8-29-08 Im putting up my stimulus check,my car title,and my years savings of Viagra,on Barak Obama at -175 !!!!! Its my lock of the year !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
With the announcement of Sarah Palin as McCain’s VP running mate, I just have to ask what the hell? Is he giving up? So the Republicans are just taking the lack of experience card right off the table huh? How can you continue to hit Obama on lack of experience now when McCain has picked a running mate 3 years younger than him? Two years ago, Palin was part-time mayor of a village of 7,000. Today, she’s supposedly ready to step in to run this country in the eventuality that Sen. McCain can no longer perform those duties? Uh huh. Obama picked his running mate based on who he believed was the best choice, not to kowtow to any group or party base. McCain has done exactly the opposite of that. He has picked a running mate simply to mollify the extreme religious right. She is very pro-life. She is a creationist. She thinks Creationism and Evolution should be taught side by side in public classrooms. She is to the far right on every major topic. To top it off she says she doesn’t know what the VP does. In an interview just a month ago, she dissed the job, saying it didn’t seem “productive.” In fact, she said she doesn’t know what the vice president does. Larry Kudlow of CNBC’s “Kudlow & Co.” asked her about the possibility of becoming McCain’s VP. Palin replied:“As for that V.P. talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the V.P. does every day? I’m used to being very productive and working real hard in an administration. We want to make sure that that V.P .slot would be a fruitful type of position, especially for Alaskans and for the things that we’re trying to accomplish up here for the rest of the U.S., before I can even start addressing that question.” This is the biggest political risk I ever remember. I love it because Obama is what this country needs right now but I can't get over how poor I think this choice is.
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The only reason he picked her, I think, was to take Hilliary's voters. Trust me guys, I told my friends months ago Obama would be our next president!!!!!! CHANGE or SAME THANG???????????????????????
This woman is still breast feeding, where the hell is Mc Cains mind, up his ***? I love to see O Reily, and Sean H really speak from the heart and not from the mouth as I think they will praise this pick, but then wonder the same thing I just posted. What the hell is this guy thinking, a mayor of 7,000 a heartbeat away form running this country.Nice post ATV.
The only reason he picked her, I think, was to take Hilliary's voters. Trust me guys, I told my friends months ago Obama would be our next president!!!!!! CHANGE or SAME THANG???????????????????????
I think this is right. If Rove Jr. thinks the key to winning is to win over a good portion of Hillary's ardent supporters, then this would be a strategy. If you listened to Palin's speech today, she pandered right to them. She made a huge point of thanking Hillary - and got a huge applause. Republicans cheering Hillary?!? Never thought I'd see that!
8-29-08 Im putting up my stimulus check,my car title,and my years savings of Viagra,on Barak Obama at -175 !!!!! Its my lock of the year !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hate politics and the great debate but I even must admit Obama's speech did touch me last night, truth or not. I think he is a clean cut guy and someone that will take care of some of the issues we are facing. This is far from a racial thing. Black, white, green, blue, it don't matter to me. He deserves to win but it all depends on the majority vote. Every vote I have made on the prez has been a winner and I think my vote is going to Obama.
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I am a political Buff. I have never been wrong in selecting the next President or selecting which President will pick which VP within one week of them deciding. I follow politics to the tee and am a firm Independent.
If you remember, I put down a good chunk of change on John McCain back in February earlier this year and got him at +175 to win the Presidency. I also made a heavy wager on John McCain to beat Romney in Florida because I saw Governor Christ changing his endorsement from Rudy to McCain, and of course, he did, and that helped McCain clinch Florida and the Republica Nomination.
I think McCain's choice was Bold and frankly Brilliant.
The most important thing one should consider is that never underestimate your opponent. That is the first sign of stupidity.
In a time of Recession, in a time of 2 Wars, in a time of 8 years of Republican Rule, ANY DEMOCRAT should be up by about 10 points in the Polls.
Yet, when the DNC started, this election was a Dead Heat. Does this mean America is racist? No.
John Kerry lost. He was white. Al Gore lost, he was white. Michael Dukakis lost, he was white. The fact, is Barack Obama is the most liberal Senator of 2008. Everytime the Dems pick a President that is Liberal and away from the mainstream they lose. Refer to Gore, Kerry and Dukakis.
The last 2 Times the Dems picked a Moderate Democrat, and a southern Democrat at that, they have won.
Bill Clinton of Arkansas and Jimmy Carter of Georgia.
Having said this, Sarah Palin has More executive Experience than Senator Obama, Joe Biden and John McCain COMBINED.
McCain brings an incredible amount of foreign policy experience, as does Joe Biden. Palin brings Executive experience, which no one else between these 3 men and 1 woman bring.
I know many, many Hillary Supporters, my mother being included that will be swayed by this. They feel that the Media was Sexist, the DNC was Sexist and are furious with Barack Obama's campaign putting forth the idea that Bill Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro are somehow Racist. McCain was intelligent in not going with the status quo candidate and showed some balls and galls.
Sarah Palin is a reformer, very competent when it comes to Ethic reforms, has one of the highest approval of any Governor in the Union, taken on oil companies, Republicans and Democrats.
You think this woman is not a tough cookie? She defeated an INCUMBANT CURRENT Governor of Alaska in the Primary of Alaska, then defeated the past Democratic Governor of Alaska to win the Alaskan Governorship. That is incredibly difficult to do.
McCain is certainly not giving up, he just shook everything up. After all, the worst thing that can happen to Obama's campaign is to have media coverage wrestled away from him. The latest PEW Research survey came out stated that Obama received 63% more favorable coverage than Hillary Clinton and 72% more than John McCain. This is the Media's golden boy - and yet he cannot pull away.
There is a silent majority of conservatism in this country that never gets any attention. Why do you think Republican talk radio is so popular. Keep in mind I voted for Bill Clinton in the First Election and am a Moderate Independent.
Remember, Obama was Senator for 5 Months and he has been running for President for 18 Months. If he loses this election, it is well known to political followers that he is going to seek the Governorship of Illinois. He would have run for President 4 times longer than he actually served in the Senate.
Let's look at Senator Obama's flip-flop - wanting change and picking a Senator that has been in Washington for more than 30 years. I like Joe Biden - a lot in fact - but it is contrary to his position. Sarah Palin is the biggest outside for change there is between these 4, besides, the Governorship of Alaska is a long way from Washington D.C.
Also, let's not forget that Barack was up by 9 points in the polls 3 weeks ago and has been slipping consistently. People barely know John McCain in many ways, he has name recognition, but the more publicity he gets, which the media does not give him, the better he will do.
Look at the Rick Warren Faith and Values Forum that he was a part of. People were amazed at how well we he did, short, concice and to the point. He got a 5 point jump just from that forum, now imagine the Deabates.
Sarah Palin is known as a Barracuda from her days as Point Guard of the State Championship Alaskan Basketball Team. She is an attack dog that defeated an Incumbant Republican Governor in the Primary - that is incredibly difficult to do and the Previous Democratic Governor of the State to win the Governorship - that is better than any one of these candidates have done as the road she has taken with respect to political contests was more difficult. Barack disqualified his State Senator Opponents because of paper registration irregularities and had Senator Tom Ryan's divorce records come before the public in order to get him to resign. His only real race, Hillary Clinton, which he did win, but had the huge help of the Media and the DNC.
I think the choice is bold and will help with the Base. Do I know who I'm voting for, No. But, I do know that the choice deserves more insight than what people are giving. Obama could have gotten an 8 point bump in picking Hillary, he didn't. He very well might regret. The latest realclearpolitics poll shows that if the election was held today with no tossup states, Obama would win by One state - Colorado. Of course, that is by a 0.3% margin. Anything can happen and frankly, I think this fall's election is a tossup.
Remember, Obama was up by 100 electoral votes and 9 points, 3 weeks ago, much has changed. The last CNN poll showed him in a deadheat with McCain and up by 8 electoral votes (1 state). Yes, he should get a boost from the Convention. But the Republicans have yet to have their convention as well.
It is Risky, but I can understand what McCain has done, his message of change with a washington outsider, the only one in this campaign. She cleaned up Alaska, and now she will look to help McCain. My +175 on McCain back in February still stands in a tossup election. If Obama would have picked Evan B. he could have very well won Indiana, a red state which could have turned blue with a 2 term Governor and Senator. But, he didn't pick that either.
Once again, I understand what McCain has done and history has not been nice to the top 5 Liberal Senators of the Modern era, Gore, Kerry, Dukakis all lost. When the Dems have come to the Center with Moderate Democrats such as Clinton from Arkansas and Carter from Georgia they won. It seems they would learn, but we'll see how it plays out.
I am looking forward to the Debates before making my decision, but I commend McCain on a bold decision.
Also, before casting my vote, I will wait and see what the Republicans do at their convention. I simply will not vote for a candidate after hearing one party's convention and not hearing the other's.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
As always IC, uve got a good write up!! I placed my bet today on Obama. I am an independent also, But truly believe Obama will pull away after the first debate. CHANGE or SAME THANG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As always IC, uve got a good write up!! I placed my bet today on Obama. I am an independent also, But truly believe Obama will pull away after the first debate. CHANGE or SAME THANG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good luck with your wager Rusty! The problem when Obama debates is that people expect too much from him in such debates, he does great on his own when delivering a speech, I think his expectations similar to Gore vs. Bush will be too high as people will be surprised at how well McCain does. Plus, I do think McCain has some of the same positions as Bush and not all have been wrong, heck it was McCain that favored the Surge when no one wanted to and some wanted immediate withdrawl, having said that:
McCain and Bush hate each other. Remember, it was the Bush Campaign that stated that McCain had an illegitimate black child in the South Carolina Primary of 2000. These 2 men had one of the most disgusting and dirtiest Election Primaries in 2000, with just slamming McCain with false accusations - it worked. McCain disagreed with the GOP in reference to Campaign Finance Reform, the Conduct of this war and Immigration, the Dems do have a nice slogan, but half of Americans don't believe McCain is the same as Bush, I tend to agree.
Of course, that doesn't mean I know which one I'm voting for yet.
But, I do believe McCain is not a 100% similar to Bush and half of Americans according to polls agree as well.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
A political move if there ever was one. What are her credentials to run the country if McCain kicks the bucket? I liked McCain until this move. Time for Change.
A political move if there ever was one. What are her credentials to run the country if McCain kicks the bucket? I liked McCain until this move. Time for Change.
Should be interesting Karl, looking forward to the debates, I am not making any preconcieved decisions, 64 days left and more surprises to come I'm sure.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
Everyone should read Free Lunch by David Cay Johnston. Your comb will be as red as mine. If OBAMA will do just half of what he says he'll do (with a democrat congress) we will be so much better off. CHANGE OR SAME THANG !!!!!!!!!
As always IC, uve got a good write up!! I placed my bet today on Obama. I am an independent also, But truly believe Obama will pull away after the first debate. CHANGE or SAME THANG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I've heard about "change" every fourth year of my life. Obama won't do jack **** different than get greased by all the interest groups like every one else and bicker with Congress. As soon as he is elected, if he is elected, he will begin campaigning for the next election. Partisan politics in this country sucks and the "permanent campaign" and corrupt campaign financing will prevent any progress in this country until something is done about it. The Dems and Republicans are so very close in the political spectrum anyway and all they do is try to tear each other down instead of trying to build the country up.
For a good read check out What Happened by Scott McClellan longtime Bush loyalist and former White House Press Secretary after Ari Fleischer
That being said, you are way off here in my very humble opinion.
While you are a master at predicting sports, and may have been right in past presidential elections, you were wrong earlier this year (predicting Hillary would beat Obama) and I sincerely hope you are wrong on your predictions in this thread.
What I think you underestimated back in the primaries, is the distaste for the status-quo and a strong desire for change, at least amongst half of this population. Obama represents the strongest promise of change relative to any other candidate still being discussed. Will that be enough? I don't know. I am scared about the fact that the polls show Obama's lead cut. It really scares me.
But, in regards to the facts, I have some questions for you.
You say this woman is a good choice? Do we really want someone this inexperienced one McCain stroke away from leading this country? You talk about "executive" experience. Let's not slice and dice. The fact is, she is extremely inexperienced and not ready to lead this country. Trying to pitch her as "more experienced" than the other candidates is a real stretch - a massive leap I personally cannot take.
Wait - does that "experience" discussion above sound familiar? Oh yeah, it's what McCain has been saying about Obama. So, which is it? Is experience important or not? Prior to this VP selection, it was clear that Republicans felt experience WAS important. Or at least that's what they were pitching. Unfortunately for them, they just took what was their #1 argument for not voting for Obama, away from themselves. They can't beat on Barack any more for his "lack of experience", and then go and select this woman as a running mate. It's extremely inconsistent and it arms Obama with an extremely potent reubuttal of any Republican "experience" barbs. So I ask you, does experience matter or not?
Secondly, you say McSame is not the same as Bush? If someone votes 95% the same, they are the same. McBush used to say he was different - a maverick. But, over the past four years he has quickly attached himself to Bush. He has quickly fallen in line as a puppet of the religious right and large corporations. If you look at the issues, he is very similar to Bush. In all truth, McCain is different than Bush. He is better - there is no one that can be worse. Bush is the worst president ever so McCain can't possibly be as bad. McCain has intelligence, so right there, he's got a leg up. That being said, the Democrats will beat McCain=Bush into the brains of the American public. This is a very simple, brilliant strategy that I fully support. In fact, they don't need to even talk about Barack, Biden or Palin. Bush is so bad, and our country has fallen on such hard times under this regime, that if the Democrats can just succeed at painting McCain as 4 more years of Bush, they should win. I am very pleased that the Democrats did such an awesome job at this in Denver. Now, they need to keep it up - increase it - make people sick of hearing it.
Given the fact that McCain is now tightly tied to Bush, and that this country has been horribly scarred by the sitting President, how anyone can vote for McCain is beyond my comprehension. That being said, I am very scared. For the people of this country to re-elect George Bush, anything is possible. I put nothing past the voters of this country.
The race appears to be a near tossup with Obama's lead having shrunk. From a monetary betting perspective, I'd love to be sitting with someone at +175 with those odds. But, given that my bet here is not monetary, but rather on the future of this country, I'll stick with the favorite, and hope this country comes to it's senses over the next 10 weeks.
Our friendship is deep and long and one of the reasons is because we love to discuss other stuff besides sports, and you know we will always be tight. I still don't know who I'm going to vote for, but I've going to wait until the convention for the Republicans close and wait for the debates before making any decisions.
I don't believe I ever said that Hillary would beat Obama, I simply said that she is the favorite to do so but once Florida and Michigan didn't count - it was over for her. Plus, the Dems Proportion system favors the Caucus winner which Obama was dominant win. If the election was winner take all similar to the Republicans, she would have won decisively. But, rules are rules. They each knew what they were before it started and he just beat here. Plain and simple.
Bear in mind no early favorite has done well in recent memory, heck, the favorites to battle it out in the end for this election 1.5 years ago was indeed Clinton vs. Giuliani - both lost. Also, Gore was early favorite against Bush - and Lost.
I don't believe she is more experienced than Joe Biden. However, this woman has been an Executive of one of the 50 states. Biden nor Obama can claim this. We speak of change, she is the only Washington Outsider. Heck, Obama once again has run for President 3 to 4 times as much as he has actually been a Senator. Plus, speaking of change, he picks a Senator who voted for the War in Iraq while he hammered Hillary for this judgement.
It is much different giving a speech in the Illinois State Senate as it was highly advantageous for him to make that speak when running for Senator, and it is much different actually voting in the Senate. 99 Senators voted for the War in Iraq, including Biden, Hillary, Dodd etc... Would Barack have fallen in line, very likely he would have. He had the added benefit of not making the choice, he himself admitted, he is not sure how he would have voted - my guess, with the other 99 other Senators.
He has won a State Senate seat and a Senate race by disqualifying his opponents, state senate by finding irregularities in the voting registration forms of 2 candidates. This was perfectly fair, but these are the facts. He opened up the divorce records of Senator Ryan, which brought open the fact of his affair with the once actress Ms. Ryan and consequently he dropped out of the race. Once again, it was fair to do so, but laying the facts out.
Palin is the only one out of these 3 to have balanced a Budget and Ran a State.
She has passed more legislations of Ethics than Biden, Obama and McCain. She has passed the most sweeping Ethics reform and went after the Good Old Boy Network of Alaskan politics.
Is she more competent than Obama and Biden? I don't know. But, I do believe she is competent.
Do I believe experience matters? Yes. The more important question is do the American People believe that Experience Matters? No. The political correct answer is yes, but the American People have always voted for the Candidate who they "like" much more than the Experience question.
Look at this:
Gore had much more experience than Bush - Bush Wins because he is more likeable.
Bush Senior, CIA, FBI, VP Experience, Current President of 4 Years greatly outweighed Clinton's Experience - Yet Clinton wins because Americans enjoyed his message of change, was younger and played the Saxophone.
Kennedy was much less experienced than Nixon who far outweighed him on legislative experience - Americans picked Kennedy as they liked him more.
Kennedy was much less experienced than the Legislation Guru himself in Lyndon Johnson - yet Americans chose Kennedy. Remmeber, it was Johnson that had the political prowess and will to pass Civil Rights Legislation - and eventually turned the Democrats of the Old to the Current policies of Republicans. Once the Civil Rights Legislation Passed it was the dawn of the death of the Democratic Rule in the South as it has slowly shifted and now is Embedded Red throughout the South.
In essence, Americans say they like experience more, but they vote for the More likeable Candidate. Heck, Hillary is More experienced and Barack won - once again he was more liked by most of the base (arguable however given that I believe Caucuses are undemocratic as people raise their hands rather than actually go to a booth and vote). But, once again, "Likeability" trumps "experience".
Likeability in the Modern Era has trumped Experience more often than not.
You say:
If you look at the issues, he is very similar to Bush. In all truth, McCain is different than Bush. He is better - there is no one that can be worse. Bush is the worst president ever so McCain can't possibly be as bad. McCain has intelligence, so right there, he's got a leg up.
Very true. I agree, McCain does have some smilar issues as Bush, but this is the Biggest "Maverick" the Republicans have to date. Remember, he is the one that tried to push the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Bill, he is the one that passed McCain-Feingold (another Democrat reaching across party lines) and he is the One that ardently proposed the Surge which eventually Democrats and Republicans Adopted.
Barack pales in comparison to the legislations McCain has Passed. Note, Biden has passed solid legislation against Violence for Women, but he is a VP. Palin has passed sweeping Ethic Reform Legislatoin in Alaska. In fact, the one individual that has passed Least Legislation out of all of these Candidates, is Barack Obama.
But, he is more likeable and that matters the Most in Modern American Presidential Politics.
You're right, if the Dems can portray, McCain and Bush as one, they have a great shot at winning.
But, this was the same party that couldn't portray Clinton's 8 years of Domestic Success into re-election for Al Gore.
And, this is the same Party that Couldn't defeat George Bush when he was running for a 2nd term.
Do I know who I'm voting for - No. But, it is a tough sell for the majority of Americans that McCain is exactly the same as Bush, it's just not true. Now, he is more similar to Bush than Barack, that is for certain.
I think she was a game-changing pick, something that shuffled the deck as McCain realizes one thing - He cannot win with Experience.
Experience once again Means nothing to the American Public, time and time again, Experience Loses to Likeability. At the end of the Day, the American People vote for the President, they have and will always will.
I don't think McCain is evil. I think all 4 of these individuals love their country. They have all spoken about "All of the Above" energy initiatives although Obama voted against it. I can see it going either way - One thing is for Certain, both of these choices are better than our current administration.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
IC love u man. You're missing the point. There is a fever in this land of ours. We need relief fron this trickle down economics ( beggin for the scraps). IT WILL HAPPEN,TRUST ME !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OBama(the best hope we have) wins because people are sick and tired of the "fatcats" having their way.(muther - uckers are ruining our country.)
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