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Re: game chatter 7/10
cubs/reds under 11(even)...this seems a little high here. Winds blowing out at wrigley during day game means over right? Not necessarily the case, over has been about 50/50 when winds are 10+ and ump has 8.8 RPG tick with 10 of 17 unders. Reds have hit way below the Mendoza line(.200BA) for last 3 and are hitting .221 in last few games vs lefties(duke,lannan,maholm,and laffey..not exactly carlton, santana, fernando there). Arroyo is a 2nd half pitcher(always has been) and has started this half off stellar albeit vs cleve and nats. He has allowed 1 run in 10 IP last 2 times on the bump.
tor/bal over 8.5 this is a trends play not just a #'s play. 11of the last 12 games between these 2 teams have gone over. 4 out or 6 over for guthrie .O's have played over 7 of last 9 and toronto 5 of last 7. O's pitching has allowed 46 runs in last 6 games while Jays have allowed 45 in last 7.Both pens have been spent as starters haven't been going deep and it shows as both pens have had a 6+ era last 7 days
angel/texas under 9.5 ..While this is a series that has gone over lately, this series has proven that unfamiliarity breeds unders as the 2 texas starters making their MLB debuts shut down the LAA offense which had been clicking. Tonight you have Lackey on a bounceback from his beating at the hands of the Jays. Lackey is 4-1 with a 1.40 era and a .92 whip on the highway this year. He has shut down #'s vs all rangers except for Kinsler(5-12 2 hr) and young(23-66 2 hr). Feldman has been a pleasant surprise for the rangers as he has a 3.2 era and a 1.12 WHIP at home. In his last 5 at Arlington he has gone 33 IP giving up just 8 runs(2.2 era) 22hits and 11 BB for a 1.103 WHIP. Only question for me is can Feldman go 7 to not expose a pen that pitched 6 inn last night. Based on past performances I think he can go at least 6 or 7. Ump averages 8.58 RPG and 11 of 18 have hit under.
white sox(-1/2 run 1st 5 inn)(+135)..buehrle on bounce back here as he gave up 4 runs in his last start. B4 that he had given up on 5 runs in 5 starts totaling 39 inn. 16-6 lifetime vs royals. #'S say he owns them..buck 5-34(.147),butler and gordon 1-5,dejesus 7-39(.179),german 2-14(.143). the only 2 who have solid stats vs buerhle are grudzalanek and teehan but neither of them have real power so others have to be on base to score runs. Greinke has tough stats vs sox hitters..cabrera 3-10,crede 9-23(.391),dye 8-26(.308),pierzynski 7-17(.412),swisher 3-8(.375),uribe 5-16(.313). wont take whole game due to pen situation with sox having no effective closer right now.
Last edited by lillefty; 07-10-08 at 04:29 PM.
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