good stuff chickman all these look solid in the trends!! except for nj looks a little shaky:
(Underdog is 6-2 n the lst 8 meetings...Devils are 1-4 n their last 5overall.. Leafs are 22-5-1 in their last 28 in the second game of a home-and-home situation) i may stay away... but the devils did just aqquired illya kovalchuk.. this should help them mucho!!
Hey kids.......
I've been slaying my dragons of late causing me not to be around as much as I would like chillin with ya'll
Betting too seems like the past few weeks whatever I touch turns to dirt while I haven't had the full capacities and resources to be 100% with my gameplan on the war against the books.
I have been stopping by and checking things out now and then
Yup those lines are getting up there as expected
One thing I am learning all this is using RC's formula as a foundation filter then from there to further capp into each matchup.
That could of saved us from some losses for those just blindly taking any team that qualifies.
This system seems good so far and I can't wait till next year when we would have more of a grasp on things so we can optimize more units out of this.
Zoctch's too +1.5 angle seems to work too but I still don't have time yet to look back to at least Dec with my records to see if in the long run applying that angle would be worth it too
Alright guys........ Keep up the good work and look to see ya'll around soon enough after I handle my business
Hey everyone, I've just been following this thread for the past couple weeks, but I'm gonna jump on in now. I really like this system. Simple and effective.
I realize we're betting favourites here, and so the moneyline odds aren't that great. Some people do the "win in regulation" (no OT) and others "puckline -1.5". I decided to track the plays from this thread and see which method is most profitable.
This doesn't include every game within the dates listed since sometimes nobody posted the day's plays, but I'm sure it'll be close enough.
So it looks like straight up is best, but the odds are better for the other two methods. After looking at several games, I found that (at least at my book), you will earn approximately 60% more on REGULATION when compared to STRAIGHT UP. Similarly, you will earn approximately 80% more on PUCKLINE -1.5 when compared to REGULATION. I used -200 as the "standard" STRAIGHT UP odds. I'm not sure if this is a good average or not, so the profit/units won below could differ from real life, though it should still compare the methods effectively. I'm assuming the bettor bets 1 unit on each game.
STRAIGHT UP (at avg. odds of -200)
1 unit bet = 0.5 units won
0.5 units x 63W = 31.5 units won
31.5 units won - 22 units lost = +9.5 units
REGULATION (0.5 x 160% = 0.8)
1 unit bet = 0.8 units won
0.8 units x 58W = 46.4 units won
46.4 units won - 27 units lost = +19.4 units
PUCKLINE -1.5 (0.8 x 180% = 1.44)
1 unit bet = 1.44 units won
1.44 units x 46W = 66.24 units won
66.24 units won - 39 units lost = +27.24 units
So even though you've only won 54% of your plays, it looks like PUCKLINE -1.5 is the most profitable method. To put this stuff in perspective, say you have a $200 bankroll, and you risk 5% per game ($10). Here's your profit using the different methods:
Using PUCKLINE -1.5, you more than doubled your bankroll in less than 2 months!
I also tracked the results according to the...chance of winning percentage? I dunno what you call it, but the 25 and higher thing. I was hoping it would give us some info and trends for the 25-29, 30s and 40+ ranges, and then we could choose our bets accordingly. However, there doesn't appear to be any real strong trends. Here's the results though, just in case someone wants to dive deeper into it. (Quite a few times the day's plays were posted, but the qualifying percentage wasn't given, so I couldn't track those specific games for this part.)
25-29 SU: 19-4 25-29 Reg: 17-6 25-29 PL: 12-11
30-39 SU: 19-12 30-39 Reg: 18-13 30-39 PL: 15-16
40+ SU: 11-3 40+ Reg: 10-4 40+ PL: 7-7
Anyways, sorry for the long post, just wanted to explain myself so everyone could understand. We all know it's about winning money, not games.
Good luck!
Oh, and btw, Pittsburgh was a play tonight and they won by 2! Another winner on the puckline!
Okay I was looking at the moneyline odds and I think I'm being a tad optimistic. If the average odds were -250, the puckline -1.5 would yield +14 units, or $140 for the $10 bettor. Still not bad. Regardless, the puckline still looks like it'd probably be the most profitable.
Yea great stuff there schouw, I actually started taking note of the pluck line only this week, thinking something could be there. saved me time u did.. thanks..
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