, but the TEX loser brought me into the red the following day.

I don't Martingale personally anymore, but anyone that likes to Martingale. Try this: Start at the beginning of a home series on a team that had one of the top ten records in baseball the previous year in which the first game of the series is a -170 or higher favorite. So basically you are starting your Martingale on a good team playing at home as a big favorite. It was 65-0 in 2006. I dont have the exact numbers in front of me but I believe it has one loss in like 30 plays this year.

Is it seriously that simple?

anyone has used it? I like to hear some testimonials

__________________
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire