No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio, and only two Democrats in recent history have done so. This is a state where blue-collar workers fear a contracting economy and the Iraq war remains unpopular.
Obama and McCain are running about even in the state: Obama was at 47 percent and McCain 45 percent in a CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll of registered voters conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 2. As the local economy has worsened in recent years, both campaigns see reason to redouble their efforts and focus on pocketbook issues.
While the poll shows them about even, I don't think it shows the reality. According to voter registrations, there are now 900,000 more Democrats in Ohio than Republicans.
General Conditions That Don't Favor Mccain
1. The republican scandals of late have rocked the party
2. The weakened economy including inflation, gas prices, the housing crisis, all of which is perceived to be bad because of Bush's policies.
3. We have had a two term republican president many consider the worst president in our history.
4. Democrats are taking back congress-even in republican territory.
5. Healthcare. Our system is embarrasing, there are many poorer nations with better healthcare.
6. Very unpopular Iraq war.
7. McCain's pick of VP currently is not allowed to speak to the press unless giving a speech written for her. Many rightly or wrongly believe its because she is so inexperienced in foreign affairs that it would be embarrasing for her to field questions from the press.
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January: +4.45 units, February: +.39 units, March +3 units, April +1.29 units, May +2.08 units, June +15.02 units, July +.4 units, August +.54 units, September +4.63 units, October +3.25 units, November +1.80 units (15 winning months in a row)
Hey vig, good luck with your wager. Those are all valid points. I would advise tracking the poll of polls which includes the Rasmussen Poll (the most trusted poll in America historically b/c they have been far more accurate than others).
The poll shows McCain having an edge of 0.6% - in fact, Rasmussen showed McCain winning by 5 points.
Also, Hillary defeated Obama in Ohio by 9% and it goes to show that he struggles against blue collar voters who still prefer Hillary over Obama (some wanting to defect and vote for McCain) and Sarah Palin rightly or wrongly has energized the base. This is why the Obama campaign is sending female surrogates including Hillary to help with the women who are flocking to Palin, heck, she helped raise the Georgia GOP 9 million in new donations just b/c people are so excited about her.
CNN is known be extremely biased towards Obama, even when he was running against Hillary, they were brutal towards her, of course, this is not to say Fox is incredibly biased towards McCain and the GOP and wrongly mischaracterizes Obama.
Thus, I trust neither CNN or Fox, I trust the nonpartisan Rasmussen Polling.
Conditions do favor Obama in a time of change, but McCain had a solid convention and closed a 9 point gap. It's a tossup more than ever now.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
I'm not afraid of the Republican base being energized in the least. These are religious whackos who were never going to vote for Obama anyway.
I don't get the Republican base loving what I term anti-intellectuals. They love the person they feel is just like them. It makes them feel like if luck had bounced a little differently their lives could have been better.
Notice that not once did McCain or anyone else for that matter during the entire convention mention the words "middle class." Well thats the people that will be turning out in droves and as long as they don't vote like they did 4 years ago, for the anti-intellectual, the guy you'd love to have a beer with, then Obama will win easily. In 04 Bush was the guy you'd love to have a beer with. This time around it is Palin who is the looks just like me candidate. She went to 5 colleges in 6 years, none of which I would have had a hard time getting into. She was a small town Mayor just a few months ago for a town with a population smaller than some streets around me. She's got a knocked up kid. She is in the middle of an ethics investigation for firing people for reasons unrelated to their job performance. Sound familiar? Isn't this the same exact scandal we just went through with the US Attorneys being fired? She would fit right in, no wonder Republicans like her. She's a perfect anti-intellectual.
So it comes down to people wising up. The anti-intellectual is not good for America. We should not be voting for someone to lead us because we would feel comfortable asking them if they want to head out to the bar. We should be voting for the smartest person we can find for the job. This time around that is Obama. Anyone who is paying attention can see that. He's on the right side of just about every issue. His entire argument is not to just insult the other party unlike the Republicans. He has real solutions to real problems. We didn't hear a solution to anything during the entire convention.
For instance the Republicans all got a good kick out of making fun of Obama for being a community organizer in his earlier years. HAHA, stupid Democrat that likes to help out his community. What a loser, huh? Silly Democrat that likes to make a difference.
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January: +4.45 units, February: +.39 units, March +3 units, April +1.29 units, May +2.08 units, June +15.02 units, July +.4 units, August +.54 units, September +4.63 units, October +3.25 units, November +1.80 units (15 winning months in a row)
I'm waiting for the debates Vig, good luck with your wager. I didn't appreciate them making fun of his community organizer job either that he was paid 11k for. gl with the wager bud.
__________________ Indiancowboy Researched Write-ups Every day.
GAME SET MATCH. How could you ever vote for McCain after seeing him get Barack'Rolled.
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January: +4.45 units, February: +.39 units, March +3 units, April +1.29 units, May +2.08 units, June +15.02 units, July +.4 units, August +.54 units, September +4.63 units, October +3.25 units, November +1.80 units (15 winning months in a row)
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