Cnotes 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[Cnotes53]

Western Conference Capsules
October 8, 2017

Teams are listed alphabetically with the Westgate SuperBook season win opening totals on 8/29 in parenthesis.

Dallas Mavericks (35.5) – The big news in the offseason was that rather than bringing new impact talent to the team, owner Mark Cuban decided instead to re-ink Dirk Nowitzki, Nerlens Noel and Yogi Ferrell. The new point guard this season, though, figures to be 19-year old Dennis Smith Jr. from NC State, the ninth pick in this year’s draft. His play in the Las Vegas summer camp drew comparisons to famous point guards like Derrick Rose, Penny Hardaway, and Steve Francis. While the core from last year’s team is largely in place, it was a team that managed to win only 33 games. That’s not good news in the fierce Western Conference.

Betting nugget: The Mavs are 2-12 SU and 1-12-1 ATS as favorites against .680 or greater division opponents since 2008.

Denver Nuggets (45.5) – The 40 wins registered by the Nuggets left them one game shy of Portland for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Season win-total 34.5 last year. The biggest offseason move was trading Danilo Gallinari to the L.A. Clippers and acquiring four-time All-Star Paul Millsap in return from Atlanta. Center Nikola Jokic exploded and was voted the league’s second most improved player (behind the Greek freak, Gianis Antetokounmpo. Aside from Jokic, the other strength is the team’s point guard position where Jameer Nelson, Jamal Murray, and Emmanuel Mudiay will be splitting minutes.

Betting nugget: Denver is 35-15-1 ATS as a dog off a loss since December of 2015, including 24-7-1 ATS away.

Golden State Warriors (67.5) – The icing on the cake in the Warriors’ 67-win regular season last year was its performance in the postseason where they lost only one game, in the NBA finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The bad news for the rest of the league is that this year’s roster looks a lot like last year’s with the exception of G Nick Young coming over from the Lakers. The only question remaining is whether a Cavs-Warriors IV showdown in on the horizon.

Betting nugget: The Warriors are 0-9 ATS as favorites of 9 or more points without rest against rested opponents.

Houston Rockets (55.5) – Houston represents the biggest jump of all team’s season win total from last year to this (Rockets 41.5 last year). It’s predicated largely on the fact that the Rockets recorded 55 regular season victories last season. Not factored in, however, is the loss of G’s Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams, which was done in order to bring Chris Paul in from the Clippers. Interestingly, other than the 56 wins they recorded two seasons ago you have to go back to the 1996-97 season find a Houston team that won more games than that number.

Betting nugget: Houston is 3-14-1 ATS as division road favorites of more than 7 or more points.

L.A. Clippers (43.5) – The 10-game drop from last year’s 53.5 win total is based largely in Chris Paul’s defection to Houston. Thus the question begs whether or not there is value at this reduced number. The additions of G’s Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams from the Rockets, along with F’s Danilo Gallinari (Nuggets) and Sam Dekker, adds plenty of punch. With Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan underneath it’s my feeling the ‘over’ may be one of the better season-win totals being offered this season.

Betting nugget: The Clippers are 6-24 SU and 8-22 ATS as home dogs against Western Conference opponents off a SUATS loss.

Los Angeles Lakers (33.5) – Is the Lakers 9 game hike from last year’s 24.5 win total a result of Lonzo Ball, or the departure of Timofey Mozgov (just kidding)? Either way, last year’s 26-season wins surpassed only the Phoenix Suns. In addition, while Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope head out to LA LA land, the loss of Nick Young and D’Angelo Russell cannot be underestimated. With the pressure squarely on rookie Ball’s shoulders, expect the purple-and-gold to remain stuck in their losing ways in the fierce Western Conference again this campaign.

Betting nugget: The Lakers are 8-16 ATS home on Sundays in non-division games, including 1-9 SUATS when not getting 5 or more points.

Memphis Grizzlies (37.5) – Losses from last year’s roster of Toy Allen, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter last year, with no draft picks this season and only the addition of Tyreke Evans shrunk the Grizzlies season win total from 43.5 last year to 37.5 this season. Randolph’s departure after with eight seasons leaves the team thin at power forward. Landing a playoff spot will be an accomplishment this season. They will go only as far as All-Star PG Mike Conley can carry them.

Betting nugget: Memphis is 7-21-1 ATS as division favorites against foes off a double-digit loss, including 0-7-1 ATS the last eight games.

Minnesota Timberwolves (48) – I read where the last time the Timberwolves made the playoffs was when Karl-Anthony Towns was just 8 years old. With the addition of Jimmy Butler and the presence of Andrew Wiggins, only the Golden State Warriors will feature a starting lineup with three players who averaged more than 20 points per game last season. A rise of 6.5 wins from last year’s 41.5-season win total might be a reach, though.

Betting nugget: The Wolves are 13-36 ATS as non-division home dogs, including 2-16 ATS as dogs of 6 or more points.

New Orleans Pelicans (39.5) – Newly acquired PG Rajon Rondo is on record as saying he thinks his job with the Pelicans will be the “easiest I’ve ever had.” That’s because he’ll be feeding Antonio Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and Jrue Holiday. The fact of the matter is the Pelicans won 34 games last season despite dropping their first 8 games right out of the gate, all while adjusting to Cousins joining the team in late February. Color this sleeper squad dangerous.

Betting nugget: The Pelicans are 29-8 ATS as division home dogs since 2007, including 25-2 ATS versus .580 or greater opponents.

Oklahoma City Thunder (51.5) – Yes, the power additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony put the Thunder just behind the Golden State Warriors as the team to beat in the West, but you’re not stealing anything, here, though as last year’s season win total was 45.5, and Anthony’s addition has raised the bar to 53.5 wins. So in one year, the franchise goes from it’s lowest moment with the defection of Kevin Durant to the Warriors to its most promising with the new Big Three now in place. Remember, while 54 wins look attainable on paper, life in the volatile Western Conference can be perilous. Be careful here.

Betting nugget: The Thunder is 25-9-1 ATS without rest following a loss against unrested opponents, including 10-1-1 ATS as a dog.

Phoenix Suns (28.5) – Top draft pick Josh Jackson, the No. 4 overall player in this year’s NBA draft, was impressive in the 2017 NBA Summer League, averaging 17.4 PPG and 9.2 RPG. He will be a starter at the small forward position for the Suns this season. In addition, SG Davon Reed, the 32nd pick this year’s draft, also performed in the Summer League, averaging 14.9 PPG and 4.9 RPG. Unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury and will be out 4-6months. With Brandon Knight’s season-ending ACL injury, beyond Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker, there is not much talent or depth on this team and the Suns will be light in the backcourt. While they discarded a lot of dead wood, they are young and rebuilding. Anything higher than the cellar will be an accomplishment.

Betting nugget: The Suns are 21-6 ATS as home dogs against foes off back-to-back SUATS wins, including 18-4 ATS in non-division games.

Portland Trail Blazers (42.5) – The Blazers edged out the Nuggets for the final playoff spot last season. This season, with Denver and Minnesota stronger and Portland virtually unchanged from last year’s squad, there figures to be a heated battled for the final two spots in the Western Conference playoff race. Once again guards Damon Lillard and CJ McCollum will lead the charge. The key, however, will be continued improvement from C Jusuf Nurkic, who exploded onto the scene with Portland following his mid-season acquisition from Denver.

Betting nugget: The Blazers are 30-17-1 ATS as division home dogs, including 6-0 ATS following a win of 6 or more points.

Sacramento Kings (28.5) – Despite an inability to find a consistent starting lineup last season with the mid-season trade of DeMarcus Cousins to New Orleans, the Kings still managed to win 32 games. They added plenty of young talent this offseason, along with a few veterans (read: Zach Randolph, George Hill, and Vince Carter – who seems like he’s 50 years old). De’Aaron Fox (the 5th pick in this year’s draft from Kentucky) and Frank Mason III (college basketball’s Player of the Year last season) are welcome additions. With the continued maturation of SG Buddy Hield, look for the improvement to continue in Sacramento this season.

Betting nugget: The Kings are 14-7 ATS as double-digit division road dogs, including 7-1 ATS following a double-digit loss.

San Antonio Spurs (54.5) – Spurs won 61 regular season games last season en route to winning the Southwest Division. The core of the team returns along with new addition Rudy Gay (18.7 PPG and 6.3 RPG) who will serve as the team’s 6th man. In addition, the team re-signed C Pau Gasol to a three-year contract extension. Behind team MVP Kawhi Leonard, who will miss the preseason nursing a quad injury, I still make them the team to beat ahead of the Rockets in their division.

Betting nugget: The Spurs are 22-10-3 ATS at home without rest, including 13-2-1 ATS following consecutive wins.

Utah Jazz (40.5) – Last year’s season win total for the Northwest Division-winning Jazz was 47.5 so an adjustment has certainly been made for the loss of All-Star F Gordon Hayward and PG George Hill. Ricky Rubio was brought in to secure the backcourt. If newly acquired Thabo Sefolosha (Atlanta) steps up, and Derrick Favors can return to his usual 16 PPG and 8.0 RPG the Jazz, and be playoff performers once again this season. But there are certainly a lot of ‘ifs’ that need to happen.

Betting nugget: Utah is a long-term 27-5 SU and 23-8-1 ATS home off a win against non-rested foes off consecutive SUATS losses, including 19-2 Su and 17-3-1 ATS in non-division games.

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, MARCH 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at ORL 07:00 PM
CHI +6.5
U 210.5

PHI at ATL 07:30 PM
ATL +7.5
U 218.5

DEN at OKC 08:00 PM
DEN +3.5
O 223.0

PHO at HOU 08:00 PM
PHO +17.5
O 217.0

NO at CLE 08:00 PM
NO +4.0
O 228.5

MIN at DAL 08:30 PM
MIN -5.5
U 216.5

MEM at UTA 09:00 PM
MEM +15.0
U 197.0

LAC at POR 10:30 PM
LAC +6.5
U 217.5

MIL at LAL 10:30 PM
LAL -1.5
U 220.0

[Cnotes53]

2017-18 NBA CONFERENCE STANDINGS

EASTERN CONFERENCE W L PCT GB HOME ROAD CONF DIV STREAK L10

1 x-Toronto 55 20 0.733 - 31-7 24-13 36-9 11-3 W1 7-3

2 x-Boston 52 23 0.693 3 24-13 28-10 30-15 10-3 W5 7-3

3 x-Cleveland 45 30 0.600 10 25-11 20-19 32-15 11-5 W1 7-3

4 x-Philadelphia 44 30 0.595 10½ 26-11 18-19 27-18 8-7 W8 9-1

5 x-Indiana 45 31 0.592 10½ 26-13 19-18 31-18 10-6 W4 7-3

6 Washington 41 34 0.547 14 21-17 20-17 26-20 7-6 L1 4-6

7 Miami 41 35 0.539 14½ 24-13 17-22 28-19 9-5 W2 6-4

8 Milwaukee 40 35 0.533 15 23-15 17-20 24-23 6-10 W1 6-4

Detroit 35 40 0.467 20 24-14 11-26 21-26 8-7 W3 6-4

Charlotte 34 42 0.447 21½ 21-18 13-24 20-26 10-4 L1 6-4

o-New York 27 49 0.355 28½ 18-18 9-31 15-31 6-10 L2 3-7

o-Brooklyn 24 51 0.320 31 14-25 10-26 15-30 1-13 W1 4-6

o-Chicago 24 51 0.320 31 15-22 9-29 18-27 4-11 L7 2-8

o-Orlando 22 52 0.297 32½ 15-22 7-30 13-32 4-9 L1 2-8

o-Atlanta 21 54 0.280 34 15-22 6-32 9-36 3-9 L4 1-9



WESTERN CONFERENCE W L PCT GB HOME ROAD CONF DIV STREAK L10

1 y-Houston 61 14 0.813 - 31-6 30-8 38-8 12-3 W10 10-0

2 y-Golden St. 54 21 0.720 7 28-11 26-10 30-16 10-3 L3 3-7

3 Portland 46 29 0.613 15 25-13 21-16 28-17 8-6 L1 7-3

4 San Antonio 44 32 0.579 17½ 30-8 14-24 26-20 8-6 W1 7-3

5 Oklahoma City 44 32 0.579 17½ 26-12 18-20 25-22 5-10 L2 7-3

6 New Orleans 43 32 0.573 18 22-16 21-16 22-24 7-7 L2 5-5

7 Minnesota 43 33 0.566 18½ 28-10 15-23 30-16 9-4 W1 5-5

8 Utah 42 33 0.560 19 24-13 18-20 28-17 6-8 L1 7-3

L.A. Clippers 41 34 0.547 20 21-15 20-19 23-23 12-3 W3 5-5

Denver 40 35 0.533 21 27-10 13-25 24-23 6-6 L2 5-5

o-L.A. Lakers 33 41 0.446 27½ 19-16 14-25 17-28 5-9 W1 4-6

o-Sacramento 24 52 0.316 37½ 13-26 11-26 11-35 4-9 L3 3-7

o-Dallas 23 52 0.307 38 14-24 9-28 13-36 5-11 L1 3-7

o-Memphis 21 54 0.280 40 15-24 6-30 18-28 5-10 W2 3-7

o-Phoenix 19 57 0.250 42½ 9-29 10-28 13-33 3-10 L13 0-10


x-clinched playoff berth
y-denotes division winner
z-clinched top seed in conference
o-eliminated from playoff contention

[Cnotes53]

Friday's Essentials
March 30, 2018
By Tony Mejia


Game of the Night - L.A. Clippers at Portland (-6, 218), ESPN 10:35 ET

The top two seeds in the Western Conference were decided when Houston and Golden State became locked into their spots but figuring out the remaining six positions requires a wild ride that continues tonight with two head-to-head duels between four of the eight teams battling for the vacancies.

Denver, currently 10th, visits Oklahoma City, which fell from its fourth-place perch with a loss to San Antonio last night. For the Nuggets, it feels like an elimination game.

Capping the night will be the current No. 3 seed, Portland, hosting the Clippers, who have crept up to ninth thanks to a three-game winning streak that sees them open the night one game behind Utah for the eighth final berth.

The sense of urgency should be high for both teams since the Trail Blazers come off a loss and are only 2.5 games up on the Thunder, though they have now secured the tie-breaker if the teams end up even atop the Northwest Division thanks to Sunday’s immense 108-105 road win at OKC.


What this becomes for the Western Conference’s biggest surprise is a test of just how much they have left in the tank. The Blazers are playing their fifth game in eight days and fell on the second night of a back-to-back without Damian Lillard in Memphis on Wednesday. They lost despite C.J. McCollum scoring 42 points after missing only nine of 25 shots.

Portland isn't sure if it will gets its All-Star back for this one after he left the team to witness the berth of his first son since he's now questionable after news broke that his 20-year-old half-brother was shot at a lmall late last night.

Paternity leave is no picnic given the mental grind of how hectic a birth can be, not to mention having to worry about a family member, so we'll see what frame of mind he's in if he plays, but Lillard should have his legs under him if he does go.

We’ll see whether the same can be said for his teammates since Jusuf Nurkic’s back has been an issue and Mo Harkless’ Wednesday knee surgery has significantly trimmed depth on the wing.

Since defeating the Clippers at Staples on March 18, the Blazers are just 2-3. They come off their longest road trip since the All-Star break and go right back out following Sunday’s rematch with the Grizzlies, squaring off with all three Texas-based teams before finishing up in Denver on April 9. Portland would love for its season finale on the 11th against Utah to mean absolutely nothing, but it can only gain such security by holding up over a taxing final stretch.

If misery loves company, the right partner is in town. The Clippers are playing for the 10th time in 16 days, eight of which will have been on the road by the time they finally head back to L.A. to finish with five of six at home. They’ve played in Houston, Oklahoma City, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Indianapolis and Toronto. All of the teams that play in those cities are likely to be playoff bound. Portland too.

Of the Clippers’ remaining opponents, only the Lakers, who they finish up with April 11, are currently under .500. Getting back home with a fourth straight win would be provide a huge boost. Head coach Doc Rivers will be pulling out all the stops, which could include the return of wing Danilo Gallinari, who last played in the first game after the All-Star break. He fractured his hand on Feb. 22.

Point guard Milos Teodosic will remain out with a foot injury, so 23-year-old former G-League standout Tyrone Wallace will continue to receive a boost in minutes as a starter filling a role next to either Austin Rivers or Lou Williams. Rookies Sindarius Thornwell and C.J. Williams would continue to see time behind Wesley Johnson on the wing if Gallinari can’t return, which is why the Italian’s experience would be a major upgrade against a team that can fill it up from the perimeter.

The Clippers won the first meeting against the Blazers at the Moda Center 104-103, but have dropped the two more recent meetings at home. Harkless was instrumental in the March 18 win, so Portland will have to replace his production and has to be worried that he was part of a starting unit that score 98 of the team’s 122 points. Williams outscored Portland’s bench by himself, so it’s vital that Evan Tucker and Pat Connaughton produce on the wing.

L.A. has seen the under prevail in four straight games, while the low-side is 8-6 in Blazers games this month. The under is 2-1 in this season’s encounters. Portland has shot 29.3 percent from beyond the arc over its last five but shot 14-for-29 in the win at the Clips less than two weeks ago. Keeping that from happening again is likely the Clippers’ biggest concern, especially on the road.

The Trail Blazers have lost two straight at Moda Center after winning nine consecutive home games between Feb. 14-Mar. 17. The Clippers have the 10th-best road record in the NBA and have won in each of their last two visits to Portland.

The Celtics are playing only their second back-to-back since the All-Star break -- their first this entire month. They won a road back-to-back at Detroit and New York on Feb. 23-24 to improve to 7-4 on the second night of such situations this season. They've got two more remaining in April, with the next one coming in Milwaukee and Toronto next week, making it the most important of the season.

Injury Report

The 76ers will open life without Joel Embiid, who they're expected to be with until at least the beginning of the playoffs after orbital surgery on a fracture suffered when he collided with rookie Markell Fultz. Amir Johnson, who would likely see some extended time due to Embiid's absence, is questionable with the flu. We'll see who steps up for Philadelphia without the big man available. This could be where Ben Simmons wins or loses his Rookie of the Year Award.

Philly won't have to square off against Hawks point guards Dennis Schroder and Malcolm Delaney due to ankle injuries, which means athletic second-year guard Isaiah Taylor should get the bulk of the minutes at the controls.

Kevin Love is in concussion protocol after the nasty injury he suffered earlier this week, but the Cavs should get Kyle Korver back after he's been away from the team mourning his brother's death.

New Orleans hosts Cleveland in the first half of ESPN's nationally televised doubleheader but won't know if it will have guard Rajon Rondo back to help run the show since he's missed the last two games due to an injured wrist. The Pelicans do know they'll have Anthony Davis in there after he practiced and declared himself ready to go following an ankle sprain. Forward Solomon Hill, out most of the season, is back and should see time against LeBron James.

The Nuggets again won't have shooting guard Gary Harris for the huge clash with the Thunder, which is a major blow since he was targeting a Friday return from a knee injury that's cost him the last few games. Denver will miss his presence against Russell Westbrook and Paul George.

The Timberwolves are getting closer to getting Jimmy Bulter back from a knee injury, but will have to make due without him tonight against Memphis. Derrick Rose has provided a boost, but is dealing with an ankle issue and may not be available against Memphis.

Phoenix is again unlikely to get back Devin Booker from his hand injury and has already ruled out T.J. Warren due to a sore knee. With centers Alex Len (ankle) and Tyson Chandler (neck) likely absent too, the kids will suit up in Houston, where we could see a 20-point spread if James Harden returns as expected following a rest day. Chris Paul (hip) could take his respite tonight, while Phoenix counterpart Elfrid Payton is also questionable due to a knee issue after not practicing on Thursday.

The Grizzlies won't have Tyreke Evans available again and have also ruled out standout defender Andrew Harrison due to a wrist issue. Chandler Parsons will be available against Utah, which is deep, loaded and desperate for a win. There's no number here at the time of this writing, but it's likely to be heavy lumber too.

Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton each tweaked ankles in Thursday night's rout of Golden State, but are expected to play against the Lakers. Lonzo Ball has been diagnosed with only a knee contusion after an MRI following Wednesday's win over Dallas, but he may rest for L.A., which could give some of his minutes to returning guard Josh Hart (hand).

[Cnotes53]

Dinero Tracker - March 30
March 30, 2018
By Tony Mejia


Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 1-6 | NCAA BB: 1-1 | MLB: 3-4

The baseball was exciting on Day 1. The basketball left much to be desired, from silly refs who think people come to games to watch them throw out superstars to unfortunate injuries to Otto Porter, unsuccessful hero ball out of OKC and the sad reality that the best game of the night ended up being Pacers-Kings. There's plenty of venting to do. I saw that Flavor Flav is still rocking that clock. Here's Thursday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Dodgers/Giants UNDER 7.5 -115
Johnny Cueto is looking to bounce back, but isn't likely to get much run support since the new-look Giants aren't likely to do a whole lot better against the talented Alex Wood than they did against Clayton Kershaw. Of course, the Dodgers can't be trusted since apparently Justin Turner's injury and subsequent absence has sapped all of their abilities at the plate. Ride the under.


THURSDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Indians RL -1.5 +100
Felix Hernandez is only 31 years old as he takes the mound tonight, so this is isn't about him being over the hill. He's lost more than a step, but that's no reason he can't bounce back this season. I just don't think he's ready to make this Opening Day start after missing so much of spring training after catching a line drive to his forearm this time last month. He returned to start against the Cubs a week ago and hasn't faced any adversity. It makes a great story that he's making an MLB-best 10th straight start and Safeco provides a great backdrop, but he was just 4-3 there last year and is matched up with Corey Kluber, whose beard is in midseason form. He won four Cactus League games and has looked great, so let's not reinvent the wheel on the first day. Ride Cleveland to get 2018 off to a great start with a comfortable win over Seattle, laying 1.5 on the run line at even money.

Result: Hernandez got in a groove early, got run support from Nelson Cruz's early 2-run homer and then got Edwin Diaz to close the door after more trouble than he'll likely run into on most saves. He's a great one and I didn't expect to see him to end the night. Freebie lost. Kluber did his thing, throwing seven scoreless after his mistake, but the Tribe had very little and didn't get the big hit we needed in the 7th and 9th.

THURSDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Penn State -4
The Nittany Lions will look to wrap up a season where they felt they had done in enough to get into the NCAAs by claiming the NIT at Madison Square Garden with another great performance. Justin Bibbins hasn't been shooting the ball well as it is, isn't going to get to the line 12 times, and can't be counted on to deliver in a second game in three nights, especially after 40 exhausting minutes. Here's your fun fact, on the second of either a back-to-back or two-game-three-night situation, Bibbins has shot 14-for-50 from beyond the arc. That's 28 percent and simply not worth banking on. Ride Penn State to win the NIT, guaranteed.  

Result: Bibbins had a decent night, scoring 15, while Sedrick Barefield helped keep the Utes in this game by draining his first four 3s, helping set a faster pace I didn't prefer since I double-dipped on the under. The Nittany Lions tightened up the defense and ran away, winning 82-66. Penn State was dominant in New York. After losing Mike Watkins, everybody took it upon themselves to do more.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Kings/Pacers UNDER 203.5
The Pacers were impressive in locking up the Warriors the other night, getting a key stretch where they'll play six of seven on the road off of a fantastic note. The Kings have only topped the century mark once in their last six games, have no homecourt advantage whatsoever due to the current protests and probably won't have Indiana native Zach Randolph playing too large a role after sitting him out entirely the other night after finally getting over a bout with the stomach flu. Ride the under, guaranteed.

Result: The Kings got a great first half from Willie Cauley-Stein and were only down 59-56 at the break, so this game got away quickly. The game finally slowed down to what I expected in the second half, but Victor Oladipo was too effective down the stretch and the Kings got really solid shot-making out of Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Frank Mason to foil the guaranteed winner and the cover. With three minutes left, the Pacers led 99-91 and it looked like knocking down both side and total had a chance with a few more stops, but it wasn't meant to be. Thad Young missed a pair of key free throws and the Kings caught life as a result, killing this bet.

BAD BEAT BULLETIN

The pick: Heat -13
All hands are on deck for the Heat tonight with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Johnson have been ruled in and Hassan Whiteside will in fact return. The Bulls have ruled out Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Paul Zipser and Cristiano Felicio and weren't planning on utilizing Zach LaVine, so this is really a game that the home team should and will control. Lay the points and ride Miami.

Result: This was incredibly annoying. Miami finally took this by the throat to open the fourth, leading 91-72 with 8:27 left. The Heat could never shake the Bulls, but took a 103-90 lead with 1:05 left, got the ball back immediately after a miss and a turnover and sat on both possessions. They didn't even attempt to run offense despite a few back cuts that would've scored, then gave up an uncontested layup at the buzzer. Bobby Portis put it in to make it 103-92. Hideous.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Astros/Rangers UNDER 9.5
Historically, Justin Verlander's least effective month is April, but as you get older, you tend to be more diligent in getting your body ready. He's owned some of the hitters he'll face today (Odor/Gallo are a combined 1-for-27) and had a great spring, while Cole Hamels has really fared well against George Springer and Carlos Correa (3-for-36) and has fared well in Arlington, so we'll take a shot that the pitching will hold up on Opening Day despite the power in both lineups. Ride the under.

Result: Verlander was fantastic in surrendering just four hits over six innings and the bullpen held down the Rangers, limiting them to one run in the ninth in a 4-1 win.



UPSET CITY

The pick: Dodgers -1.5 RL -135
Clayton Kershaw hasn't allowed a run all spring and his career ERA vs Giants is 1.60, so you take your chances that the Dodgers are going to be able to scratch together enough runs to win this comfortably. Giants lefty Ty Blach's career ERA vs Dodgers is 2.23 over 7 games and even better if you consider he's surrendered just five runs over 30 innings in his last five outings, all starts. Ride the Dodgers on the run line -1.5.

Result: This result knocked off most money-line parlays since the game's top pitcher is so reliable. The Dodgers couldn't buy a clutch hit in losing 1-0 because Kershaw gave up a fluke homer to Joe Panik.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Orioles ML -118
Dylan Bundy showed off a fantastic fastball to close out the spring in order to secure this Opening Day start, so he should be in good shape in this matchup against former Tampa Rays starter Jake Odorizzi. This looks like the best bet for the price on Thursday, so it rides as the first 2018 MLB guarantee. The Orioles should see Manny Machado, Trey Mancini and Jonathan Schoop string together hits in playing rude host against the Twins. Back Baltimore.

Result: Odorizzi pitched a great game, stranding Manny Machado a couple of times, but the Birds got a clutch two-run double from Caleb Joseph and were in a position to cash easily before blowing the save. I wished great relief pitiching on all of you and immediately caught a Brad Brach bad break. Fortunately, despite a really uncomfortable few innings that included Jonathan Schoop hitting into a bases-loaded double play, Adam Jones came to the rescue in the bottom of the 11th with a walk-off blast off Francisco Rodney. Hallelujah.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Wizards +1
This was supposed to be Blake Griffin's first run against the Wizards all season since he missed the one meeting when with the Clips and hasn't faced them since putting on a Pistons uniform. It looks like he'll miss out against the Wiz all season after being ruled out with an ankle injury. Although they won't have John Wall back until the weekend, this is a great situation for guys to step up and ensure they stay in Scott Brooks' rotation when the team is back intact. Ride Washington.

Result: Although Washington took advantage of Griffin's absence early, Detroit hung around thanks to Andre Drummond's work and simply took over once Otto Porter left the floor unable to put weight on his leg. The Pistons won handily 103-92.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Cubs RL -1.5 -119
The Marlins will open at home, but given how disgruntled the fan base is, the odds of Fish backers outnumbering Cubs fans aren't great. With JT Realmuto and Cameron Maybin not in the lineup, a gutted squad takes the field against Jon Lester, who should get support against Jose Urena. Ride Chicago -1.5 on the run line in Opening Day's first offering.

Result: Jay Happ left the yard on the game's first at-bat and Chicago rallied after surrendering a 4-1 lead, ultimately doubling up the Fish 8-4.

FURTHER PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Spurs/Thunder UNDER 208
With LaMarcus Aldridge in, there's likely to be less ball movement than what would've been the case with a lineup featuring Rudy Gay and Kyle Anderson up front, which I believe will bog this game down. Gregg Popovich should be able to keep Russell Westbrook from attacking how he'd like to, which should lead to a lower-scoring affair than expected. Ride the under.

Result: Aldridge looked much sharper than I expected him to as he dominated the first half with 19 points, but the game did slow down in the second half, allowing us to overcome a 115-point first half in pulling this out thanks to Russell Westbrook failing to share down the stretch. The Spurs won 103-99.

[Cnotes53]

Hoop Trends - Friday
March 30, 2018

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Bucks are 11-0 ATS (11.09 ppg) with no rest after they shot over 50% from the field last game.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Clippers are 15-0-2 OU (12.85 ppg) as a dog off a 10+ point win as a road favorite.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pelicans are 0-10-1 OU (-10.86 ppg) off a game as a dog in which Jrue Holiday had at least 5 turnovers.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Trail Blazers are 0-12-1 OU (-11.27 ppg) as a favorite after a loss in which they led by double digits.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Suns are 10-0 OU (15.70 ppg) on the road off a loss as a dog in which they had more than 12 steals.

-- The Rockets are 0-8 ATS (-8.69 ppg) after Chris Paul played fewer than 30 minutes last game.

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, March 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (24 - 51) at ORLANDO (22 - 52) - 3/30/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 66-87 ATS (-29.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ORLANDO is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-5 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (44 - 30) at ATLANTA (21 - 54) - 3/30/2018, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (43 - 32) at CLEVELAND (45 - 30) - 3/30/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (40 - 35) at OKLAHOMA CITY (44 - 32) - 3/30/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
DENVER is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 30-44 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-38 ATS (-18.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (19 - 57) at HOUSTON (61 - 14) - 3/30/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 9-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (43 - 33) at DALLAS (23 - 52) - 3/30/2018, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 32-45 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 368-434 ATS (-109.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-40 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 409-335 ATS (+40.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
DALLAS is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-5 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (21 - 54) at UTAH (42 - 33) - 3/30/2018, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-4 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (40 - 35) at LA LAKERS (33 - 41) - 3/30/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 3-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CLIPPERS (41 - 34) at PORTLAND (46 - 29) - 3/30/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 220-274 ATS (-81.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PORTLAND is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in March games this season.
PORTLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-33 ATS (+4.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a division game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 8-8 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Cnotes53]

NBA

Friday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO @ ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Chicago

PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia

NEW ORLEANS @ CLEVELAND
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

DENVER @ OKLAHOMA CITY
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

PHOENIX @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix

MINNESOTA @ DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

MEMPHIS @ UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing Utah
Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Memphis

MILWAUKEE @ LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
LA Lakers is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
LA Lakers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee

LA CLIPPERS @ PORTLAND
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
Portland is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 30

Bulls won six of last seven games with the Magic; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Last ten series games stayed under the total. Chicago lost its last seven games; they’re 2-11 vs spread in last 13 games as road underdogs. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Orlando lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 1-9 as home favorites this season. Four of their last five games stayed under.

Embiid (orbital fracture) is out. Hawks won seven of last eight games with Philly, six of which went over total. 76ers are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Atlanta. Sixers won their last eight games, covered last six; they’re 3-7 in last ten games as road favorites. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Atlanta lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 4-7 in last 11 games as home dogs. Six of their last nine games went over.

Home side won last seven New Orleans-Cleveland games; Pelicans are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Ohio. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games. New Orleans split its last eight games; they’re 4-2 in last six games as road underdogs. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Cavaliers won six of their last seven games; they covered last three tries as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Thunder lost three of last four games with Denver; under is 4-1 in last five series games. Nuggets covered three of last four visits to Oklahoma. Denver lost four of its last six games; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as road underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. OKC lost three of its last four games; they’re 4-7 in last 11 games as home favorites, 5-6 if they played night before. Last four Thunder games stayed under.

Rockets won their last seven games with Phoenix (5-2 vs spread); over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Suns are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Houston. Phoenix lost its last ten games; they are 5-8 in last 13 games as road underdogs. Suns’ last five games stayed under. Houston won its last ten games; they’re 5-1 vs spread in their last six home games. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Minnesota won its last four games with Dallas; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Dallas. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten series games. Timberwolves are 3-4 in last seven games; they’re 1-6 in last seven games as road favorites. Six of their last eight games went over total. Mavericks lost six of their last seven games; they’re 3-6 in last nine games as home underdogs. Last three Dallas games stayed under.

Utah/Memphis split their last ten meetings; Grizzlies are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Utah. Seven of last nine series games stayed under. Memphis won its last two games after a 1-22 skid; Grizzlies are 2-4 vs spread in last six games as road underdog. Six of their last nine games went over total. Jazz lost three of last five games; they’re 0-3 vs spread in last three games as a home favorite. Three of their last four games went over.

Bucks won three of last four games with the Lakers; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four series tilts played here. Three of last four series games stayed under. Milwaukee won three of its last four games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six games as road underdogs. Nine of their last ten games went over the total. Los Angeles lost five of its last seven games; they’re 8-5 as home favorites this year. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Portland is 6-4 in its last ten games with the Clippers; over is 5-3 in last eight series games. LA is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Oregon. Clippers won four of their last five games; they’re 2-4 in last six games as a road underdog. Last four Clipper games stayed under. Trailblazers are 2-3 in their last five games; they’re 7-1 vs spread in last eight games as home favorites. Four of their last six games went over.

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Opening Day attendance figures:

— Cubs @ Marlins: 32,151 (mostly Cub fans)

— Cardinals @ Mets: 44,189, including Phil/Evan Pivnick

— Twins @ Orioles: 45,469

— Astros @ Rangers: 47,253

— Red Sox @ Rays: 31,042

— Angels @ A’s: 27,764. Hey the A’s are tied for first place. This was their first daytime home opener since 1994.

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Wrapping up Opening Day and other stuff

13) I used to be a minor league official scorer, long time ago (back when I had hair); if I kept score of games today, I’d code the field 3-9 instead of players, to account for shifting in the field.

For instance, Houston used four OF’s vs Joey Gallo Thursday; he flied out to 3B Alex Bregman, who was playing in left field. Traditional scoring would say F5, since Bregman plays 3B, but I’d say F7, since Gallo hit the ball to left field.

I’d supplement my scorebook with written notes on who actually caught the ball, but thats how I’d score a game now. Just think it would be more accurate.

12) Rays 6, Red Sox 4— Chris Sale allowed no runs, one hit in six IP (92 PT), then the Boston bullpen blew the lead in the 8th inning, allowing four walks, two hits, with Denard Span’s 3-run triple the big hit.

11) Dodger TV guy Joe Davis said there were 90 mound visits (90!!!) in Game 7 of the World Series last year. the limit this year will be six per team; ummm, thats a little different.

10) Cubs 8, Marlins 4- Roof was open at Marlins’ Park Thursday; it was open for six home games out of 78 LY and Miami was 0-6 in those games. Marlins are not a MLB-quality team right now- they’re going to lose a lot of games.

For the record, Ian Happ was the first batter this season and he hit a home run.

9) If you care about such things, Josh Donaldson led MLB last year, 15 1st-inning homers. Giancarlo Stanton was next, with 14. Stanton hit one in the first inning in Toronto Thursday, and then he hit another one in the 9th inning.

8) Astros 4, Rangers 1— When Joey Gallo batted with bases empty, Houston played four guys in OF with no fielders on left side of the infield. Actually, Altuve was in the OF too, in short RF, so they had five guys in the outfield.

7) McDonald’s All-American Darius Bazley decommitted from Syracuse, becoming the first top high school prospect to choose turning pro in the G League, where he’ll make $26,000, instead of spending a few months in college. Maybe he’ll get a small shoe contract.

Bazley is a 6-9 kid from the Cincinnati area; he’ll sign a pro contract when he turns 18 in June. Big gamble on his part— if he were to get hurt, then what? If he gets hurt in college, he’s still in college and has the school’s resources at his disposal. He won’t be property of an NBA team next year, just the G-League team. He’ll be eligible for the 2019 NBA Draft.

6) White Sox 11, Royals 4— Matt Davidson hit three homers for Chicago; maybe I should’ve picked him up in my fantasy league, back when he was available. Whoops.

5) RIP Rusty Staub 73, who played 23 years in the big leagues, breaking in with the Houston Colt .45’s in 1963. Le Grand Orange, as he was known in Montreal, made six All-Star teams and had a career OB% of .362 with 292 career homers. He owned a popular restaurant in Manhattan for years after he retired from playing.

Think about how times have changed; in 1963, there was a baseball team named after a gun and an NBA team called the Baltimore Bullets.

4) Braves 8, Phillies 5— Phils led this game 5-2 in 8th, but Atlanta rallied, and Nick Markakis hit a walk-off homer to send Braves fans home happy.

Atlanta catcher Tyler Flowers is the first player this season to leave a game with an injury— he suffered an oblique injury in the second inning.

3) Orioles 3, Twins 2 (11)— Not 100% sure, but Zach Duke may very well be the first pitcher ever to strike out four batters in an inning on Opening Day- he struck out four Orioles in the 7th inning.

Adam Jones hit a walk-off homer in the 11th inning to send everyone home happy, after Orioles blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning.

2) Brewers 2, Padres 1 (12)— Bill Schroeder is a former big league catcher who is a really good analyst; Padres had two on, one out in the 7th inning Thursday with Milwaukee leading 1-0, and Schroeder says more than once (three times??) that reliever Josh Hader can get Austin Hedges out with a slider, almost like he is trying to use telepathy to get him to throw it.

Eventually, Hader throws the slider and strikes Hedges out.

1— Louisville QB Lamar Jackson threw 59 passes, took snaps under center in front of reps from all 32 NFL teams Thursday, but he wouldn’t run a 40-yard dash, because everyone knows he is fast enough to play QB and he ain’t interested in being a wide receiver. Good for him.

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY MARCH 30, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:00 PM Chicago Bulls Orlando Magic Amway Center
7:30 PM Philadelphia 76ers Atlanta Hawks Philips Arena
8:00 PM Denver Nuggets Oklahoma City Thunder Chesapeake Energy Arena
8:00 PM New Orleans Pelicans Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena
8:00 PM Phoenix Suns Houston Rockets Toyota Center
8:30 PM Minnesota Timberwolves Dallas Mavericks American Airlines Center
9:00 PM Memphis Grizzlies Utah Jazz Vivint Smart Home Arena
10:30 PM Los Angeles Clippers Portland Trail Blazers Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
10:30 PM Milwaukee Bucks Los Angeles Lakers Staples Center


***************

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/29/2018 7-3-0 70.00% +18.50
03/27/2018 7-9-0 43.75% -145.0
03/26/2018 5-5-0 50.00% -250
03/25/2018 5-12-1 29.41% -4100
03/24/2018 5-7-0 41.67% -1350
03/23/2018 4-15-1 21.05% -6250
03/22/2018 10-2-0 83.33% +3900
03/21/2018 8-7-1 53.33% +150
03/20/2018 9-5-0 64.29% +1750
03/19/2018 10-6-0 62.50% +1700
03/18/2018 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
03/17/2018 9-13-0 40.91% -26.50
03/16/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
03/15/2018 5-13-0 27.78% -46.50
03/14/2018 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
03/13/2018 13-8-0 61.90% +21.00
03/12/2018 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
03/11/2018 10-8-0 55.56% +6.00
03/10/2018 7-3-0 70.00% +18.50
03/09/2018 13-7-0 65.00% +26.50
03/08/2018 4-6-0 40.00% -13.00
03/07/2018 4-10-0 28.57% -35.00
03/06/2018 7-7-1 50.00% -3.50
03/05/2018 7-7-0 50.00% -3.50
03/04/2018 5-9-0 35.71% -24.50
03/03/2018 10-4-0 71.43% +28.00
03/02/2018 9-10-0 47.37% -10.00
03/01/2018 6-2-0 83.00% +19.00


Totals...........182 - 199......48.57%....- 94.50

[Cnotes53]

Spurs beat OKC, now 4th in West
March 29, 2018

SAN ANTONIO (AP) LaMarcus Aldridge had 25 points and 11 rebounds, and the San Antonio Spurs held off the Oklahoma City Thunder 103-99 on Thursday night to climb back into fourth place in the Western Conference.

San Antonio matched Oklahoma City at 44-32 in jumping two spots in the standings. The Thunder are fifth, a half-game ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans.

Aldridge scored 19 points in the first half, then drove past Steven Adams for a dunk and a three-point lead with 52 seconds left as the Spurs snapped a two-game slide.

Paul George led Oklahoma City with 26 points and had six assists. Russell Westbrook added 19 points and 11 assists, but had a pair of 3-pointer miss the rim and land out of bounds in the final minutes.

BUCKS 116, WARRIORS 107

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 32 points, Kevin Durant's return from a rib injury ended early with a second-quarter ejection, and Milwaukee beat Golden State.

The Bucks beat the Warriors for just the second time in their past 10 meetings and stayed five games ahead of Detroit for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Sidelined by a fractured rib the previous six games, Durant argued after no foul was called on a drive through three defenders. Official Tre Maddox whistled him for a technical foul, then gave him another and tossed him with 2.4 seconds left. Khris Middleton converted two free throws to cap an 11-0 run that gave Milwaukee a 58-49 halftime lead.

Still without Stephen Curry (ankle sprain) and Klay Thompson (broken thumb), the Warriors lost their third straight game and seventh in their past 10 outings. Houston clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, and Golden State fell a game behind East-leading Toronto for the NBA's second-best record.

PISTONS 103, WIZARDS 92

DETROIT (AP) - Andre Drummond scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds, and Detroit beat Washington for its fifth win in six games.

The Pistons remained five games behind the Milwaukee Bucks for the last Eastern Conference playoff spot. The Bucks won at the Golden State Warriors later on Thursday.

Detroit was missing power forward Blake Griffin, who was a late scratch with an ankle contusion. Griffin is averaging 19.8 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists in 25 games since joining Detroit late January.

Anthony Tolliver, starting for Griffin, scored 14 points, while Reggie Jackson finished with 13 points and eight assists.

Bradley Beal had 15 points for Washington and Kelly Oubre added 14. The Wizards have lost four of five.

HEAT 103, BULLS 92

MIAMI (AP) - Josh Richardson scored 22 points, Goran Dragic added 17 and Miami trimmed its magic number for clinching a playoff berth to one by topping Chicago.

Justise Winslow scored 13 points and Kelly Olynyk finished with 11 for the Heat (41-35), who've won a season-best eight consecutive home games and moved within a half-game of Washington for the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

The Heat need one more win or one more Detroit loss to wrap up their 20th postseason trip in 30 seasons. The Pistons are in New York on Saturday, in a game that should be over before the start of Miami's home game against Brooklyn.

Bulls center Robin Lopez was ejected after picking up a pair of technicals with 8:43 remaining, ending his 13-point, six-rebound night. The Bulls dropped their seventh straight, making this the third losing streak that lasted at least that long for Chicago this season.

PACERS 106, KINGS 103

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - Victor Oladipo scored 13 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter, including a pair of free throws with 2.5 seconds remaining, and Indiana held on to beat Sacramento.

Bojan Bogdanovic had 25 points, Thaddeus Young added 18 points and eight rebounds, and Darren Collison finished with eight points and nine assists against his former team to help the Pacers extend their winning streak to four.

Indiana remained percentage points behind fourth-place Philadelphia in the East.

Cyclone fences were erected around Golden1 Center and extra members of law enforcement in riot gear were lined up outside the arena in anticipation of a possible third day of protests over the fatal police shooting of Stephon Adams, an unarmed 22-year-old African-American who was shot in his grandparents' backyard on March 18 as police searched for a person suspected of attempting to break into several homes.

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, MARCH 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at DET 07:00 PM
DET +1.5
O 208.5

CHI at MIA 07:30 PM
CHI +13.0
U 208.5

OKC at SA 08:00 PM
SA +4.0
U 208.0

IND at SAC 10:00 PM
SAC +8.0
U 202.5

MIL at GS 10:30 PM
MIL +5.0
U 215.0

[Cnotes53]

Hoop Trends - Thursday
March 29, 2018

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Bulls are 0-11 ATS (-6.59 ppg) on the road with rest after they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average last game.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pistons are 16-0-1 OU (10.59 ppg) at home off a win as a home favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pacers are 0-11 OU (-16.23 ppg) on the road after Victor Oladipo was their high scorer last game.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Wizards are 11-0 OU (16.64 ppg) coming off a 10+ point win as a dog in which they shot over 50% from the field.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Bucks are 0-11 ATS (-7.09 ppg) with rest coming off a game as a dog.

-- The Bucks are 10-0 OU (19.35 ppg) after Eric Bledsoe had at least 5 turnovers last game.

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 29


Washington @ Detroit

Game 701-702
March 29, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
119.083
Detroit
122.545
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 1
210
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-1); Under

Chicago @ Miami

Game 703-704
March 29, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
103.988
Miami
122.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 18 1/2
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 13
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-13); Over

Oklahoma City @ San Antonio

Game 705-706
March 29, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
120.894
San Antonio
121.774
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 1
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 2
207 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+2); Under

Indiana @ Sacramento

Game 707-708
March 29, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
119.540
Sacramento
115.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 4
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 8
203
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+8); Over

Milwaukee @ Golden State

Game 709-710
March 29, 2018 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
115.304
Golden State
122.785
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 4 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-4 1/2); Over